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Monday, July 04, 2005 |
In Disaster, Opportunity
Jon looks to the camel-breaking straw of Drew's broken wrist as just the excuse the team needs to (a) retain Tracy, and (b) write off 2005. It makes some sense, but before the Dodgers start feeling too sorry for themselves, I would remind Mr. DePodesta that the Dodgers' DL list pales in comparison to the Angels', who lead the AL in games missed.
I say this partly to highlight the differences between the two teams' farm systems. The Dodgers, for all their good drafts, still aren't making usable spare parts, and the front office has all but directly blamed the junk currently playing at the major league level for its travails. But it's also true that DePodesta has taken a lot of chances on guys who have had the "injury risk" tag attached (Penny, Bradley, Werth, and Drew come immediately to mind) -- and has duly gotten burned. Houlton has been good at times, but the pixie dust wore off last night. Thompson found himself unused for most of a month and then sent down to AAA Las Vegas, where he's earned a 4.50 ERA in two starts. Cody Ross is filler. Mike Edwards could be a useful part (though he clearly has no business playing in the outfield), but Mike Rose is a big question mark.
For my part, I have no grand plan to save 2005; it's beyond redemption. I just don't know if it makes sense to be a buyer or a seller at the trade deadline.
Update: Does anybody else remember what the hit-by-pitch to Nomar Garciaparra's wrist did to his power?
Comments:
I guess you missed the part about the Angels leading the AL in days missed. I mean, yes, point taken the time for return, but I think the Dodgers' days lost due to injury isn't a complete answer. DePodesta needs to take some of the blame for this, and I'm not seeing it.
yeah, i'm with steve. who cares how many days lou merloni and curtis pride miss? frankie rodriguez was gone for a little while, but he's back. meanwhile, gagne is out for the season. guerrero missed a little time, but he's back and hasn't missed a beat. we haven't had our entire starting outfield intact since the beginning of the season. third base has been a revolving door of mediocrities. kelvim escobar has been gone most of the season, sure, but how does that compare with penny to start the season, then perez and dessens and alvarez to follow?
any way to pro-rate those DL days to projected VORP or something? that'll give you a better idea about which team has been hurt the most by injuries.
-vishal
any way to pro-rate those DL days to projected VORP or something? that'll give you a better idea about which team has been hurt the most by injuries.
-vishal
# posted by 
: 7/04/2005 01:30:00 PM
: 7/04/2005 01:30:00 PM
Just reiterating the fact that the Angels haven't lost anyone of consequence other thean Vlad and Escobar everyone else is either a part time player or has a sub .700 OPS.
Where on Earth would Salmon play on this team? Is he better than Juan Rivera? DaVanon? His lack of production the last couple of years would say no.
Where on Earth would Salmon play on this team? Is he better than Juan Rivera? DaVanon? His lack of production the last couple of years would say no.
Adam -- the 2003 Angels had just as many problems with inconsistency and the failure to recognize the thing called a career year (see Scott Spiezio, though in Stoneman's defense you will notice he didn't long-term him, either). The Angels ended up eating Appier's big contract, despite injuries to Salmon (again!).
Vishal: let me judo that response back at you: Dessens is a nonentity. There were concerns about Perez's shoulder before he was long-termed; should we dismiss that now?
Vishal: let me judo that response back at you: Dessens is a nonentity. There were concerns about Perez's shoulder before he was long-termed; should we dismiss that now?
Sanchez -- alert readers of this blog will realize I actually think DePodesta is the smarter of the two GMs here. That said, I also think DePo isn't taking enough blame here. That's not to say that I think he's got the majority share of it -- the injuries have been just bad luck, it's true -- but c'mon: OP's shoulder going down? You bet. Drew's knees acting up again? Tell me that was a surprise. (Not, of course, that that has been what's kept him off the diamond.)
Sure Kotchman, McPherson, and Santana haven't been perfect. But where's the love for Peralta and Woods? I just don't buy the age excuse, either. Some of these guys should be close to ready. We keep hearing about how great these drafts are; what are we supposed to do, wait until 2007 or 2008 until the farm starts producing? Some of these guys are going to be ready in three years.
Or maybe not, and it's all just the fabulists at Baseball America stroking scouting director ego.
Sure Kotchman, McPherson, and Santana haven't been perfect. But where's the love for Peralta and Woods? I just don't buy the age excuse, either. Some of these guys should be close to ready. We keep hearing about how great these drafts are; what are we supposed to do, wait until 2007 or 2008 until the farm starts producing? Some of these guys are going to be ready in three years.
Or maybe not, and it's all just the fabulists at Baseball America stroking scouting director ego.
Hey Rob, I'm not sure if you've read any of my DL analysis posts over at Dodger Thoughts. I decided to extend it to the Angels to test your claim that "the Dodgers' DL list pales in comparison to the Angels'". Based on my analysis, I'd say you're wrong. The Dodgers have lost approximately 11 days of WARP and the Angels have lost 8.5 days of WARP. The format for each player is Estimated Games Missed * WARP / Game = Total WARP Lost. I also included the Daily WARP Loss rate for current DL.
*Dodgers Pitchers = 4.965 Total; 0.046 Daily*
*Dodgers Hitters = 5.969 Total; 0.158 Daily*
*Dodgers Total = 10.934 Total; 0.204 Daily*
Vladimir Guerrero: 18 * 0.062 = 1.116 Total; 0 Daily
Steve Finley: 11 * 0.03 = 0.33 Total; 0.029 Daily
Orlando Cabrera: 1 * 0.034 = 0.034 Total; 0.032 Daily
Adam Kennedy: 22 * 0.041 = 0.902 Total; 0 Daily
Tim Salmon: 60 * 0.034 = 2.04 Total; 0.026 Daily
Bengie Molina: 17 * 0.028 = 0.476 Total; 0 Daily
Robb Quinlan: 1 * 0.002 = 0.002 Total; 0.001 Daily
Macier Izturis: 13 * 0.024 = 0.312 Total; 0 Daily
Lou Merloni: 8 * 0 = 0 Total; 0 Daily
Curtis Pride: 1 * 0 = 0 Total; 0 Daily
*Angels Pitchers = 5.212 Total; 0.088 Daily*
Kelvim Escobar: 11 * 0.166 = 1.826 Total; 0 Daily
Francisco Rodriguez: 7 * 0.051 = 0.357 Total; 0 Daily
Matt Hensley: 0 * 0.152 = 0 Total; 0 Daily
Bret Prinz: 34 * 0.03 = 1.02 Total; 0.014 Daily
*Angels Hitters = 3.203 Total; 0.014 Daily*
*Angels Total = 8.415 Total; 0.102 Daily*
The Angels have indeed been hit hard, but not as hard as the Dodgers. Additionally, the difference between the Angels farm system and the Dodgers is that the Angels have AAA talent, whereas the Dodgers do not. That helps tremendously when dealing with injuries. All of the Dodgers talent resides in AA or below, which is directly correlated with Logan White's tenure (2002-). The fact that they are not ready to contribute has to do with age (21 - 22 year olds) and draft philosophy (primary projectable high-school players). They're still going to be a lot of great major leaguers in the bunch, but we need to give them more time.
*Dodgers Pitchers = 4.965 Total; 0.046 Daily*
*Dodgers Hitters = 5.969 Total; 0.158 Daily*
*Dodgers Total = 10.934 Total; 0.204 Daily*
Vladimir Guerrero: 18 * 0.062 = 1.116 Total; 0 Daily
Steve Finley: 11 * 0.03 = 0.33 Total; 0.029 Daily
Orlando Cabrera: 1 * 0.034 = 0.034 Total; 0.032 Daily
Adam Kennedy: 22 * 0.041 = 0.902 Total; 0 Daily
Tim Salmon: 60 * 0.034 = 2.04 Total; 0.026 Daily
Bengie Molina: 17 * 0.028 = 0.476 Total; 0 Daily
Robb Quinlan: 1 * 0.002 = 0.002 Total; 0.001 Daily
Macier Izturis: 13 * 0.024 = 0.312 Total; 0 Daily
Lou Merloni: 8 * 0 = 0 Total; 0 Daily
Curtis Pride: 1 * 0 = 0 Total; 0 Daily
*Angels Pitchers = 5.212 Total; 0.088 Daily*
Kelvim Escobar: 11 * 0.166 = 1.826 Total; 0 Daily
Francisco Rodriguez: 7 * 0.051 = 0.357 Total; 0 Daily
Matt Hensley: 0 * 0.152 = 0 Total; 0 Daily
Bret Prinz: 34 * 0.03 = 1.02 Total; 0.014 Daily
*Angels Hitters = 3.203 Total; 0.014 Daily*
*Angels Total = 8.415 Total; 0.102 Daily*
The Angels have indeed been hit hard, but not as hard as the Dodgers. Additionally, the difference between the Angels farm system and the Dodgers is that the Angels have AAA talent, whereas the Dodgers do not. That helps tremendously when dealing with injuries. All of the Dodgers talent resides in AA or below, which is directly correlated with Logan White's tenure (2002-). The fact that they are not ready to contribute has to do with age (21 - 22 year olds) and draft philosophy (primary projectable high-school players). They're still going to be a lot of great major leaguers in the bunch, but we need to give them more time.
# posted by : 7/04/2005 09:42:00 PM
: 7/04/2005 09:42:00 PM
Additionally, I wanted to point out that the Dodgers are currently being hit twice as hard by injuries as the Angels.
# posted by : 7/04/2005 09:43:00 PM
: 7/04/2005 09:43:00 PM
Okay -- you win on points. But: I still have my doubts about the Dodgers farm. We keep hearing how great it is, but everybody worth a damn keeps stalling at AA or below. Wake me up when I should start being impressed.
It seems like the Angels or Orioles would be the best matches. Most other AL contenders already have a 1B/DH type. The Angels are getting a .648 OPS from their DH slot, and the Orioles are getting a .645 OPS. I'm having a tough time determining who the Dodgers would realistically ask for from the Angels. Perhaps they could get Larry Bigbie from the Orioles as a Grabowski-upgrade for a few years?
# posted by : 7/04/2005 11:40:00 PM
: 7/04/2005 11:40:00 PMNewer› ‹Older
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