6-4-2 — an Angels/Dodgers double play blog

The guys running Athletics Nation, Fire Bavasi, Mariners Wheelhouse, and Texas Rangers Blog got together and did a position-by-position survey of the AL West. Fire Bavasi performed the honors for the Angels, and while he did a creditable job, I must admit that, coming as it does from an M's fan, I think he's got a few places where he got it wrong. Forthwith, my criticisms thereof. Warning: this will get a bit lengthy.

Infield

Here's the link from Fire Bavasi for the stuff below on the infield.

Catcher

Yeah, Benji isn't friggin' Mike Piazza -- so what? The only possible good news here might be the short-term substitution of Tom Gregorio for the even weaker hitting José Molina. José's gone after 2005 anyway once prospect Jeff Mathis makes it to the big club. No change.

First Base

I want to get to this one at length, so I'll quote it at length:

Gone is Scott Spiezio, an adequate offensive first baseman with a flattering defensive reputation. Gone is Brad Fullmer, a righty-masher who singlehandedly improved Anaheim’s first base OPS by 27 points despite getting only 62 at bats. In is Darin Erstad, someone who put up a line that wasn’t particularly close to league-average in center field. The Angels hope that staying healthy will help Erstad rediscover his 2000 magic, which is part of the reason he’s been moved to first base, but if the 1500+ at bats Erstad’s had since his sensational year tell us anything, it’s that he’s simply not a good hitter anymore, and that his career hit a premature peak four years ago.

Given his proneness to injury, it’s hard to believe that Erstad is still only 29 years old. He’s young enough to recover some of his talent, as long as he avoids the nagging aches and pains that caused him to put up a .617 post-All Star Break OPS over the last three years. A healthy Erstad should approach the .290/.343/.398 line he’s put up in the first half over the same time span, but at this point, it’s irrational to assume he’ll go through a full season without hurting himself.

Defensively, Erstad is incrementally above-average, similar to Scott Spiezio. Should he injure himself, Robb Quinlan or someone similar will be able to step in and perform just about as well (along with better offense, most likely).

Darin Erstad won’t come close to matching the .293/.362/.492 Anaheim’s first basemen contributed last season. The Angels will be considerably worse off at 1B this year than in 2003.

Agreed, Erstad's bat is questionable. In fact, if anything, the Angels should have used a little more restraint in re-signing Erstad to so many years, but Disney had the team on the block, and the team had just won a title. As Stoneman put it at the time (and this is an approximate quote), "I only wish I could have made the [2003] team more the same." Back came Erstad again, balky hamstrings and all. The Angels are stuck with his mediocre bat for two more years.

But, all that said, FB's line on the Angels' 2003 1B stats are simply wrong. The players were Spiezio, Shawn Wooten, Robb Quinlan, and Bobby Riggs, in descending order of at bats; their collective line was actually .259/.324/.417. While the Angels stats site is giving me conflicting data (it shows Fullmer fielding 19 games and starting 17 at 1B with no ABs), it's hard to imagine that's true given the 148.2 innings he fielded at that position. Ersty's last three years' OBP has declined consistently, so I'll go out on a limb here and say he'll put up .270/.320/.400 -- a slightly better average with a little less power. Defensively, he'll be a great first baseman, but with a vastly reduced defensive value overall. Offensively, it looks like a wash. No change.

Edit: I forgot that Ersty is scheduled to bat second, directly ahead of Vlad. That might be enough to boost his average and maybe even power some. But the same concerns about his career trajectory apply, so if the improvement does show up, I tend to think it will be incremental. The Erstad of 2000 is unlikely to return. And more: "... at this point, it’s irrational to assume he’ll go through a full season without hurting himself." Well, the whole point of putting Erstad at 1B is to keep him off the DL.

Edit yet again (2/14/04 7:14 pm): my bad for calling out errors when the MLB.com stats were the problem. My sincerest apologies.

Second Base

I'm not going to repost this one because I mostly agree with it; Kennedy should continue to do well defensively, but the big question for him is OBP increase, as well as the necessity to play an entire season at 2B. Kennedy will likely pick up an extra dozen games or so this year, and while his 2003 second half proved he can play every day, the usual caveats about injury apply. No change.

Shortstop

Eckstein haters... well, I don't really care. Say what you want about Tejada or Jeter, I still love Eckstein. The guy scraps just to stay where he is -- "mysteriously solid" indeed. A healthy Eckstein will, once more, be a joy to watch. Improve, provided Eck doesn't have any serious health problems like in 2003. The bench is thinner than 2002 from what I can tell; Amezaga and Delgado (how did Delgado ever end up with a .320 average?) collectively can't make up a single full-time player.

Third Base

Two things that FB didn't mention:

• Troy came off eye surgery in the offseason. There's been much speculation about Glaus' eyesight, and while I doubt he suddenly loses his visual acuity around June every year, it might make a substantial difference.
• Troy's shoulder, of course, is the big question, with rumors back and forth about its condition. We just won't know until ST starts.

Overall I think we'll improve, but it's a very tentative improvement.

Outfield

The link to FB.

Left Field

Minus GA, plus Guillen? Had we to do it all over again, I would have left Guillen on the steps of the GABP, or Network Associates Coliseum, looking for work. He reminds me too much of Erstad: a lot of mediocre to lousy years with one great year mixed in. The worst part is that his great year came in a hitter's park. With the Angels, he'll be hitting in the AL for only the second year in his career. No wonder he popped the cork on his signing four days early. Hate to say it, but I agree with FB on this one. Chances are we'll see an overall decline unless he's really ready to break out. Nah, that never happens.

Center

GA in CF is worse defensively than Ersty, but better than the guys who replaced him. No change.

Right

Vlad. Pow. If he stays healthy. Improve, big time.

DH

Again, the MLB stats break down, because we know the Angels had a DH at that position for every game, but they only show splits for Fullmer. Well, Brad was good for .306/.387/.500, but we can assume whoever hit in that slot afterwards (Wooten? DaVanon? Spiezio?) got worse numbers. Salmon's 2003 line was .275/.374/.464 -- not as good as Fullmer, but not (likely) as bad as the platooned DH position. Still, Salmon's on the downward arc, and we can only assume his numbers decline, possibly big time. (Note his 2001 season, after which he very nearly quit; it could happen again.)

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More as it comes.