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Sunday, February 13, 2005 |
Knocking On A Different Door: The Rise Of College And Indy Ball
Rich got far more column-miles out of yesterday's USC/Long Beach game than I did -- including the story of how me and the missus got together. One thing he pointed to in his column is that we got to see two of the highest-ranked pitchers in college ball today, at the very same game -- something you might not have noticed had you forgotten to read the Dirtbags' media guide. Reading beyond that, though, is the continuing influence of Moneyball in the draft, and its side effects on how the college game acquires players.
*Update: Rich wrote to tell me that the NCAA restrictions are the same with baseball or football, so a player can't be signed by MLB for three years once he's signed with an NCAA program.
John Manuel of Baseball America wrote in his late 2003 column, "Majoring In Moneyball", that the Michael Lewis book has had a notable effect on recruiting:
Perhaps the greatest positive effect "Moneyball" has had on college baseball involves the draft. The A's now draft almost exclusively college players, a trend that has spread to other franchises. College coaches and scouts agree that the more major league clubs draft college players, the more high school talent will find its way to college campuses. And that should do nothing but elevate the level of play in college baseball.Recruiting at the college level for baseball is nothing like recruiting for college football. For one thing, NFL rules require players wait three college seasons before they're eligible for the pros.* Part of this restriction, surely, is the difference in financial clout between NCAA baseball and football programs. The sizes of the stadiums alone tell a big story: UCLA's Jackie Robinson Stadium seats 1,250, while the Bruins' home field of the Rose Bowl seats 90,000 -- nearly two orders of magnitude difference. So as Jim Callis recently wrote,"The longer a player has been playing, the more you can predict what kind of player he's going to be, and the more the stats bear that out," says Lamar coach Jim Gilligan, who while being firmly in the traditionalist camp essentially spells out the rationale for drafting more college players. "There's so much learning players at this level have to do. I like to think that we're pretty good at teaching it at the college level."
College teams have to walk a fine line in recruiting. They have to pursue players good enough to take them to Omaha, yet not so obviously good that major league clubs will pay them big money to turn pro.The Dirtbags' media guide has the Lewis's fingerprints all over it. Many current Dirtbags have either returned to college after short-season or semipro baseball, or were lower-round MLB draftees hoping to improve their status by playing in the college game:
| Player | Position | Previous Experience/Draft Status |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Anderson | RHP Starter | Alexandria Beetles, North County (Oceanside) Waves |
| Brett Andrade | RHP Starter | Fairbanks Goldpanners (2 summers) |
| Scott Bradley | UT | Drafted in 2003 by the Houston Astros in the 30th round, Anchorage Glacier Pilots in 2004 |
| Cody Evans | RHP | Cotuit Kettleers, Cape Cod League |
| Brandon Godfrey | RHP | Anchorage Glacier Pilots |
| Jared Hughes | RHP starter | 16th round draftee, Tampa Bay Devil Rays |
| Neil Jamison | RHP reliever | Drafted by the New York Mets in the 8th round of 2004; Anchorage Bucs (teammates with Jered Weaver). |
| Chris Jones | C | Drafted 48th round by the Montreal Expos in 2001 |
| Scott Juneau | RHP reliever | Anchorage Glacier Pilots |
| Andrew Liebel | RHP | Drafted in the 47th round by the Chicago Cubs, 2004 |
| Danny Mocny | 3B/OF | Alexandria Beetles (career leader in runs, steal, hits, triples, at-bats, and games played) |
| Cesar Ramos | LHP starter | 2004 Team USA, drafted by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in the 6th round in 2002 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | SS | Team USA starting SS |
The point here is that the players themselves, to some degree, have made a decision to come back to this level of play, the better to prove themselves, rather than just going into the draft at whatever level they happen to land. Is it working? The teams seem to think so. Voros McCracken, in the infamous Baseball America roundtable, said that teams have cut back scouting because of the higher level of competition:
I think part of the reason for the cutbacks in scouting is the emergence of college players. I think there’s as much scouting that you need to do on the college level. Colleges are bigger, the players are older. Whereas back when almost every player that was drafted was a high school player, back before I was around, you needed a lot of scouts because you needed to cover every corner of the country to do it. With all these college players playing at a fairly high level of competition, you can, to a certain extent, evaluate many of these college players based on their stats. So I think part of the reason for the cutbacks in scouting is that they’re probably not as necessary if you’re drafting college players.Of course, college ball isn't the only place to find talent overlooked by the majors. The Angels can testify to that, as two big pieces of their 2002 squad came from independent league ball: Brendan Donnelly and Ben Weber. MLB signed 112 players from indy ball during their season last year. There's plenty of reason to think, then, that the newly formed Long Beach Armada -- and the rest of the Golden Baseball League -- will have some very good players, too, when the time comes for them to play ball at Blair Field. (For more on the particulars, see this post about the GBL's tryouts held in December.)
*Update: Rich wrote to tell me that the NCAA restrictions are the same with baseball or football, so a player can't be signed by MLB for three years once he's signed with an NCAA program.
Comments:
" that the John Lewis book has had a notable effect on recruiting:"
Michael Lewis not John. Can't wait to read your stories when the Dirtbags and Mighty Titans meet up.
Michael Lewis not John. Can't wait to read your stories when the Dirtbags and Mighty Titans meet up.
# posted by 
: 2/13/2005 03:39:00 PM
: 2/13/2005 03:39:00 PMNewer› ‹Older
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