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Friday, March 19, 2004

A Two-Edged, VORPal Sword

Chronicles of the Lads points to Baseball Prospectus' AL West projections, and they aren't pretty, with essentially the same finish this year as last year, though the Angels will end up with a winning record of 83-79. It boils down to declines from nearly every player on the 2002 squad, with Anderson, Eckstein, Erstad, Glaus, Kennedy, Molina, and Salmon collectively erasing gains made by signing Vlad. (Guillen is so speculative I can't believe he'll pan out.) This just drives me nuts. Let's take a peek at the projected 2004 VORPs for all the published values prior to that year.

Year AndersonEcksteinErstadGlausKennedy MolinaSalmon
2001 20.8 28.5 8.7 52.7 6 6.6 3
2002 37.5 29.2 11.2 30.7 31.5 -9.8 31.7
2003 40.6 1.5 -3.7 17.6 31.5 12.4 27.6
2004 26.2 20.7 1.5 39.1 23.4 4.9 21.9

And now for a brief explanation of why PECOTA is wrong and I'm right:

Overall, I just wonder about these guys. From what I can tell VORP is something of a black box, as is PECOTA. They sure as heck didn't predict the Angels to win it all in 2002.

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