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Wednesday, April 13, 2005

Joe Sheehan On The Dodgers Bullpen

I hate to do so many small articles like this, but this one is certainly worthwhile reading. Once again, says Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus, the Dodgers have assembled an outstanding bullpen on the cheap (subscription required):
The Dodgers have applied this principle in assembling their bullpen this year. Conceding that the group looks a lot less impressive without Eric Gagne -- part of the elite tier of relievers, and the one in whom they invested $18 million -- the Dodgers' bullpen has no one else with much of a profile. Yesterday's three pitchers -- Giovanni Carrara, D.J. Houlton and Buddy Carlyle -- all spent at least part of '04 in the minors, and only Carrara pitched in the majors and was reasonably assured of a job this spring. Aside from Gagne, no Dodger reliever will make more than $500,000 this season, with that king's ransom going to Carrara.

...

If Gagne never came back, this would actually project as a slightly above-average bullpen. When Gagne does return, likely replacing Schmoll or Carlyle, it will be one of the best pens in the league. That's excellent work.


Comments:
And therein raising a good point: I'm not sure how good the Dodgers' pen actually is versus how good Sheehan actually perceives it to be. It may be another case of SABR-bias creeping in to their analysis.
 
I think it's far too early to make a judgment on the bullpen's quality, considering both the small sample size and the fact that Gagne and Alvarez are on the shelf.

Once they return, and (as the old cliche goes) people like Sanchez and Brazoban return to their proper roles, I think Sheehan makes a pretty good case that this should be a strong (and, aside from the Gagne deal, cost-effective) 'pen.
 

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