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Friday, October 21, 2005 |
Pickoff Moves, Morning Edition
Who's Gonna Win It All?
The Vegas odds favor the White Sox 4:1 over the Astros at 12:1. From my point of view, the Sox have home field advantage, not to mention something David Pinto brought up, the fact that the Chisox' pitchers can go deep into games. Roger Clemens is a seven-inning pitcher, and that's assuming he's working in the warm weather of Texas. As with Randy Johnson, another old pitcher, expect Clemens to encounter trouble if the weather is cold. Clemens is pitching game 1, and gametime temperature should be in the 40's. On the other hand, the Sox are the sixth luckiest team to get to the World Series as rated by Pythagorean record; only one such overachieving team has won the World Series. BPro's postseason odds report gives the Sox as slight favorites, 52:48; their third-order adjusted standings wouldn't even have them going to the postseason, losing the AL Central by a whopping 11 games, the Indians taking the division with a 98-64 record.Personally, I like the home field advantage, and the Sox don't seem to have shown any signs of melting down from their overachievement. Sox in six, but if Clemens gets a win Saturday, all bets are off.
Leo Mazzone To Baltimore
The Braves' storied pitching coach Leo Mazzone has accepted a position with Baltimore according to apparently unconfirmed reports. Will this end the Braves' dominance of the NL East?World Series Umpire Crew Mysteriously Missing Doug Eddings
And yet "Cowboy" Joe West is on the list. Go figure.Manny Ramirez To The Angels?
Just Say No, Arte!Steve Stone, Diamondbacks GM?
Well, no, but this Arizona Republic article is a cute read.
Comments:
Before saying no, Stoneman better make sure he knows what he's saying no to! Ramirez is a player who can change an organization around.
If by "cute read," you mean "morning-beverage spewing," then, yeah, sure.
Bickley (the author of the Stone column) is usually a good read and a capable morning talk show host here in Phoenix, but his fascination with his friends from his Chicago days is a bit much sometimes.
Bickley (the author of the Stone column) is usually a good read and a capable morning talk show host here in Phoenix, but his fascination with his friends from his Chicago days is a bit much sometimes.
Clemens doesn't have issues with the cold quite like Randy does. Unlike Randy, he's played many autumn years in Boston, New York, and Toronto. That being said, I don't think Clemens will be as dominant as Oswalt.
As impressive as the Sox's 4 straight complete games were, Houston shutting down the Cards is even more so.
I'm picking Astros in 6. Astros have a more balanced offensive lineup than the Angels. Astros have arguably the best top-3 in baseball. Sox may be well-rested to a fault, whereas the Astros will have had 3 days off and be mentally all there.
As impressive as the Sox's 4 straight complete games were, Houston shutting down the Cards is even more so.
I'm picking Astros in 6. Astros have a more balanced offensive lineup than the Angels. Astros have arguably the best top-3 in baseball. Sox may be well-rested to a fault, whereas the Astros will have had 3 days off and be mentally all there.
# posted by 
: 10/21/2005 10:16:00 AM
: 10/21/2005 10:16:00 AM
While I agree that shutting down the Cardinals is more impressive than shutting down the Angels, it is not as impressive as shutting down the Red Sox. I don't see how this whole series isn't decided almost entirely by 3-2 scores based on cheap home runs from two very homer happy parks.
# posted by : 10/21/2005 10:43:00 AM
: 10/21/2005 10:43:00 AM
I expect a couple of 1-0 games myself. Should be very, very entertaining, hopefully with some dazzling D to mix in.
I'm cheering for the Astros and expecting the White Sox to win.
I'm cheering for the Astros and expecting the White Sox to win.
Even with home field advantage, I have to believe it'll either be the Astros in five or the Chisox in six or seven.
The odds you linked to were from late September. Updated lines are:
Sox -125
Astros +105
In other words, the Sox are the favorites to win the series - a bet of $125 wins you $100. A bet of $100 on the Astros wins you $105.
Odds on specific results:
Sox sweep - 12/1
Sox 4-1 - 11/2
Sox 4-2 - 15/4
Sox 4-3 - 19/5
Astros 4-3 - 5/1
Astros 4-2 - 9/2
Astros 4-1 - 6/1
Astros sweep - 16/1
Sox -125
Astros +105
In other words, the Sox are the favorites to win the series - a bet of $125 wins you $100. A bet of $100 on the Astros wins you $105.
Odds on specific results:
Sox sweep - 12/1
Sox 4-1 - 11/2
Sox 4-2 - 15/4
Sox 4-3 - 19/5
Astros 4-3 - 5/1
Astros 4-2 - 9/2
Astros 4-1 - 6/1
Astros sweep - 16/1
Mazzone left because he is best friends with the new Baltimore manager, and promised him years ago if he was ever a MLB manager he would be his pitching coach.
Also, why are you against getting the ManRam???
Also, why are you against getting the ManRam???
# posted by : 10/21/2005 02:49:00 PM
: 10/21/2005 02:49:00 PM
1) Expensive.
2) Nutjob.
3) Flake.
4) Malcontent.
The Angels don't have a lot of payroll flexibility right now. Picking up his contract would be insane.
2) Nutjob.
3) Flake.
4) Malcontent.
The Angels don't have a lot of payroll flexibility right now. Picking up his contract would be insane.
I love Manny in the same way I love TO. I'm glad he's not on my team. :)
This goes back to the increased payroll = albatross thing too. Angels need to make changes at various spots as well as buy some power. But they've been remarkably dysfunction free too. What if Manny came here and put up Cabrera numbers?
This goes back to the increased payroll = albatross thing too. Angels need to make changes at various spots as well as buy some power. But they've been remarkably dysfunction free too. What if Manny came here and put up Cabrera numbers?
# posted by : 10/21/2005 04:12:00 PM
: 10/21/2005 04:12:00 PM
Any deal for the ManRam would surely involve getting rid of a contract, the most likely suspect being Garret Anderson's. GA would also slide into the vacated spot in front of the Green Monster. That sheds $36 million. Epstein isn't dumb enough to do that, though. Whatever the cost in dollars and headaches, ManRam will probably out-perform GA over the next three years.
Of course, ideally the Angels would send back a bit more money, and I'm thinking the last $8 million owed to Erstad. The Sox would still be saving about $13 million.
Heck, if Epstein would take Erstad, I'd thrown in his choice of IF prospects not named Brandon Wood.
Of course, ideally the Angels would send back a bit more money, and I'm thinking the last $8 million owed to Erstad. The Sox would still be saving about $13 million.
Heck, if Epstein would take Erstad, I'd thrown in his choice of IF prospects not named Brandon Wood.
# posted by : 10/21/2005 07:18:00 PM
: 10/21/2005 07:18:00 PM
GA and Erstad are 10/5 players, meaning they have full notrade clauses. Anyway, Boston will not want GA or Erstad contracts, if they were forced to deal ManRam they would want that salary to go to pursuing Burnett, Wagner, Konerko, or Damon.
The Angels will have the money. Each team in MLB gets $12-$15 extra next year with the new TV contract and sale of Nationals. In addition to the imminent Angel TV contract. Arte said the team had no payroll flexibility, was set with the salary, and then signed Vlad in 2002, for he was a "special" player.
I'm sure the Angels will let Bengie and Washburn walk. The Angels have a glut of IF prospects, there is not enough starting jobs for all of them in the future. I feel the Angels will not get in the playoffs next year unless they add a premier bat, is Arte, much less fans willing to let next year be a "build year" or a "transition year"?
The Angels will have the money. Each team in MLB gets $12-$15 extra next year with the new TV contract and sale of Nationals. In addition to the imminent Angel TV contract. Arte said the team had no payroll flexibility, was set with the salary, and then signed Vlad in 2002, for he was a "special" player.
I'm sure the Angels will let Bengie and Washburn walk. The Angels have a glut of IF prospects, there is not enough starting jobs for all of them in the future. I feel the Angels will not get in the playoffs next year unless they add a premier bat, is Arte, much less fans willing to let next year be a "build year" or a "transition year"?
# posted by : 10/21/2005 09:01:00 PM
: 10/21/2005 09:01:00 PM
YoT -- Arte said on or before October 11, 2003 that the team would have a $90M payroll (at the time it was about $79M). Vlad was signed in the 2003/4 offseason. As to the premier bat, I still think McPherson could be that bat once healthy and with sufficient experience under his belt. I just don't see a free agent bat available who doesn't conflict with somebody at either DH or 1B (Konerko) or is going to be a problem of the sort Stoneman has already shown a disinclination towards (Manny Ramirez == Jose Guillen).
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