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Monday, November 15, 2004

Through A Glaus, Darkly: Early Returns On Player Projections

Peter Gammons has an article posted yesterday projecting 2005 performance of some of the more interesting free agents -- and their presumptive replacements -- including Troy Glaus, this courtesy of the 2005 Bill James Handbook. Respectively:
Player             AVG   OPS   HR
Troy Glaus        .254	.884   39
Dallas McPherson  .293	.945   37
Of course, what this doesn't tell you is the number of at-bats McPherson will get vs. Glaus, something of a proxy for health. Baseball Prospectus won't have their PECOTA projections up for two or three months yet, so we have to make do with those that are available now. Baseball Think Factory does have their ZiPS projections up, and they do give at-bats. Look:
Player              AB  AVG   OBP   SLG   HR
Troy Glaus         391 .258  .368  .471   21
Dallas McPherson   501 .275  .341  .513   27
Unsurprisingly, it says Glaus will lose about a month's worth of at-bats vs. McPherson. Of course, this is all spitting in the wind; we really have no idea how healthy he will be, and frankly, the state of player projection in the face of injuries is really a big unknown.

I'm much more pessimistic about McPherson's ability to contribute here -- if we get .258/.341/.471 (the lower of each number) I'd be thrilled. 2005 will be his rookie year. If he hits 27 homers, he'd be a serious RoY candidate.

A couple other points:

Beltre, says James, projects to a .287 AVG, 34 HR, .866 OPS season.

"Through a Glaus, Darkly". Great title, Rob.
Yeah, I'll miss having both Troys around, and Glaus especially -- and not just for their baseball skills. I feel deprived already knowing I can't write heds like "Troy, Troy Again", "High Glaus Finish", etc.

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