6-4-2 — an Angels/Dodgers double play blog

You are a GM of a club with more talent up the middle than you know what to do with, including not one, not two, but three highly touted minor league shortstops. None of them are more than two years away from the big club. Faced with a dimming but still serviceable shortstop in David Eckstein do you --

1. Hold on to Eckstein for another year? This makes some sense if the title of your 2005 plan is "Let The A's Win -- Again". It's not implausible; consider that the Angels already have come out and said that they're relying on McPherson to pick up the offensive slack at third -- he's batting third or fourth.
2. Start Izturis? Little Cesar's little brother has so far shown a good similarity to his older brother, so much so that Cesar shows up as one of his PECOTA comparables. If it's true, that's better than what his 2004 projection had to say, essentially that he was a replacement-level player, something his -0.4 VORP this year didn't do much to dispel. This isn't a real option, and considering his glovework has been widely described as inferior to his brother's, we're probably better off not even thinking about this in public -- Stoneman and/or Scioscia might try it.
3. Sign Orlando Cabrera for four years? Of the two Cabrera brothers, Orlando is unquestionably the better one. Here's his last-three-years numbers:

   Year   AB        Line      VORP
   ===============================
   2002  563  .263/.321/.380  22.7
   2003  626  .297/.347/.460  49.8
   2004  618  .264/.306/.383  14.7
   

Now, since the Angels picked eligible batchelor number 3 to the tune of $32M/4 years, we have to assume there was some reason for this. They are almost certainly overpaying for Cabrera's 2003, and for some reason think he's going to repeat it. I submit this is unlikely to happen. PECOTA agrees with me, tagging him with a high degree of confidence -- 54 similarity score -- that he's not going to see his 2003 ever, ever, ever again. Well, besides the when-pigs-fly theory of team construction, how do you justify this signing?

• The Angels believe free agent pitching is insanely overpriced, even at the middle tiers, and have given up acquiring any in this way. While this is true, it's also the case that this does not justify also overpaying for middle infielders when you have a glut of them in your farm system. That is what farm systems, in part, are supposed to do: insulate you from stupid overreactions of the free agency market. (It is also a reason why the Yankees have had to overpay virtually every free agent they've signed in the last three years, but that's a subject and a study for another day.)
• Cabrera will bring superior defense. Unfortunately, this also doesn't hold up. Looking at his Baseball Prospectus DT card, his defense has been stellar previously, but it's slipped in the last two years, and he is now slightly below average.
• The Angels do not think Eckstein will last more than 80-90 games next year. This is a more serious concern. Eckstein played 142 games this year, up from last year's 120, but his size and ongoing health concerns make him a big question mark into next year. While putting Chone Figgins in at shortstop is a decent temporary solution, with Alfredo Amezaga gone, the Angels lost their primary immediate insurance against Eckstein spending time on the DL. Kennedy's absence in the middle infield exacerbates this problem as well.
• None of the shortstops in the minors will be ready before late 2006. This I also believe is likely true. None of Collaspo, Aybar, or Wood will be in a position to help the Angels in the near term, with Collaspo probably nearest to stick-a-fork-in-'em time.
• Eckstein's average fell too low, too long. This also strikes me as plausible. 2004 marks the second year in a row his batting average was below .280 by the end of the season. For a team that lives and dies on average, this was just intolerable.

Unfortunately, this means that the Angels are overpaying in both years and dollars for the privilege of having Orlando Cabrera on their team. By every sabermetric means I can find, save for durability, Eckstein was and could be expected to be Cabrera's equal. Since Eckstein was non-tendered, he becomes a free agent and the Angels can get nothing for him.

Beyond the contractual issues, however, is the looming crisis at the top of the batting order. The team is now wholly dependent on Chone Figgins' somewhat streaky bat. While I like Chone, we saw last year how dangerous that dependence can be, especially considering the Angels don't know from OBP.

Finally, the Angels surrender their first-round draft pick because Cabrera is a type A free agent. This, friends, is the signing that just keeps on taking. Frankly, I'd have rather we signed Eckstein for two years and waited for Collaspo.

Update: More on this at Chronicles, Studes wipes the floor with Stoneman for failing to sign just-as-good yet practically free Placido Polanco, and David Pinto concurs, saying

... there's nothing you're getting from Cabrerra that you wouldn't get from Eckstein. And now the Angels are paying a whole lot more money for it.

Oy, vey.