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Wednesday, March 16, 2005 |
Lucky
Studes at Hardball Times observes the delta between line drive percentage and BABIP gives a kind of luck factor to hits. If your BABIP (batting average of balls in play; essentially fair hit balls that stayed in the park) is higher than your line drive percentage, you're lucky. If your BABIP is less than your LD%, you're unlucky. Darin Erstad and Jeff DaVanon find themselves on the top lucky guys his list, but I wonder: if you attempt to bunt -- a lot -- and get a fair number of bunt singles, won't you end up on the "lucky" pile, even though you aimed for that result?
Update: Studes writes me to say that "the difference has to be extraordinary", and for Erstad and DaVanon, they just didn't bunt enough (1% for Erstad, 5% for DaVanon) to make a huge difference. From this we learn that Jeffy might be a little less lucky than Ersty, and look out below in 2005 when Erstad regresses to the mean. That might just be the opening the club needs to push Kotchman in, ever so gently.
Comments:
i would think that it's the opposite of what you're saying, rob. if you bunt a lot, then that brings your LD% down. and if those bunts turn into hits, then it raises your BABIP. this turning of non-line-drives into hits is why you see guys like ichiro and sanchez in the "lucky" category. though with ichiro, i think his high BABIP is also due in part to an greater than average ability to control where he hits the ball. i think icihiro can find a gap better than any hitter in baseball.
-vishal
-vishal
# posted by 
: 3/16/2005 10:10:00 AM
: 3/16/2005 10:10:00 AM
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