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Monday, September 26, 2005 |
UTK Quick Hits
From today's UTK:
- I've received no less than three e-mails from people purporting to be third-base coaches. One has been confirmed and I'm working on the other two. The interesting part is that they all said nearly identical things regarding Johnny Damon. To paraphrase, they think that Damon's weakened throwing really damages the Red Sox pitching. First, they believe that Damon will be tested at nearly every opportunity. It's the second point that intrigues me. They told me that pitchers will be affected nearly as much. At key points, they believe that pitchers will nibble, trying to keep the ball from going to Damon, which will affect pitch selections, pitch counts and corner defense. The Sox would be well served if they used groundball pitchers more, especially in pressure situations.
Keith Foulke is not going to be in those pressure situations. He'll have surgery sometime next week, probably on both knees. If the Sox end up watching October rather than playing, it will be interesting to see how many old-schoolers come out raving about the importance of the closer, a position that didn't exist in its current form when most of them played.
- The Angels make for a nice test case. How much does one team rely on any one player? In 2004, Tom Gorman did some great work on how players are replaced when out with injuries and how much a team lost (or gained in some cases) in terms of production and wins during injuries. While he's still hard at work on perfecting the system and figuring out the pitching side of the equation, we can still take a look at Garret Anderson and note just what effect his back problems might have on the team. By shifting to DH, Anderson pushes Juan Rivera into the lineup, which isn't bad--Rivera has a materially similar MLVr. Where it gets costly is when Anderson cannot DH, forcing Steve Finley back onto the field with his negative VORP. Anderson's availability in some capacity allows the Angels to keep their best lineup going. Even with expanded rosters, teams still need their best players actually playing. Anderson will be spending a lot of time with [Angels head athletic trainer] Ned Bergert this week and into the playoffs.
- If Rich Harden can throw 98 mph, how can he be hurt? You might ask Kerry Wood the same question. Wood, you might remember, threw his last pitch of the year at that speed, then was on the operating table the very next day. Harden doesn't face surgery; it's Curt Young and Ken Macha who face tough decisions about how to use Harden. The A's will actually make the decision on the field. If the team can close the gap on Monday, Harden will likely get the start on Tuesday, shadowed by another starter, likely to be Joe Kennedy. Even with a simulated game and a reduced arsenal--Harden isn't throwing change-ups, which raises some interesting questions about his mechanics--no one seems to know long Harden can go or how effective he can be.
I saw Harden throw in last night's 6-2 loss to Texas, and while he did have some control issues -- he tossed a couple well wide of the plate -- he also didn't give up any runs. The Angels could have some real problems if he can start on Tuesday; best to get the win first thing, but I'm sure Mike wouldn't ever tell the boys that.
Comments:
Um, I am not so convinced that GA in the lineup is the best lineup going forward. Certainly GA should not be the #3 hitter, he really should bat 6 or 7. For Aug/ Sept:
GA = HR every 51 AB'S
VLAD = HR every 14 AB's
bengie = HR every 40 AB's
Finley = HR every 28 AB's
Rivera = HR every 26 AB's
Kotch = HR every 14 AB's
For hitting IN FRONT of Vlad, where one sees great pitches as you do not want to walk the guy in front of Vlad, GA has lost his "power stroke."
Bench GA until Saturday. Let him rest, for he is bringing NOTHING to the table currently. Last 10 games {.195/.214/.268, 3 2Bs, 0 HR, 1 BB, 7 K}, that is autrocious for a #3 batter in front of Vlad.
GA = HR every 51 AB'S
VLAD = HR every 14 AB's
bengie = HR every 40 AB's
Finley = HR every 28 AB's
Rivera = HR every 26 AB's
Kotch = HR every 14 AB's
For hitting IN FRONT of Vlad, where one sees great pitches as you do not want to walk the guy in front of Vlad, GA has lost his "power stroke."
Bench GA until Saturday. Let him rest, for he is bringing NOTHING to the table currently. Last 10 games {.195/.214/.268, 3 2Bs, 0 HR, 1 BB, 7 K}, that is autrocious for a #3 batter in front of Vlad.
# posted by 
: 9/26/2005 09:31:00 PM
: 9/26/2005 09:31:00 PM
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