Proceeds from the ads below will be donated to the
Bob Wuesthoff scholarship fund.
Monday, June 27, 2005 |
Teams That Need To Take Heart: Third-Order Winners
According to new Hardball Times author Dan Fox of Dan Agonistes, we're about at the time where Pythagorean won-loss records become predictive for the season. Which means, it's time to take a look at those records for the AL and NL West (I here use the Pythagenport third-order numbers in Baseball Prospectus' adjusted standings):
Team W-L Pyth. W-L ============================ Angels 45-29 41-33 Rangers 38-35 41-32 A's 35-40 39-36 Mariners 33-40 35-38Which is to say, the Angels are a bit over their heads, and the Rangers are not as bad as they appear to be. Note that the Rangers would be a half game ahead of the Angels at the moment, with Oakland right behind the Angels. To the NL West:
Team W-L Pyth. W-L ================================ Padres 42-34 38-38 Dodgers 35-40 35-40 Diamondbacks 39-38 32-45 Giants 30-44 29-45 Rockies 25-48 27-46The big surprise here is just how far over their heads the Diamondbacks are, something Random Fandom lamented back in May. But this looks very much like the NL West is also becoming a stooge division, where all but one team has a winning record -- and just barely, at that.
Comments:
As the season progresses, I'm increasingly unable to dismiss the 3rd-order standings because the reason -- a bullpen that gives (nay, tithes) to other teams -- is one that is not likely to significantly improve, even if Brandon Lyon comes back and continues to pitch waaaay over his head.
Which is not to say that the D-Backs couldn't continue to get lucky, or the bullpen might improve slightly. And while the back of the pen is particularly bad, it's the one part of the team that can be mostly ignored in the improbable case that the D-Backs back their way into the playoffs.
The Angels sure have turned things around, though -- they used to be just as "lucky" as the D-Backs.
Which is not to say that the D-Backs couldn't continue to get lucky, or the bullpen might improve slightly. And while the back of the pen is particularly bad, it's the one part of the team that can be mostly ignored in the improbable case that the D-Backs back their way into the playoffs.
The Angels sure have turned things around, though -- they used to be just as "lucky" as the D-Backs.
Newer› ‹Older
 |
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.