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Wednesday, December 22, 2004 |
Drew vs. Beltre
Oh, daddy, when you gonna have thatI keep wondering about the wisdom of signing J. D. Drew. He's got a reputation for being fragile; why give him $55M/5 years when Beltre, who plays a more important defensive position, got $65M/5 years?
Fat Cadillac like you always said
Oh, daddy, when you gonna
Put on some stretch pants, yeahWell, don`t hold your breath
Cause it`ll make you blue
But the whole opera's not over yet
And I aim to make the fat lady sweat-- Adrian Belew, "Oh Daddy"
Let's look at their histories.
Adrian Beltre
Age on opening day 2005: 25PECOTA card (similarity index: 26, projected 2005 VORP: 22)
Year AB Line VORP ================================== 1998 195 .215/.278/.369 -0.7 1999 538 .275/.352/.428 29.3 2000 510 .290/.360/.475 42.4 2001 475 .265/.310/.411 16.1 2002 587 .257/.303/.426 24.4 2003 559 .240/.290/.424 17.7 2004 598 .334/.388/.629 89.1 ----------------------------------- Total 3,462 218.3Beltre, of course, had problems in 2001 with a botched appendectomy that apparently bothered him for two additional years. That he would eventually have a breakout year was not assured, but when he did, it was enough to make Dodger fans wish it had happened before his appendectomy. In some wise, it had, as his 2000 was about a third better than his previous year.
J.D. Drew
Age on opening day 2005: 29PECOTA card (similarity index: 50, projected 2005 VORP: 19)
Year AB Line VORP ================================== 1998 36 .417/.463/.972 11.8 1999 368 .242/.340/.424 16.7 2000 407 .295/.401/.479 33.9 2001 375 .323/.414/.613 57.4 2002 424 .252/.349/.429 17.4 2003 287 .289/.374/.512 24.6 2004 518 .305/.436/.569 78.7 ---------------------------------- Total 2,415 240.5Drew has a rap for fragility, and no question but that it's earned. Over the same number of seasons as Beltre, he's racked up 30% fewer at bats. At the same time, Drew accomplished appreciably better value over that time despite his ill health. Certainly, given the contract size, you'd have to conclude that DePodesta knows something about his health that the other clubs didn't, in much the same way that other clubs stayed away from Vlad last year because of his history of back trouble.
PECOTA shows both of these guys -- admittedly, using year-old data -- as basically the same player, with the caveat that it claims to know far more about Drew than it does about Beltre because of the similarity indexes. In that sense, Beltre's a bigger risk, because our projection methods know less about him than about Drew. Obviously, age and position make Beltre more valuable in the marketplace, but his inability to remain a consistently good player give Drew, incredibly, the better track record thus far.
Is Drew a good signing? Ask me in a year.
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