Monday, November 15, 2004
Through A Glaus, Darkly: Early Returns On Player Projections
Of course, what this doesn't tell you is the number of at-bats McPherson will get vs. Glaus, something of a proxy for health. Baseball Prospectus won't have their PECOTA projections up for two or three months yet, so we have to make do with those that are available now. Baseball Think Factory does have their ZiPS projections up, and they do give at-bats. Look:Player AVG OPS HR ================================= Troy Glaus .254 .884 39 Dallas McPherson .293 .945 37
Unsurprisingly, it says Glaus will lose about a month's worth of at-bats vs. McPherson. Of course, this is all spitting in the wind; we really have no idea how healthy he will be, and frankly, the state of player projection in the face of injuries is really a big unknown.Player AB AVG OBP SLG HR ============================================ Troy Glaus 391 .258 .368 .471 21 Dallas McPherson 501 .275 .341 .513 27
I'm much more pessimistic about McPherson's ability to contribute here -- if we get .258/.341/.471 (the lower of each number) I'd be thrilled. 2005 will be his rookie year. If he hits 27 homers, he'd be a serious RoY candidate.
A couple other points:
- Does anyone else think it's interesting that Gammons specifically mentions VORP -- possibly for the first time -- in this column?
- James also projects Vlad to have a 1.000 OPS season. Sweet.