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Monday, December 26, 2005

Rangers Sign Kevin Millwood

The Texas Rangers have signed Kevin Millwood to a four year deal, with an option for a fifth, according to the Dallas/Fort Worth Star-Telegram. No terms yet, but I'll get 'em when they come across the bow.

Update: MLB.com narrows the price between $11M and $12M/year. ABC News says the contract is 5 years/$60M, with the fifth year voidable if Millwood doesn't throw enough innings. Did Chan Ho Park leave them with a bad taste in their mouth?

Analysis: Clearly, once the Rangers lost Kenny Rogers -- a move made inevitable after he did his best Sean Penn imitation by punching out KDFW cameraman Larry Rodriguez -- they had to do something to install a guy to lead the rotation. Whether Millwood is that guy is another question. He seems to me to be one of those pitchers who, having had Leo Mazzone's magic wand waved over him once, has become a guy that the Phillies and Indians have hoped would rediscover his 1999 form, when he had a 2.68 ERA and a 3.48 K/BB ratio. Last year, the Indians got that guy, but for most of his career he's been a barely above-average pitcher. Because he's a free agent this year, he'll certainly collect an astonishing paycheck for five years of mediocrity -- and it might be worse than that because of the park affects at Nitromethane Park At Arlington.


Comments:
Millwood's career ERA and WHIP: 3.76 and 1.24. Roger's career ERA and WHIP: 4.21 and 1.40. Seems like a significant upgrade to me, but I'm not accounting for ballpark effects.
 
Millwood and Adam Eaton will help, but they STILL need three more starters! (Unless you count Benoit, Loe, and Dominguez as "starters")
 
Millwood was second behind Jarrod Washburn on the list of guys whose ERA dramatically outperformed their dERA. He just got lucky is all, which may be correlated to his switch to a new division and league. I don't think he's anything like an upgrade; the worst case scenario is Chan Ho Park II.
 
Well, his ERA last year was under 3.00 as I recall, so yeah there was some luck involved. But his career ERA and WHIP still point to a pretty good pitcher, not Chan Ho Park II.
 
Are you so sure, though? Check out Park's baseball-reference page -- one of his comps is Millwood. Despite modern-day revisionist history, Park was a groundball pitchers tossing in pitcher-friendly park prior to his big-dollar contract with the Rangers. But at least he kept the ball on the ground; Millwood through the early part of his career has erred on the side of the flyball, though in recent years he's controlled that. Nonetheless, his strikeouts don't impress me that much, and the Rangers' home park is pretty harsh.
 
Guess we'll find out next year...
 
I'm still surprised that the Rangers traded Chris Young for Adam Eaton, given Young's youth, promise, low salary -- and the fact that Eaton is in his walk year.
 

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