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Wednesday, March 02, 2005 |
Clay Davenport Translates Kendry Morales
With all the tedious drama of Kendry Morales' no-show in spring training, it's interesting for fans and Angels management alike to get some idea of whether the wait will be worth it. In Baseball Prospectus today, Clay Davenport translates the Cuban leagues for us, based on play data available from both particular players who emigrated to the U.S. (Orlando Hernandez and Jose Contreras, among others), as well as those who have participated in other international events, such as the Olympics. So what's it like playing in Cuba?
The Cubans, it turns out, play in a rocket-fueled offensive environment. The highest batting average for any North American league over the last four years was the .287 put up by the Pioneer League last year. The Mexican League is a high-offense league, and they peaked at .286. The Pacific Coast League maxes out at .284 over this time frame, while the majors top out at .270. The Cuban league sweeps the batting average category [at a four-year average of about .293].Since we now know the Cuban league stats for at least their Serie Nacional, Clay projects Kendry to a .281/.348/.449 (.274 EqA, 22 HR) line in the majors, numbers so optimistic Davenport feels obliged to qualify them "because [they aren't] allowing for the suddenness of jumping from low-A competition to a major-league level of play all at once." Still, that's remarkable for a 22-year-old kid -- if he indeed is that old. Clay notes that Cubans, like Dominicans, often have sketchy birthdates, and have the same performance pressures that cause them to fudge their ages, though he does note that Cubans haven't ever been caught using ringers in 16- and 18-year-old international competitions....[T]he top Cuban league is about equal, skill-wise, to the New York-Penn league. I'm sure that will come as a shock to many, seeing as how highly everyone regards the players on that particular island, but it does go a long way towards explaining why so many Cuban players have performed so poorly--our expectations were too high.
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