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Friday, October 01, 2004 |
Pickoff Moves Contortionist Edition
... because, hey, we're way beyond just the stretch...
Deconstructing Plaschke
I don't think there's a record for stupid newspaper commentary from a third-rate hack, but there might be for getting paid for it. Plascke today jumps on Tracy's back for overusing Gagné, complaining that his seven two-or-more innings appearances "equals the number of two-inning appearances during that span by seven other probable playoff closers combined." Tracy and Gagné, of course, have the ultimate shaddup rejoinder to this:"With Mota not here, did I do things slightly different? Yeah. You had to," Tracy acknowledged Thursday. "What are your choices? Lose the division? You think anybody in a blue shirt wanted to see that?"... "I haven't been overused," Gagne said. "I've never pitched when I can't pitch. I talk to them all the time. We're on the same page. If I'm not ready, I don't pitch."
Always The Bridesmaid, Never The Bride
My wife, who had been at the recent Cubs-Reds series in Chicago for the last three, got to see them swept in that time, and the cuprit was the offense. Alex Ciepley analyzes Dusty's mistakes in yesterday's game. As Ciepley put it, "It isn’t that the Cubs would have won the game had Baker not made bad decision after bad decision in extra innings. It’s that Baker consistently went against the odds, making it all that much harder for his team to win." With the Cubs' elimination number now at three, only a miracle collapse by the other teams will keep them in this race.The bigger story, to me, is the offseason. Too many key parts of this club's offense are aging or marginally effective in an Eric Karros way, i.e. they work well at acquiring counting stats like home runs but not at much else:
- Sammy Sosa's back kept him out of the lineup for a good part of the year, and ineffective for much time thereafter; he's batted sixth for some weeks now.
- Moises Alou continues to be one of the best offensive left fielders out there -- in left, third by VORP in the National League -- but to give him a big-money contract to continue for the Cubs at 37 is absurd and won't happen. If, as seems likely, they let him go at the end of the season, the Cubs' will have to essentially start from scratch at left.
- Aramis Ramirez, while blessed with a solid stick, is also a ready-made double play waiting to happen (he's hit into 21 this year alone).
- Mark Grudzielanek is at the end of his absurd contract and may walk; Todd Walker, his likely replacement, is a below-average defender (-4 RAA2).
- At shortstop, Nomar Garciaparra may stay or he may test the free-agency waters, but in my book, he'd be smart to stay where he is and keep his mouth shut. Scott Boras may have other ideas, though, and Nomar would be the poorer for them. In any event, Nomar's plate production is as big a question mark as ever on the verge of his free agency, and when your backup is named Neifi Perez, there's something cruelly wrong.
Oddsmaking On The Knife Fight
Clay has us as 60-40 underdogs.Cards Minus Ace For First Round
The Cardinals will be minus ace Chris Carpenter in the first round of the playoffs, with nerve damage. Will Carroll believes his injury and Penny's may be related:I'm going to connect some dots and get pretty speculative here, so hang with me. Both Brad Penny and Chris Carpenter are out for the playoffs due to nerve irritations in their pitching arms. This is an unusual injury, so unusual that Frank Jobe states that he's never seen something like this before. Seeing two unusual injuries coming so closely together makes me look for similarities. I can only find one: both Carpenter and Penny have had labrum problems. Carpenter's have been well-documented, but the health of Penny's arm was also questioned over the last two seasons. Is it possible that the swelling in the shoulder is putting the nerve under additional tension? Dr. Jobe seems to indicate that a lack of flexibility contributed to the problem. Given that pitchers with labrum tears are now beginning to return to baseball, this may be an injury we'll see more often.
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