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Monday, October 18, 2004 |
Where They're Going
Will Carroll Presents... has a prediction list of who's going where in the offseason. Some comments on his list:
- Pedro Martinez, Angels, 3 years, $15M. God, it makes perfect sense, doesn't it? If you were on the outside looking in, observing the way the Angels acquire free agent pitchers, you'd be really tempted to go this direction, for two reasons: first, the Angels have a reputation -- earned or not -- of pursuing hispanic players; and second, the club has gone after "name" pitchers, regardless of warning bells about their abilities. This latter is the part that scares the pants off me (and if you've ever seen me without pants, that's frightening indeed). Arte's just wack enough to pull something like this, i.e., he learned nothing from Colon's falling K/9 rates before acquiring him in the offseason.
- Carl Pavano, Red Sox, 3 years, $8M. With the Yankees in the market for starting pitching? Heh. I think the Fish will re-sign him for similar money and years, else they lose all credibility with their fans. That's especially true if Mike Lowell turns into a pumpkin. The only caveat is the Sox did manage to land Curt Schilling via a trade.
- Troy Percival, Angels, 1 year, $5M. Both Troys had strong finishes to their seasons, and you could certainly argue Percy's was even stronger than Glaus's. He doesn't have the mid-high-90's fastball he used to, but he's gotten good mileage out of a curveball he's brought out of retirement, plus his changeup seems to have recovered its effectiveness. His command can be maddening, but to me this is a good deal. Too many other pieces have to get shuffled if Percy leaves the club. The Angels' pen, while good, is awfully top-heavy between K-Rod, Shields, and the less-effective pair of Donnelly and Gregg to be shifting Frankie into the closer spot.
- Richie Sexson, D-Backs, 3 years, $10M. Of course. The Snakes now have to overpay for his services, else they look like total fools for the trade that brought him there. However... this is a matter between the fans and ownership, but if the new GM can reframe the question as a mistake the former GM made, he may not be the lock to return Carroll thinks.
- Jeff Kent, Cubs, 2 years, $6M. I don't see it. Combine this with his predicted move of Carlos Beltran to the Cubs (which would be brilliant if Jim Hendry could pull it off), and you've got a riot in Houston.
- Nomar Garciaparra, Giants, 3 years, $10M. There was always something wrong with Nomar in a Cubs uniform to my mind; call it some weird psychic vibe, but he just never looked right in it. His .297/.362/.455 line just isn't all that impressive considering the dollars he and Scott Boras are asking for. Extrapolate the 13.4 VORP he earned with the Cubs out to an entire season, and it's 20.4, which is more like the rebuilt Royce Clayton than Derek Jeter or Miguel Tejada. The Giants are desperate for offense at short; any team with memories of Neifi Perez at that position would have to be, and they'll be the unlucky ones to overpay Boras for the memory of a great player.
- Jason Varitek, Brewers, 4 years, $10M. Huh? When did the new ownership of this club get enough money to make a dumb mistake like this one? Or is there some rule that the NL Central has to attract overpaid free-agent catchers? At 32 years old, Varitek is just a bad move regardless of who you get; catchers wear down fast. Piazza's 36, the age Varitek will be at the end of Carroll's projected contract; is he hitting as well as he did four years ago?
- Damien Miller, Dodgers, 1 year, $4M. I guess the thinking is DePo will get the leavings after the A's are done with him, but this leaves the question of who will receive in Oakland. It doesn't make sense to me, but it may be a question forced by the market rather than the desires of Billy Beane.
- Troy Glaus, Angels, 1 year, $5M. I would say more likely 2 years, $12m. His bat has shown spark toward the end of the season, he's a proven postseason guy, and God knows how many at-bats it'll take before Dallas McPherson and/or Casey Kotchman are major-league competent. Also, Shawn Green's labrum repair shows that it's entirely possible to come back from that kind of surgery successfully.
- Adrian Beltre, Mariners, 5 years, $10M. There is no way the Dodgers let Beltre walk. No. Way. My prediction: 4 years, $10M, backloaded, starting at $7M.
- Carlos Beltran, Cubs, 7 years, $20M, backloaded. The Cubs might be able to afford this, but IMO for this to happen they'd have to clear Sammy Sosa's salary first, and I just don't see him moving without the Cubbies eating most of his contract. For a time, there was a rumor that the Rangers might get Sammy back in exchange for Chan Ho Park. Flyball pitcher Park, translated to Wrigley, would be as big a disaster as he is in Arlington, maybe worse thanks to the jet stream above the field on windy days. Plus, you have to factor in the Yanks, and Steinbrenner famously covets the 27-year-old centerfielder.
- Steve Finley, Dodgers, 2 years, $6M. Well, of course, and the motivation is the same as it was when we picked him up last year: keep him out of the Padres' lineup.
- Moises Alou, Giants, 1 year, $5M. Gets to play with Dad managing, and the Giants still fondly remember the pickup of Marquis Grissom, whom the Dodgers released as a free agent -- and still had plenty of oomph in his bat.
Comments:
Re: Martinez. Why wouldn't Arte just wait a year to sign Randy? (Or trade somebody to get him this year.) What's another $1 M?
Re: Sexson. $10 M sounds OK to me, but not necessarily at 3 years. Sexson at $10 M is less than a couple million more than he makes now, so it's not so bad (especially if he comes back from labrum surgery just like Shawn Green...) Moorad is probably just under as much pressure to show a "commitment to winning" as he has freedom to jettison the prior approach (besides, in both cases, the GM is the same.)
Re: Sexson. $10 M sounds OK to me, but not necessarily at 3 years. Sexson at $10 M is less than a couple million more than he makes now, so it's not so bad (especially if he comes back from labrum surgery just like Shawn Green...) Moorad is probably just under as much pressure to show a "commitment to winning" as he has freedom to jettison the prior approach (besides, in both cases, the GM is the same.)
Stefan -- I guess I have a problem with giving Sexson a raise considering his injury history. Will Carroll says there isn't a big list of guys who have come back from this kind of injury, so it's hard to chart the course of his recovery. Giving him a raise therefore amounts to the Pudge-In-Detroit penalty: overpaying for a name free agent to go to a bad team.
Doing so is essentially a sub rosa announcement the team is in desperation mode. It will certainly make getting other free agents that much harder. In any event, I certaionly wouldn't look forward to him being anything like productive until maybe halfway through the season, perhaps not until 2006. In that event, perhaps the three-year contract is the best idea, after all.
Doing so is essentially a sub rosa announcement the team is in desperation mode. It will certainly make getting other free agents that much harder. In any event, I certaionly wouldn't look forward to him being anything like productive until maybe halfway through the season, perhaps not until 2006. In that event, perhaps the three-year contract is the best idea, after all.
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