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Saturday, June 11, 2005

Pondering Weaver

"I pitched 34 starts for them last year, and a couple guys didn't quite have that workload. I hope they understand what I bring to this club."
-- 6-5, 5.25 ERA Jeff Weaver, on the Dodgers' apparent lack of interest in him
Say this for Weaver's optimism: his lack of win production so far this year isn't affecting his peripherals, largely unchanged from last year:

Year    IP    ERA   dERA   K/9   K/BB   G/F   WHIP
==================================================
2004  220.0  4.01   4.40  6.26   2.28   1.06  1.30
2005   80.1  5.29   4.76  6.16   2.90   1.18  1.32

These numbers, by the way, are right in line with his career numbers. It's not an excuse for picking him up at the end of the year, but the team could do a lot worse, especially since the first crop of significant youngsters won't really hit until next year. His troubles are just a severe puzzle; even his .213 line drive percentage doesn't seem that out of line. So should the Dodgers re-sign him? I'm really not sure; it's going to depend a lot on the rest of his season. Recall back when Tom Meagher was writing the Fourth Outfielder that he found a number of players for whom Rule 5 eligibility will kick in this year. It was later determined that some of those players weren't actually so soon eligible, but the point is that DePodesta has a few options, and handing out millions to a flaky and yes, aging starting pitcher who still hasn't found consistent success is a value proposition whose fulcrum is price. I would put that price around $5M/two years at the longest; he's got some value, but certainly not anywhere near what he's being paid now.


Comments:
The stat you didn't show in the comparison is HR/9, which is the one area where Weaver's performance has significantly deteriorated.

2004 HR/9: 0.77
2005 HR/9: 1.46

Unless Weaver stops giving up the long ball to opposing pitchers and the like, he is going to have a tough time posting overall numbers similar to last year.
 

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