6-4-2 — an Angels/Dodgers double play blog

Of all places, thanks to Lone Star Ball for this Chicago Sun-Times article by sports columnist Jay Mariotti advocating the trade of Cubs pitcher Kerry Wood.

Considering he's going on 28 and is seven years removed from his 20K masterpiece, it's fair to conclude that Wood has become a head case weary of constant media and fan scrutiny. He claims he blocks out negative feedback, saying of the boos, "I didn't hear it.'' Believe me, he hears everything. Last month, in the harshest criticism yet of his delivery and mechanics, radio analyst Steve Stone called out Wood as a stubborn flamethrower who never learned the art of pitching. Said The Evil Stoney, who won a Cy Young Award back in the day: "Wood has shown no adaptability. You can take all the money you've made -- which is a bundle -- and you can go sell cars, or you can make some adjustments and try to stay around this league for 10 years.''

I tend to think such a trade is unlikely so long as Cubs GM Jim Hendry thinks the former Kid K has some gas left. For one thing, on a team that just left behind its biggest marquee player, it's unlikely Hendry will pull the plug on one of his bigger guns.

But say, for the moment, this fantasy has legs. The question I have: does this matter to either of the Angels or Dodgers? I can see this in two dimensions, internally (i.e., one of those clubs picks him up) and externally (he goes to a division rival). The internal case is the most interesting, so I will treat that first.

As Lone Star Ball put it,

Wood has the reputation -- and the paycheck -- of a legitimate ace, but his performance simply doesn't correspond with that. He's finished in the top 10 in ERA just twice -- 9th in 2001, and 8th in 2003. He's finished in the top 10 in WHIP just once -- 9th, in 2003. He's never finished in the top 10 in the Cy Young voting. And we aren't talking about some wet-behind-the-ears youngster anymore...Wood is in his 7th major league season, and turns 28 in June.

That is, his stock has fallen appreciably. For the Angels to pick him up it would require a trade of one or two top prospects, and assuming the remaining $24.5M on his contract. The Angels could do this in 2005 without breaking a sweat about payroll taxes, as they currently weigh in at $112.83M, according to Hardball Dollars, and Wood's 2005 salary amounts to a $9.5 addition. (The luxury tax threshold is $128M this year.) The question is, would Stoneman do such a thing? With the rotation as badly banged up as it has been, it's a possibility, but I posit an outside one. Stoneman almost never trades, Ortiz last year being an exception, and even that was a bit of clever maneuvering.

Would it make sense, though? To figure that out, you have to look at why Wood collapsed last year. Kerry Wood's recent history suggests that he gives up a lot of home runs, but just looking at the counting stats is somewhat simplistic. In 2004, he was near his career bests in batting average against, OBP against, and SLG against. The real keys to his 2004 collapse were simply the amount of time he spent on the DL (only appearing in 22 games) and the phenominal number of home runs per batter faced he gave up. Consider:

Year  Games  HR/TBF
=====================
1998   26    .0200
2000   23    .0282
2001   28    .0216
2002   33    .0246
2003   32    .0271
2004   22    .0269

His home run rate, therefore, is headed the wrong way. According to the ESPN park factors, we know Wrigley slightly favors hitters, but it suppresses home runs slightly. Angel Stadium, on the other hand, suppresses home runs and everything else but doubles, recently playing like a pitcher's park, despite the longer-term record of being a neutral park. For the Angels, it's a slim thread, but you could see that such an acquisition could have its benefits. As far as any theraputic value Buddy Black might be able to impart on Wood, I haven't seen him as a particularly good pitching coach, above average perhaps, but not in the Mazzone/Colburn class of gurus who have the reputation of salvaging careers. For the money, though, I don't see this as a good deal for the Angels; too much risk and not enough upside.

As to the Dodgers, well, they're in almost exactly the opposite situation. With a park that gives a substantial edge to home run hitters, Wood is likely to be at extreme peril, with the caveat that it's possible Jim Colburn might be able to make something of him. Recall the only effective part of Chan Ho Park's career took place in Dodger Stadium, and with or without Colburn at the time.

The final question is what happens if one of the two teams' division rivals should get Wood. For the reasons already mentioned at LSB, he's a bad fit for the Rangers because of his flyball proclivities. The A's don't have the money and don't need him; the M's have the money but little to trade. So for the AL West, I don't see a move unless Hendry goes into full dump mode, something Wood hasn't merited.

To the NL West: Forget the Rockies; the Padres are close to their budget limits, and likewise the Snakes (whose extreme hitter's park would eat Wood alive, anyhow). The Giants, however, are a very intriguing choice. With a park that's murder on home runs and a win-now mentality, I could very easily see the Giants making a run at Wood and emptying what's left of their farm system to do it, perhaps moving somebody on the order of a Noah Lowry. A team that features Kirk Reuter as one of its starters can't be that serious about making the postseason (of course, the Dodgers should talk: Scott Erickson).

Of course, all this is idle speculation. I don't think Hendry makes a move like this, but then, I was shocked when he picked up Nomar for a song.