6-4-2 — an Angels/Dodgers double play blog: More On The Green Trade

Proceeds from the ads below will be donated to the Bob Wuesthoff scholarship fund.

Tuesday, January 04, 2005

More On The Green Trade

Now that the Green transaction is settling down, the AP reports that if the Johnson trade falls through, the Dodgers won't get Koyie Hill as suggested earlier but Chris Snyder instead. Otherwise, there's no changes to the deal.

Not having spent any time on the top ten lists at Baseball America or in Baseball Prospectus, William Juarez is a bit hard to pin down, but his good K/9 and K/BB rates in A and AA ball are enough to make me think he's not a junk inclusion. He was sufficiently noteworthy that the Midwest League Guide listed him as a fourth starter in their League All-Star wrapup for 2004. His 5.00 ERA with El Paso we can at least partially chalk up to the friendliest park for hitters in the Texas League, as well as possibly a problem with the defense behind him. He only allowed 14 home runs this year in two levels. He's worth a look.

Rookie Chris Snyder got in some playing time at the big club this year. Snyder didn't break Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects list last year, but he did make the top 25, and Will Kimmey in his 2004 Arizona chat said

Snyder has never had the conditioning to play a full season, and has slowed down at the end of each of his pro campaigns. That's an issue the D-backs have stressed with him, and he knows he must build up the stamina to catch 120-130 games if he's going to play at the BOB. He's still odds-on as the longterm solution behind the plate, with Hammock supplementing as a C-3b-OF.
... Snyder has always been a great catch-and-throw guy, and the D'backs think he can hit 20 bombs with a 260 average. That'd be nice to have behind the plate for any team.

The Baseball Cube doesn't show his 2003 efforts at AA, but his .240/.327/.458 line with Arizona as a 23-year-old rookie (even in a hitter's park) would mark an improvement over David Ross, whose disappointing .170/.253/.291 line in 2004 almost certainly means he'll compete for a starting job against Snyder in spring training. PECOTA projected Snyder to have a -18.6 VORP, but he actually provided a 5.2 VORP. By contract, Ross had a -7.9 VORP on the year, while the Dodgers' other starter behind the dish at the end of the year, Brent Mayne, had -6.3 VORP. Snyder will be a solid if unspectacular player; 2003 PECOTA projected him to be about a half win above replacement at best, but with the caveat that it only found 27 comparables.

I'm not thrilled with this trade for the Dodgers, but it's not terrible; the Dodgers get some relief from Green's salary, unload an arguably surplus, expensive player acquired during the Malone era madness, at least temporarily address the problem they have behind the plate, and get a throw-in pitcher who could be something interesting down the road. In return, the Snakes get a player with a history of some shoulder trouble -- probably the hardest kind of injury to project on future performance -- but at a nice discount. If the Diamondbacks get Green's 2004 second half and not the year and a half prior, they may end up with the trade deal of the offseason. That deal can only get better for the Snakes if Green defers some of his 2005 salary.

Update: I should probably add that the one flaw here for the Snakes is that it moves the Dodgers' hole at catcher to Arizona if the Johnson trade fails -- unlikely at this point. Given they have Koyie Hill, this isn't much of a problem. Hill is probably the better of the two prospects, anyway.

// posted by Rob @ 7:22 AM link // 0 comments