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Sunday, February 27, 2005

A Sickel-ey Projection System Tries To Predict D-Mac's 2005

John Sickels has a shiny new projection system, which he inaugurates with a projection of D-Mac's 2005. Without getting into the far greater detail Tom Meagher did with the Dodgers, here's three different projection systems side-by-side on D-Mac:
System   AB    H  2B  3B  HR  BB   K    BA/OBP/SLG     SB   CS
===============================================================
JSPS-2  445  118  24   5  22  36  115  .265/.320/.490   6    4
PECOTA  324   88  19   2  16  36   98  .272/.351/.496   5    2
ZiPS    501  138  26   6  27  47  153  .275/.341/.513  14    8
ZiPS is pretty clearly stoked about his power, and thinks he'll end up an easy Jackie Robinson Award winner next year, what with 27 dingers; all the systems seem to think he'll mash, with SLG's around the .500 mark, but only PECOTA seems to think he'll clear the .350 mark OBP. Unless PECOTA thinks he's going to be injured, though, you have to wonder why it assigns him only 324 AB's, and indeed, playing time, home runs, and strikeouts seem to be the biggest divergence between the three systems. ZiPS thinks he's going to flat-out stink in terms of strikeouts, with a .305 K rate, but the other two aren't far behind. None of the systems like his ability to steal bases, though you have to wonder why Mike would send him when he gets caught 57% of the time.

Update: More on this at The Fourth Outfielder, including a discussion of Marcels and Mariners prospect Jeremy Reed.


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