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Thursday, October 21, 2004

What Now, Yankees?

Mike's Baseball Rants begins the desconstruction by asking
Here’s a quickie poll: Who will be the first Yankee casualty after a disappointing season:
  • Brian Cashman?
  • Mel Stottlemyre?
  • Javier Vazquez?
  • The travel staff?
Heh, well, you could certainly make a case for Cashman, though I think it's a weak one. He got what was clearly the best young pitcher moved in the offseason, although certainly not the best pitcher; that would have to go to Theo Epstein for picking up Curt Schilling for a bunch of parts the club wasn't going to use. Cashman was also behind the Weaver/Brazoban for Brown trade, which now looks like a disastrous gamble; at 132 innings pitched, Brown threw the fewest innings of any Yankee starter (the next highest, Mike Mussina, had 164.2). Injuries and stupidity kept him off the mound otherwise. Cashman also acquired -- if you can call having George Steinbrenner telling you what to do "work" -- Gary Sheffield and Alex Rodriguez. On the plus side, Cashman alertly recovered John Olerud from the Mariners' scrap heap, and he proved a useful (.280/.367/.396, 164 AB) reserve who became vital once Jason Giambi -- remember him? -- fell ill over the second half of the season and could not attend the postseason. But despite all that money, the Yanks' season ended yesterday, and somebody has to take a fall for it.

But I'd bet against lackey/handmaiden Cashman being that guy.

My money's on Mel Stottlemyer. As we saw earlier, Stottlemyer started attracting slings and arrows well before the season was over, garnering credit in some quarters for Vazquez's bad showing in pinstripes, as well as Jeff Weaver and Ted Lilly. When a guy's VORP drops to almost one-half its prior value (23.1 vs. 52.9 in 2003), something's horribly, terribly wrong. While you could argue about the DH and pitching in the AL's roughest division, there's more to this story than just that, and the bad smell of the starting pitching will attract attention to the nearest neighbor -- Stottlemyer. Never mind that yesterday's loss came at the hands of one of the club's veteran pitchers. (Or that the cold weather was probably not helping Kevin Brown's back; Brown had pitched mainly for warm-weather teams in the past, and did well against the Twins in the climate-controlled Metrodome.)

As to Vazquez himself: I wouldn't want to bet against him. If the Yankees decide to trade him in the offseason -- highly unlikely, considering his considerable success in Montreal -- it's liable to become yet another kaboom in a highly volatile year, not unlike the Jeff Weaver trade.

Now then. Who should Steinbrenner fire? Considering his offseason moves, I would say he needs to look in the mirror to answer that question.


More on this subject will come, to be sure. Here's an ESPN article and one in the New York Times.

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