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Monday, October 03, 2005 |
Voulez Vous Coucher Avec Moi Ce Soir, 2005 Postseason Edition
Since it went so well last time (or not), I figure I'd give this one a shot before we all got started. Remember, this has absolutely zero analysis in it, just my uninformed opinion based on a few observations.
Okay, guys. Let's get it on!
Division Series
Yankees/Angels
One of the things I truly like about Alex Belth is that he is brutally honest about his chosen team, something that comes out in today's pre-postseason analysis. Citing the thing we hate already about so many Yankees fans -- the annoying and infinitely deep sense of entitlement -- he forwards this piece of incredula that claims the Yankees have the better starting rotation, despite the fact that the Angels lead the league in rotation ERA.For the Halos, that's the good news. The pen, also a source of good news, is three-quarters of a point lower than the Yanks in ERA. That said, without knowing who the Yankees are going to put out there in the 'pen -- and their best two guys, Flash Gordon and Mariano Rivera, are aging -- it's hard to know how this will work out. The Angels have similar problems with depth: raise your hand if you think Kevin Gregg will get more than an inning of work in even a lost cause game.
Offensively, it's not even close, and you must give the Yanks their due. Once you get past Vlad, guys who can clear the fence in one swing are hard to come by for the Angels. As a result, I'm going to go anti-homer and say the Yankees in five, the Bombers' offense carrying a threadbare but serviceable rotation in closely-fought games. If the Angels advance, I'll be happy, but it's too easy to call this one a crapshoot.
Red Sox/White Sox
The White Sox got where they are because of massive improvements in run prevention. Even with big bopper Frank Thomas again on the DL, they're still one of the most home run dependent teams in the league. As Nate Silver writes in today's BPro, these are two very closely matched teams, believe it or not. He likes the Red Sox in five, and I won't disagree with him.Padres/Cardinals
This one's a gimme, or should be, until you realize that the Cards actually have a losing record against the Pads. I'm going to give the one-game-above-.500 Pads the biggest of breaks here and say Cardinals in four. Too bad the Pads didn't draw the Braves, against whom they're 5-1.Astros/Braves
Unlike last year, the 'stros do not have Carlos Beltran, though their pitching is slightly improved due to a healthy Andy Pettitte. I predict Braves in five, advancing to the second round for the first time in six years.League Championship Series
ALCS: Red Sox/Yankees
Assuming the Yanks get past the Angels, it's difficult to see how the Red Sox repeat. I mean, it could happen, but the Yanks once again have home field advantage. I'm going to say they advance for the first time since 2003 -- oh, what, only two years ago? Yankees in seven.NLCS: Braves/Cardinals
The Cards ain't the best team in the NL for nothing, and another squish. Cards in five.World Series: Cardinals/Yankees
This was the matchup I expected to see last year, and this time I'm picking the Cardinals in six for no apparent reason, other than I think they're a more balanced and thoroughly sound club than the Yanks. They have more consistent pitching in the rotation, a good bullpen, and a top half of the lineup that, while nursing injuries to key guys all year, is still producing well.Okay, guys. Let's get it on!
Comments:
I picked them to lose last year, you'll note. Right on cue.
Really, comparing this squad to the 2002 bunch, who do they have that strikes fear into the hearts of pitchers, Vlad aside? I mean, it's okay to trot Rivera out there on an irregular basis during the regular season, but until the Angels get somebody to replace Glaus and Salmon, I'm just not convinced that this lineup will do enough offensive damage to get out of the first round.
Really, comparing this squad to the 2002 bunch, who do they have that strikes fear into the hearts of pitchers, Vlad aside? I mean, it's okay to trot Rivera out there on an irregular basis during the regular season, but until the Angels get somebody to replace Glaus and Salmon, I'm just not convinced that this lineup will do enough offensive damage to get out of the first round.
...well good thing then that the 2005 Angels do not have to face the 2002 Angels in this series...
# posted by 
: 10/03/2005 04:05:00 PM
: 10/03/2005 04:05:00 PM
I call it a wash between iffy Yankees starting pitching and iffy Angels run production.
To me, it's a question of whether the Angels starters can hold their leads against that lineup, and then get to the bullpen.
To me, it's a question of whether the Angels starters can hold their leads against that lineup, and then get to the bullpen.
# posted by : 10/03/2005 05:15:00 PM
: 10/03/2005 05:15:00 PM
Amazingly enough, when I was discussing this topic with my husband this evening, I picked a different outcome to *every* series but Padres/Cardinals. And I usually think the things you say are right on...
Well, last year, every one of my picks lost, except the Red Sox against the Yankees, but that was just the teams I *wanted* to win, not the ones I actually thought would win.
Well, last year, every one of my picks lost, except the Red Sox against the Yankees, but that was just the teams I *wanted* to win, not the ones I actually thought would win.
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