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Wednesday, January 26, 2005 |
Self-Embarrassment Time: PECOTA 2005 Projections
As you probably know by now, Baseball Prospectus has their 2005 PECOTA projections out. Hanging my fanny wide, wide, wide on the wire, its projections for the AL and NL West.
O F F E N S E
AL NL
Team VORP Team VORP
============== ====================
Oakland 399.6 San Diego 302.2
Anaheim 306.6 San Francisco 237.4
Texas 277.3 Colorado 236.3
Seattle 239.7 Los Angeles 224.5
Arizona 168.2
P I T C H I N G
AL NL
Team VORP Team VORP
============== ====================
Oakland 345.1 San Francisco 268.6
Anaheim 289.0 San Diego 235.4
Texas 271.3 Los Angeles 235.3
Seattle 214.7 Arizona 210.4
Colorado 178.8
Adding pitching VORP to offensive VORP, this leads to projected division winners as follows:
AL NL
Team VORP Team VORP
=============== ====================
Oakland 744.7 San Diego 537.6
Anaheim 595.6 Sam Francisco 506.0
Texas 548.6 Los Angeles 459.8
Seattle 454.4 Colorado 415.1
Arizona 378.6
Some thoughts:
- Look at that split between Oakland and Anaheim. Again. The big difference is a lot of little contributors for Oakland offensively, and the huge advantage PECOTA assigns to the uninspired but far more consistent Oakland starting rotation. K-Rod is expected to have a higher VORP than any other pitcher in the Angels' rotation save Kelvim Escobar.
- Similarly, Eric Gagné is expected to outperform (32.5 VORP) every single Dodger starting pitcher.
- Jason Schmidt (56.8) will be the best pitcher in the NL West.
- Kelvim Escobar (33.9) will be the AL West's best pitcher.
- Extreme naïveté alert: I assume the players listed in the spreadsheet are all the ones who will appear. This could be extremely naive, and as a result some teams will get far more VORP than will actually occur. I'll have to whittle the lists and refine this later.
Comments:
PECOTA seems useful on a player-by-player basis, but projecting the future of a whole division? I dunno.
One of the problems I forsee is that PECOTA seems to assume a player will receive playing time commeasurate with his abilities. Take Neifi Perez (please). PECOTA forecasts him to collect -6.2 VORP in 273 AB. But he hasn't had that few since '97; last year, he had 381 AB. What to make of that when looking into the future?
One of the problems I forsee is that PECOTA seems to assume a player will receive playing time commeasurate with his abilities. Take Neifi Perez (please). PECOTA forecasts him to collect -6.2 VORP in 273 AB. But he hasn't had that few since '97; last year, he had 381 AB. What to make of that when looking into the future?
# posted by 
: 1/26/2005 01:57:00 PM
: 1/26/2005 01:57:00 PM
Yes, as I mentioned in my extreme naïveté alert, this is a situation where I will certainly have to whittle the list some to adjust for actual players. This was a quick-and-dirty attempt to come to an answer, but clearly more work remains to be done. For the NL West, I'll probably end up using Jon's rosters, but I'll have to invent something for the AL West.
# posted by : 1/26/2005 02:19:00 PM
: 1/26/2005 02:19:00 PMNewer› ‹Older
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