6-4-2 — an Angels/Dodgers double play blog

It's hard to see clearly this early in the season -- there just aren't enough innings yet. But my Dodger-sense is whispering: Gagné isn't the same guy who took the mound last year or even the year before. His K/9 is down -- way down -- from last year's 14.98, only posting 8.31 so far this year. This is consistent with my memory of recent games he's pitched: getting a lot more flyballs and ground outs, and few -- compared to last year -- strikeouts. That's only good enough for third on the team, after Sanchez and Perez. And again tonight: a four-out outing, and nary a strikeout.

Dodger fans are often quick to mention steroids in conjunction with Barry Bonds. Though I hesitate to say it -- could Gagné be settling back to earth after a superhuman ride with performance enhancing drugs?

Rocky Mountain Lie

Via Will Carroll, a great piece in Slate about why the Rocks are so awful, blaming altitude obsession -- which spawned that infamous humidor as well as poor spending habits (uh, Arte, are you listening?)-- and an inability to discern from real talent for their failures. A good read.

OT: In The CD Player

At work, at least, for months, on and off: Tift Merritt's "Bramble Rose". I haven't encountered a singer-songwriter who came out as strongly and fully-formed since... oh, Carole King? Fantastic alt-country chops with a voice to die for.

Prior Throwing On The Mound

I forgot to mention that Mark Prior is throwing off the mound, though there's still no official timetable for his return. Will Caroll in yesterday's BP "Under the Knife" column estimates "between four and six weeks to get ready once the Achilles tendon is asymptomatic" (emphasis mine). Dusty, start thinking about why and how you can get your top guys off BP's pitcher abuse points leaderboard.

Grudz Down

For those few who still wish we had kept Grudzielanek, in that same BP column, it looks like the man with the unspellable name is out for three weeks with a frayed Achilles tendon. I, for one, liked the Grudz/Karros/Hundley trade; it dragged out the pain for the Dodgers, but it took two bad contracts off the team's hands, and in a less pitcher-friendly park, Grudz actually blossomed.

Dodgers Bash Wells, Padres, 11-4

One of the problems of covering two teams is that sometimes you miss good games -- like last night's 11-4 victory over the Pads at Petco. Wells wasn't sharp, it seems, but Ishii was, going into the seventh inning for the first time in memory; his tank usually runs out at five or six innings. But the big story was Green going 4-4 with a walk -- an OBP of 1.000 -- and two doubles. He's the most overpaid doubles hitter in the league, but at least he's still productive. Having Bradley in the lineup seems to have added life to him. And heck, even Duaner Sanchez -- I'm still giggling about that name -- got an inning in with no harm done.

New MLB.com Stuff

I've already commented in passing about the changes to MLB.com's Gameday product (which still doesn't work on the Mac, grumble, grumble). But has anyone noticed the new improved player biographies? Typically, the Dodgers and Angels both pay attention to this, but it has been spotty for other teams; no more. Here's the bio for Encarnacion, containing recent news, splits-at-a-glance, a last-ten-games summary, fantasy comparisons, expanded stats, and more. The jury's still out on the home page slideshow, though; it's kind of distracting when you're trying to find a particular story.

Daily News: Bott To The Reds?

This has got to be a typo:

This time, the Reds got minor-league left-hander Glenn Bott, who was assigned to Double-A Jacksonville (Fla.) and not added to the 40-man roster. That was the key, because Looper was taking up a 40-man spot and had to be designated for assignment on opening day when the Reds purchased the contracts of spring training invitees Jose Lima, Jose Hernandez and Olmedo Saenz.

Huh? Nothing about that on Transaction Guy, to whose site I added a link today.

The great thing about ugly is its diversity. For instance, here's a new kinda ugly I came across today, the 10 worst album covers of all time. Then there's James Lileks' discoveries in the cookbooks of yore, The Gallery of Regrettable Food. As a kid growing up in the 60's, I can vouch that my mom not only made dinner from some of these recipes, but they actually looked like the pictures included therein. It's a wonder I didn't run away to become some kind of skinny aesthete who only eats tofu and string beans.

And then there's tonight's game.

Let's face it: Ortiz is never going to be anything beyond a number four. Four earned runs in 5 2/3 innings? At this rate, I'll be happy if he gets his ERA below 5.00. While it wasn't a blowout, this is beginning to look like the upper limit of Ortiz's ability. Fortunately, he managed to get reasonable run support, even though he gave up a two-run tater -- would it be an Ortiz outing without one? Ask for the opposition's ball in the stands -- it's the Ramon Ortiz sign of quality! But all carping aside, the offense didn't stink for most of the game, considering the team was up against historic Angel-killer Freddy Garcia.

If there was any theme to this game, though, it had to be the Moneyball saw closers are overrated. I would have felt a lot better leaving Frankie in the game, but stupid rules are stupid rules, and in went Flyball Percy. One half-inning later, the M's tied it up, 5-5. Mercifully, the Mariners' bullpen obliged us in return and coughed up a walk to Guerrero and two stolen bases to Figgy. Inbetween, Myers managed to peg Guillen on the same damn hand he got hit on earlier in the season. Expect fireworks tomorrow if Guillen's still in the lineup. Jeffy sent one deep to Ichiro!, who, arm or no, wasn't able to keep up with DeChone's legs, and the Angels won, 6-5.

A few additional thoughts:

• Just who the hell does Shane Halter think he is? Somebody needs to tell this guy he's only a bench player. Bench players don't have a .375/.444/.500 line. Of course, that was going in to today's game, but driving in two on a gap splitting double goes a long way toward making me feel better about Glaus' continued downtime. Of course, the same comments apply as for Bubba Crosby, but what a fine start for this sub.
• Rah rah rah for the Kingfish having a good night at the plate. 3-4 (one triple shy of the cycle) is a damn fine evening.
• Sean, what's that you're smoking when you're writing about Erstad's purported great season? 10 for 43 is .238, hardly "great". I can dance the sample size tango until the end of April, but Ersty needs to step it up.
• Between K-Rod (I'm disliking the moniker less these days now that he seems to be earning it) and Shields, the bullpen is definitely improving. Weber continues to make me nervous every time he's on the mound. Note to Osama: lose the ultra-goatee. It's just weird. Update: How about that out pitch Shields made to a freshly-hurt Ichiro? Ichiro fouls one off his ankle, and then Shields chases him out of the batter's box with a fastball that looks like it's aimed right for his elbow... only it slides over the plate for strike three. Nice bit of psychology and pitching, that.
• Update: Just who's idea was it to have a gimpy Guerrero run home on a close play? Do we have our own version of the Cubs' "Wavin'" Wendell Kim at the third base coach position?
• Update: if you're an M's fan, you have to be liking this game, even though it was a loss. The team was finally swinging the bats reasonably well, and even managed to prolong the game by a half inning. Sure, the bullpen finally gave out, but it wasn't one of those lopsided laughers the Angels handed the Mariners last week.

Update: corrected Ramon's and Ersty's numbers after the box score was finally published.

Thanks to Baseball Primer's "Clutch Hits" column for this link: ESPN's Rick Sutcliffe interviewed Barry Bonds recently, with Sutcliff surmising Bonds might retire this year if his career numbers surpass Babe Ruth's:

Joey, Nj: Do you think Barry could possibly reach the Hammer by the end of next season?

Rick Sutcliffe: I had a long talk with him on Opening Day. We talked for about 30 minutes and we ran some of it on TV. The feeling I get is he will pass Babe Ruth and go to the house. If he passes Ruth this year, I'd be suprised if he came back next year. I sensed he had a void in his life. He doesn't like being away from his kids. He felt that void growing up. He knows his kids feel the same thing. I think he'll be happy with No. 2. That's what Clemens is doing now. Along with playing at home and all the consessions the Astros made, he wanted to be No. 2 behind Nolan Ryan and I have no doubt he will do that this year.

Edwin Jackson proved he still has a few things to learn, getting shelled for eight hits and six earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work, including a grand slam to the Tacoma Raniers. Word is José Lima will replace him in the rotation starting this weekend. Okaaayyy...

Despite a less-than-brilliant performance, Escobar managed to keep the team in it. Anderson celebrated signing a one-sided contract by going 0-4 with no walks and no RBIs. Shields pitched his way into and out of a jam, but no harm was done, and he managed to pick up the win as well. Erstad went 3-3 with a walk -- boosting his average to .270 -- and even slumping Salmon collected a hit and an RBI, though he did look lost in right field. Guillen smacked a double down the third base line and drove in the winning runs. Heck, even Percy had a good night, retiring all three batters faced (albeit on a remarkably large number of pitches). But the crowning moment in tonight's game had to go to Benjie, who slammed one into the Angels' bullpen to tie the game in the sixth.

Final score, Mariners 5, Angels 7.

The man Athletics Nation calls the "Shaft of baseball" has been resigned for four years with a club option for a fifth. No doubt but this will be a hefty contract, one Purgatory Online estimates is around $11-$13M/year. Here at 6-4-2, we take this as good news that the aliens have returned him, and hopefully none the worse for wear. Thanks for the link, Sean!

Update: on the money, $48M over four years. That's one heck of a big gamble.

Update: The more I think about this, the less I like the deal. GA took advantage of Arte's neck-sticking and got far more in dollars and years than he should have been given. What this comes down to is Stoneman betting that the 37-year-old version of Anderson will hit as well as the 32-year-old version. It's about as bad as the Salmon deal, and will be coincident with it for a couple years. PECOTA (subscription required) projects Anderson to take a substantial dip in value starting this year, with an eye-popping 36.4% collapse rate this year alone. Many of his comps (Tony Oliva 1972, Joe Pepitone 1972, Ted Kluszewski 1956, George Bell 1991, Orlando Cepeda 1969, and Dante Bichette 1995) started or were in the midst of substantial declines. It looks startlingly like another move based more on sentiment than sense. The major caveat with PECOTA is that Anderson only picks up 35 comps, so as crystal balls go, it's a pretty foggy one. Chalk it up to Stoneman's inability to discern from career years, a flaw that got Scott Spiezio resigned as a starting first baseman in 2003.

Update yet again: U.S.S. Mariner agrees with me, and even goes so far as to say Arte could prove to be another Tom Hicks. All that, of course, predicated on PECOTA's accuracy. For sure, I wouldn't have given GA that much dough for that many years.

Weaver = Brown?

Does Baseball Prospectus like the Dodgers' chances this year? Well, maybe. The magazine seems to have a bad case of schizophrenia. One day, they're picking them to finish fourth, and the next they're heaping praise on Paul DePodesta for picking up outfielder/petty criminal Milton Bradley. (As usual, some or all of these links require a BP subscription.) While BP hasn't recalibrated their standings, the news is mostly good on the Dodgers' chances, with Hideo Nomo remaining a big question mark. Joe Sheehan is even more optimistic (Nomo aside), declaring Weaver might be Brown's equal this year:

Jeff Weaver, Dodgers. Part hunch, part context, and his brutal spring doesn't make me feel any better about this selection. While Kevin Brown is the better pitcher of the two, much of the differences between the ERAs of Weaver and Brown last year was context: ballpark, league and defense. You can't make a more extreme move right now than going from Yankee Stadium and their middle infield to Dodger Stadium and theirs. That alone moves the two pitchers to within a run of ERA of each other. I think Weaver takes advantage of the context to get his command back, and ends up having comparable value--within a win, in Support-Neutral or VORP terms--of Brown.

I like Weaver's chances to improve, but I'm not that convinced. As I said earlier, he looks to improve a lot, but a 4.07 ERA is nothing like Kevin Brown's nasty sub-3.00's he regularly posts when healthy. Still, it didn't hurt that his first outing ended in the "W" column.

"Party Arte" All Business

In case you missed it, today's Times carries an article about the Angels under Arte Moreno. Arte's clearly got a game plan: winning breeds financial success. Whether he can pull that off with an unimaginative GM remains to be seen, but he's got a long way to go. TV revenue still "lags far behind the Dodgers'", but this could merely be the prelude to something I've speculated on previously, the opening of a new cable channel:

The Angels' contract with Channel 9 expires next year, and the contract with Fox Sports Net expires in 2008. The Fox contracts with the Lakers, Mighty Ducks and Clippers all expire by 2008, and the Angels have considered the possibility of starting their own cable channel — or threatening to — in partnership with other local pro teams. Disney lost interest in owning the Angels and Ducks after its plans for an ESPN West cable channel collapsed.

"We are exploring everything," Moreno said. "There are some great teams in L.A. You've got showtime there."

And HBO, and Cinemax, etc. The point is, even if this year is less-than-stellar, Arte could spin off his own cable network four years from now, something the Dodgers won't be able to do for years.

The Dodgers traded minor league prospect RHP Aaron Looper back to Seattle for LHP Glen Bott.

Bott, a 22-year-old left-hander, was 7-7 with a 3.16 ERA, 143 strikeouts and 38 walks last year at Single-A. He will report to the Dodgers' Double-A Jacksonville club.

Mariners Wheelhouse has a bit more on this trade, saying that this makes things more even, though I disagree; getting Ketchner was a steal, and if Bott's K/BB ratio is 3.76, I'll take that as a huge positive, even though he's untested above single-A. Score another one for DePodesta.

Bottom of the 3rd

This game is pure vivisection. Wash is shaky against this lineup, not a big surprise; he hasn't had a 1-2-3 inning yet. Colby Lewis is worse, with hideous control problems, but the Angels' offense isn't taking advantage. All tied, 2-2, but the Rangers are outhitting us, 5-2. Wash loses confidence, tries to make a buncha pickoffs with Soriano at first and Teixeira at the plate. Pitch, already. One bona fide strikeout and a popup to Erstad later, the inning's over.

Top of the 4th

Halter unexpectedly doubles, and Molina dribbles him in on a weakly hit single. Molina's batting ninth? Kennedy's moved up to the seven hole. Note to MLB.com: please... fix... Gameday... The batter view is wrong about a quarter of the time, so it looks like Eckstein flied out to center, when it was really Erstad. Man, the E-team is definitely not an E-ticket so far this year -- at least, Ersty isn't.

Top of the 5th

After an uneventful bottom of the third -- good for Wash for finally collecting another K -- Vlad grounds out, but then GA strokes one into center for a single, and Guillen walks. The charge that he's a free swinger is a strong one, so it's nice to see him get a free pass, especially against a pitcher as shaky as Lewis. Grr. Salmon flies out. C'mon, AK, do something. Please to note, "something" does not equal "popping up to the shortstop". Grr.

Bottom of the 6th

Wash gets shaky, and now Blalock singles in two. Enter Osama Ben Weber, with a predictable result: Fullmer clears the bases with a double. Note to self: see if we can get Weber listed in FAA's TIA system so we won't see him in road games. Ha, ha, Brad, very funny. The ironic part is we would be better off having kept him (at 1B, anyway), not signing Guillen, and leave Erstad at center. Oh well. Those uncashed baserunners in the early innings are starting to look expensive now.

Top of the 8th

Angels get on base, Shane Halter (subbing for Troy Glaus, who "tweaked a hamstring" in the wet infield running the bases Sunday) drives one in. 7-4.

Top of the 9th

You call that a closer? But, close it he does, even after two runs score. Final score, 7-6.

---

I want a recount. I want better pitching. Wash did okay -- by his usual nailbiter flyballer standards -- until he ran out of gas in the sixth, but the team has too much invested in guys who aren't enough at their positions, whether on the mound, at the plate, or in the outfield. CoTL observes -- again, read into this at your own risk because of sample size issues -- that the Angels are dead last in the majors in fielded fly ball percentages. I agree with him that if there are in fact defensive problems in centerfield, that will not be recognized and/or dealt with. But it's been obvious to anyone watching the games: Anderson is overmatched in centerfield.

I hate the X-Nation sobriquet. It speaks of chutzpah to me, and the idiot fan's pathetic, hyperinflated sense of collective self.

It started with the Red Sox, who, as far as I am concerned, may keep it for their own.

It moved on, thanks to Frank's greasy ownership, to the Dodgers, though mercifully the expression has not found wide currency of yet. Now, improbably, the Yankees have become infected with this peculiar disease. The latest superstar du jour, ex-Dodger Bubba Crosby, has become an instant hit in his last several at bats, slamming a three run shot out of the park and holding on to a win for Mike Mussina, as well as making a number of sterling defensive plays. These were skills he never displayed in Chavez Ravine. Crosby, moved in the Ventura trade, may have given Yankee fans quite the thrill, the throng at the Bronx being unaccustomed to actual rookies. What many may not realize is they may have also unwittingly witnessed Bubba's best half-dozen or so at bats of his career. While I'm quite happy for Crosby -- who, had he failed, would no doubt find himself on the business end of New York's heavy flensing machinery -- also bears the burden of, for the first time to my memory, appearing coincidentally with the expression "Yankee Nation":

"I'm sure [Steinbrenner] knows everything that's going on," Crosby said. "I haven't really met him other than to shake his hand the other day. But I'm sure he knows there's a Bubba on this team."

All of Yankee Nation knows now, and if Bubba still has to go when Lee is activated, we know something else too: He'll be leaving us dirty.

The curse spreads, and so now we know that it is the Orioles' or the Blue Jays' year. But, whoever it may be, please, let us hear of this abomination no more.

Over at the Long Beach Press-Telegram, columnist Bob Keisser is already thinking about next year, and in particular, the meaning of the horrible outings against Texas had by Lackey, Ortiz, and Sele:

The back of the pitching staff was ripped by Texas' lively bats and lively ball park, which just proves you can never have too much pitching. I'm confident Mike Scioscia and Bud Black will get something out of the Ramon Ortiz-John Lackey- Aaron Sele mix, and maybe add a prospect like Bobby Jenks around mid-season.

The big worry for Angel fans is the prospect of Arte Moreno having to settle on signing one of their two stars eligible for free agency next season, Troy Glaus and Garret Anderson. They're both indispensable, but having spent heavily in the offseason, he may have only enough payroll for one.

Such has been theorized previously. No matter how much of a fan an owner appears to be, they usually -- unless the owner in question is George Steinbrenner -- have limits to their spending. (Sometimes the limits are ridiculously low, as in the case of the Devil Rays.) There's no way of knowing what Arte's real payroll ceiling is, but a closer analysis certainly indicates that both Sele and Appier -- yes, Kevin Appier is still on the payroll in 2004 -- will be gone next year. That's a total of $20 million right there. Arte's already spent a lot of that money on Vlad, Colón and Escobar -- more than that, in fact. In 2004, he'll spend $14M for Vlad and Colón, and $6.25M for Escobar, or $34.25M on three players.

Sele we know is done, or likely so; it's possible we could get a final year out of him before he completely falls apart. But Ortiz has had chance after chance, and still isn't reliably producing, and of course has Agegate issues as well. Both have declining K/9 rates; both posted career lows, Sele 3.92 and Ortiz 4.70, last year. And then there's Lackey, whose excuse of having a sophomore slump ran out last year. If the team has to replace Sele, Ortiz, and possibly Lackey by the end of the year, Arte's wallet could indeed be tapped already. Combined with the near certainty of Darin Erstad having an unproductive year at the plate, and the strong possibility that Salmon will also, that's a lot of hitting to replace. If Baseball Prospectus is right and the Angels finish third, the team will have spent a lot of money for nothing -- and won't have enough in the farm to fix either the rotation or the DH position any time soon. Jenks might be able to help this year, but you certainly can't count on rookies to pull a Fernando Valenzuela.

The A's, despite a long denial, have finally admitted Mark Ellis' season is over. Athletics Nation speculates his career as an A might be over, too, though Tyler doesn't say why. I saw the collision in spring training that sent him down, which seemed to me to be essentially preventable. There's speculation he could end up a Dodger; from that point of view, we here at 6-4-2 wish him a speedy, but not-too-speedy, recovery.

Yeah, you heard it right. Doug Pappas in Business of Baseball passes on a Bud Selig interview indicating just how desperate MLB is to unload the Expos: they're seriously considering gambling mecca Las Vegas:

"They've been aggressive," Selig said of the Vegas suitors.

Could baseball put a team in a city dominated by the gambling industry?

"I was raised in an era when it wouldn't have been plausible," Selig said, "but the fact of the matter is gambling is legal most everywhere today. There are a whole lot of hurdles out there, but Las Vegas is a viable consideration. Thirty years ago, we would have automatically eliminated them. It's different now. No decision has been made, but they are being very aggressive."

What might that mean for the Dodgers' 51's? Considering the big club has pressured the city to make substantial improvements to Cashman Field, it might make sense for Vegas city fathers to take the next step and move the Expos into town. The Dodgers would then have to find another AAA home, something that might end up a positive, considering the enormous disconnect between their major league park and their minors. (You can read more on this in this Futility Infielder article and here in Mariners Wheelhouse.)

On the other hand, it could just be a bargaining ploy to get Washington to pony up. That would be odd, considering the recent news that Washington, D.C. has proposed a $340 million publically financed stadium.

Prior May Need Tommy John Surgery?

While normally this blog covers the Dodgers and Angels, I do have a rooting interest by marriage in the Cubs. The New Jersey Star-Ledger reports a rumor that Mark Prior may require Tommy John surgery thanks to Dusty's overuse of him. This would pretty much put their hopes of winning the division, let alone getting into the World Series, at an end. It also comes as something of a surprise, because as recently as April 6th, Will Carroll's "Under the Knife" column for Baseball Prospectus said he was playing catch in Cincinnati. Prior started the season on the 15-day DL and is not expected to be available until May.

Lenny Harris To Hang 'Em Up

Longtime pinch hitter Lenny Harris is calling it a career after this year. His goal is to get 19 pinch hits, which will get him 200 over his career.

Dayn Perry Vets DePoDodgers

Dayn Perry in his April 9th column (subscription required) vets the Dodgers' recent pickups. He continues to make the common wrong assumption about the team's cash flow ("cash to the Dodgers is like dog hair on dark shirts to me: more at my disposal than I know what to do with"), which still makes me wonder whether he's paying attention to anything outside his immediate field of expertise. But his takes on the player trades jibe well with my own ("All six deals, from the L.A. perspective, range from tremendous to patently sensible"), especially the Ketchner acquisition ("you don't pass up an opportunity to grab a flipper like Ketchner for almost nothing"). The big surprise to me was the Cody Ross deal; I thought it was nothing special, but Perry writes that

This deal and the [Ketchner deal] are the ones that hew closest to the status of thievery probably addressed somewhere in the Patriot Act. In Colyer, DePo surrendered a fairly vanilla minor league reliever with sub-optimal control. What they got was a 23-year-old center fielder who slugged .507 in Double-A and .515 in Triple-A. The downside is that Ross tore his ACL late last season, but he's young enough to rebound without it hurting his baseball chops much.

Good stuff, and nice to see my own feelings are vindicated.

Roberts Stealing His Way Out Of Town?

Base stealer Dave Roberts has heard Paul DePodesta doesn't like the running game. I have to believe that it's not so much base-stealing but getting caught stealing that is the problem. Dave's success rate is such that I can't imagine him being moved for that, though I can imagine his weak bat and poor OBP being moved for someone with a real bat. He's one of the Dodgers more exciting players to watch, but unfortunately for him, my guess is he's ultimately destined elsewhere.

Jeff Nelson at Mariners Wheelhouse wrote me about my article on minor league park factors that

I noted that you also picked up the info on park factors. But when you take a park out of it's league, you need to adjust the park factor for the league in which they play.

Vero Beach is not a hitters park - it's only a hitters park in comparison with the FSL.

Later, he added:

I just about got trapped in it, because I had a whole piece composed about how Gutierrez might not be as good as advertised because he had played half his games in an extreme hitters park at Vero Beach, even though FSL is a pitchers. Then it dawned that not a single park in the FSL has a factor as low as the leage factor. Then I figured out that the the parks are only calibrated within the league.

Ah, good point, Jeff. So let's go back and reconsider those park factors:

	Angels		Dodgers
Level	Team	Factor	Team	Factor
A	Cedar Rapid Kernels	1001	Vero Beach Dodgers	987
A	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	1097	Columbus Catfish	986
AA	Arkansas Travelers	1164	Jacksonville Suns	858
AAA	Salt Lake Stingers	1225	Las Vegas 51's	1083

All the Dodgers parks are pitchers parks -- though in the case of Columbus and Vero Beach, not by very much -- below the AAA level. Conversely, 100% of the Angels' minor league parks are hitter's parks, period. Good stuff, and thanks for that catch, Jeff.

Nomo-san pitched well today in a 7-4 win, albeit a bit shakily in the second, when he threw 41 pitches. Beltre slammed another one over the fence, and drove in a run on a sac fly. What bugged me, though, was watching Gagné's performance on the mound. He looked like he was missing his game face, and he just didn't have his A stuff out there tonight, throwing a lot of pitches, and generally with poor command of the strike zone. He gave up a hit, but struck out two anyway. Overall, it made for a wonderful recovery from Nomo's season opener, although the 108 pitches in six innings makes me wonder if his velocity drop isn't going to bug him more as the season wears on.

---

I mentioned earlier today that the pitching is suspect, and I still cling to that statement. Paul DePodesta, it seems, agrees with me:

The Dodgers got Bradley for their anemic offense. Interestingly, GM Paul DePodesta has indicated to fellow executives he actually doesn't like his rotation either, which was supposed to be a strength. L.A. is spending about $30 million on Darren Dreifort (bumped to the pen), Kaz Ishii (control problems), Hideo Nomo (lost velocity) and Jeff Weaver (good first start off of a horrid spring). It has been so bad DePodesta has offered some hesitancy about moving Odalis Perez, though he is a malcontent in his walk year represented by Scott Boras.

One player DePodesta has revealed he could move that the previous regime would not is elite set-up man Guillermo Mota. The prospect he did move for Bradley, outfielder Franklin Gutierrez, was compared to a young Ellis Burks by a scout who watched him all last year in Single-A.

Surprising that, but I suppose middle relievers are a dime a dozen, yes? Or else he's convinced he's got ten of those in the Dodger system just waiting for a chance.

Lackey lived down to my expectations today, getting chased even before the fourth was over. He showed that he's still a journeyman -- or maybe that the season is early -- in today's 12-6 loss to the Rangers. Weber improved on his abysmal Seattle outing earlier in the week, but no matter what happens, he always makes me nervous on the mound -- he never gets strikeouts, just about. Meantime, the offense somehow managed to get slowed down by, of all things, Ranger pitching, and in particular, the Ranger bullpen, most specifically in the person of ex-Mariner, ex-Yankee Jeff Nelson.

Which makes me worried about facing the A's, who have actual pitching. But outside of the marginal pitching, the Angels face two very real problems this year: Tim Salmon's .050 and Erstad's .200 batting averages. Both could very possibly become league average hitters this year.

Ishii pitched a gem last night, for him, anyway, issuing four free passes and four strikeouts in six innings of work while only giving up a single run against a capable hitting lineup. We now know enough about Dodger Stadium to say authoritatively that it's a severe pitcher's park, and at no time more so than April and May when the air is cool and damp at night games. Walk-and-wiggle, as Vin has called him from time to time, benefitted from this, throwing a mess of breaking pitches. Ishii gets a W and the Dodgers streak proceeds to three. My skepticism about the Dodgers' long term chances has not abated any, though. (Neither, as if it needed any reinforcement, has that of Dodger Blues.) Recognizing that it's still early, here's the continued problems:

• Middle infield offense. Despite Alex Cora's triple last night, he's hitting .143 in the regular season thus far, despite a gaudy .391 in spring training. And while Izturis' .313 represents even a step up from his .306 in spring training, you have to wonder just how many more at bats he's going to be able to keep that up. Further, the hitters haven't seen any teams with genuinely solid pitching to date; let's see him do that against Jason Schmidt or Randy Johnson.
• First base. Shawn Green seems to be settling in defensively better than expected, yet his bat sleeps (.188/.278/.375). Jon's already weighed in on this subject, and frankly my reading of it is toward the black end of that scale, i.e. Green's shoulder is permanently on vacation, and the likelihood of getting power from 1B is nil.
• Encarnacion will scare us throughout the year; his .188/.235/.313 says all you need to know about his streakiness, and why he was benched last year in the World Series (for the most part). He was a nice cheap pickup by Evans amidst the McCourt purchase maelstrom, but you can be certain DePo will unload this guy at the first opportunity for a real hitter.
• The Dodgers still can't score, and trail the division again in runs scored. However, eleventh in the league beats last.
• Update: How could I forget pitching after Nomo's shellacking on opening day? But today's outing calmed me some, though Nomo-san's 40-pitch second didn't do much to make me think he's not sputtering.

That said, the happy stories:

• Adrian Beltre's bat. Beltre is actually slugging in April; .438/.471/.813 with 2 HR's is an enormous turnaround for him. If he keeps this up, he'll be making the case for the Dodgers to keep him around, not to mention bumping him to the three slot in the batting order. This will no doubt incite riots in some quarters, but PECOTA finds guys with similar records at his age includes names like Bill Mazeroski, Robin Yount, and Brooks Robinson (BP subscription required). It also includes a large number of guys whose careers tailed off, like Aurelio Rodriguez and Wil Cordero. I won't bore you with the standard line on Beltre, but as Raul wrote the other day, time to put up or shut up, Adrian.
• The Dodgers team OBP is sixth in the National League, behind only the Padres in the division.
• Dave Roberts' kleptomania, successfully stealing six bags without getting caught caught yet.
• Paul DePodesta's Michael Milken impression. While they're early and few, the moves he's made give me confidence that he knows what he's about. Picking up Milton Bradley was a good deal for both teams; the Indians get our best hitting prospect (though they're already awash in outfielders), and we get a major-league ready hitter.
• Milton Bradley, though I qualify it heavily; in what universe does a .267/.389/.333 line -- i.e., his SLG is below his OBP? -- qualify as an "impact bat", as Dodgerkid has asserted? Whatever. Anybody approaching a .400 OBP has to be a godsend for the Blue, and I'll chalk that up in the plus column.

Who Are You, And What Did You Do With Anderson?

The space aliens have abducted Garrett, as evidenced by this comment in today's Times about the kind of hitter he is:

"I was just trying to keep it simple, hit the ball on a line, be a tough out," said Anderson, a career .294 hitter against left-handers. "I wasn't trying to go deep and be a hero. I'm a leadoff hitter. I need to get on base."

Somewhere on the mother ship, poor GA's getting colorectal probes and having electrodes attached to him in unspeakable places. His doppelgänger apparently forgot that Eckstein's OBP has been better than his two of the last three years, while GA's SLG has been substantially higher than the little guy's over that time. 6-4-2 hopes for a speedy return of the spaceborne Angel.

Live By The Longball...

... die by the longball, three in all for the Rangers. Texas can still hit -- 18 in this game alone! -- A-Rod or no A-Rod. Sele isn't fooling anybody, and neither is headcase Ortiz. Ortiz has steadily become a flyball pitcher, very bad news in a hitter's haven like Arlington, and Sele's never pitched out of the bullpen in his career. The ugly 12-4 final score vindicates the worries I had about the bottom of the rotation, and Lackey, whose taterrific tendencies accelerated last year, might be no better tomorrow.

Last year, we opened the season with a loss to the Rangers. Let's hope it's not an omen.

M's fans, I feel your pain.

Torre Unavailable For Angels Play-By-Play

Joe Torre is unfortunately unavailable to resume his role in the Angels' TV broadcast booth, as he's signed a three year extension with the Yankees to manage that east coast team. But, hey, how cool is it that Steinbrenner's general partner (and son-in-law) is a guy named Swindal?

Closeout!

Say buh bye (at a reduced price, of course) to these bobbleheads:

Richie Sexson as a Brewer	A-Rod as a Ranger	Miguel Tejada as an Athletic

Who buys these things, anyway? I guess I can understand it in a general fan way, but I have a distinct aversion to anything whose principle function is to collect dust. But that's not to say they're completely useless. One of my co-workers (a Dodgers/A's fan -- go figure!) has built a little Tommy shrine:

Tommy looks upon the good works of acolytes Green, LoDuca, and McGriff

On mane padme hum, on mane padme hum...