Proceeds from the ads below will be donated to the
Bob Wuesthoff scholarship fund.
Monday, January 23, 2006 |
Jeff Erickson On The Angels' Peculiar 2006 Lineup
Jeff Erickson has a fantasy spin on the Angels' lineup which is definitely worth reading (assuming you already have a subscription, and why don't you?). Like a lot of guys watching the club from a distance, Erickson wonders how the team's going to improve its slugging percentage, saying
Moving Erstad to center field is a good first step, in that it gets Kotchman in the lineup sooner. After a slow start in 2005, Kotchman's bat came around over the second half, first at Triple-A Salt Lake and later upon his recall by the Angels, where in 126 at-bats he had as many homers as Erstad had all year (seven). A full season of Kotchman in the lineup should at least give the Angels league-average production from the first base slot, something they haven't had in years and now need more than ever. From a defensive perspective, Erstad had an excellent reputation in center field before his move to first base, one that was precipitated by his inability to stay healthy. The questions about Erstad's hamstring linger, so it's a good bet to project a slight reduction in playing time for him due to the demands of the position.It's a good start as far as it goes, but the assumption is that none of the Angels' rookies or near-rookies (Dallas McPherson, are your ears burning?) won't do reasonably well. With first base essentially settled by the Angels' moving Erstad to center, that leaves third base as the corner infield position with a question mark, and three possible candidates to fill it: Chone Figgins, Edgardo Alfonzo, and Dallas McPherson. Alfonzo, who hit .277/.327/.345 overall but a surprising .314/.364/.400 at home, is unlikely to earn anything but a bench role in 2006. Figgins is the most likely starter, with McPherson providing DH coverage. Erickson thinks playing time will break down thusly:
We increased Kotchman's playing time projection by 10% across the board, increasing his strikeout rate slightly because he'll be facing more left-handers. We decreased Erstad's playing time projection by 10%, out of fear of more injuries by playing center field. Alfonzo's playing time projection decreased by 35%, and McPherson took the biggest hit, dropping his projected playing time in half.But I sort of doubt that; this is a team that is in desperate need of playing its rookies. D-Mac needs to have a good year, and I can't imagine Scioscia subtracting at bats from Dallas to hand them to a guy who won't be with the team next year and is already in steep decline. Here's how I see this breaking down:
Pos Opening Day June 1 July 20
======================================================================== C Jeff Mathis/Jose Molina Mathis/Molina Mathis/Molina 1B Casey Kotchman Kotchman Kotchman 2B Adam Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy/Howie Kendrick SS Orlando Cabrera Cabrera Cabrera 3B Chone Figgins McPherson McPherson LF Garret Anderson Anderson Anderson/Rivera CF Darin Erstad Figgins Figgins RF Vlad Guerrero Guerrero Guerrero DH Dallas McPherson Juan Rivera Edgardo Alfonzo?
That is --
- Erstad will blow up in centerfield. The Angels are planning on it. Who cares? He's not under contract next year, he's no longer an offensive force at the plate, and there's a solid defensive CF in line behind him in Figgins. The real question is how to deal with the shift in DH. Planning for this means McPherson gets some knocks in at DH without his defense at 3B being a liability.
- If Kendrick gets his callup midseason this year -- and the way he's been hitting, why not? -- Kennedy's playing time could be seriously constrained.
- Anderson will almost certainly spend significant time on the DL. This opens the door for one of several possible replacements, one of whom is Nick Gorneault. Privately, one of my co-workers who happens to be Nick's cousin, told me he had a private workout earlier in the month with the club; why, I don't know, and I don't have more details than that just yet, but it's certainly odd that they would do something like that before spring training, especially with him on the 40-man already.
- I very much doubt the Angels will cut McPherson's playing time to make room for Edgardo Alfonzo.
Comments:
The sentimentalist in me sees a healthy Tim Salmon making the club, and managing to start finding some AB as a DH against lefties around mid-June once Erstad goes down/out, to be replaced by Figgins, with Dallas at 3B. A possible righty-righty/lefty combo develops at DH of Rivera, Salmon & Anderson (with those three also rotating through LF).
I'm all for giving Gornealt a shot, but first I want to find out if Salmon is healthy; if he is, I really think he could have something to contribute...esp. with his willingness to take a walk.
I'm all for giving Gornealt a shot, but first I want to find out if Salmon is healthy; if he is, I really think he could have something to contribute...esp. with his willingness to take a walk.
# posted by 
: 1/24/2006 12:09:00 AM
: 1/24/2006 12:09:00 AM
i absolutely agree Howie sees a good chunk in Anaheim this year. I'nm starting to wonder if we'll see Aybar too - he's raking in the Domincan, and Wood should be in SLC next year. Hopefully they'll both find a spot in SLC in April at a position that will fill the teams 2006 needs - i.e., OF or 3B.
I think Kingfish will help too - half of that is just plain ol' wishful thinking though. On one hand, 37 is not that old, but what will hurt is his long layoff.
I think Kingfish will help too - half of that is just plain ol' wishful thinking though. On one hand, 37 is not that old, but what will hurt is his long layoff.
Erstad will blow up in centerfield. The Angels are planning on it.
I'm on record as saying I don't see a downside to Erstad getting hurt, but at the same time, why is everyone so sure he'll be an injury risk? When was the last time he hurt himself in center? Maybe his broken hand, but a) I don't know if they ever disclosed how it happened, and b) it sure didn't hurt him in the playoffs. The last significant time he missed while playing center field came when he injured himself running the bases, which he'll have to do no matter where they play him.
I'm on record as saying I don't see a downside to Erstad getting hurt, but at the same time, why is everyone so sure he'll be an injury risk? When was the last time he hurt himself in center? Maybe his broken hand, but a) I don't know if they ever disclosed how it happened, and b) it sure didn't hurt him in the playoffs. The last significant time he missed while playing center field came when he injured himself running the bases, which he'll have to do no matter where they play him.
I don't see Kendrick getting any time at second base unless Kennedy gets hurt, and even then it's probably unlikely (Figgins or Alfonzo or Izturis would probably sub for Kennedy in the event he went down).
Bear in mind also that Stoneman and comapny are big believers in players gaining experience at every level of minor league baseball before promoting them; in fact, Stoneman has said as much in several interviews.
At this point, Stoneman's plan for second base appears clear: allow Kennedy to play out his contract and replace him with Kendrick in 2007.
Bear in mind also that Stoneman and comapny are big believers in players gaining experience at every level of minor league baseball before promoting them; in fact, Stoneman has said as much in several interviews.
At this point, Stoneman's plan for second base appears clear: allow Kennedy to play out his contract and replace him with Kendrick in 2007.
# posted by : 1/24/2006 07:11:00 AM
: 1/24/2006 07:11:00 AM
I still contend D Mac was beginning to understand ML pitching right before he went down. And the fact that he was playing injured THE WHOLE TIME, I think the results are understandable. I think all his detractors better plan a feast of crow to dine upon when the year is over.
# posted by : 1/24/2006 07:12:00 AM
: 1/24/2006 07:12:00 AM
I'm on record as saying I don't see a downside to Erstad getting hurt, but at the same time, why is everyone so sure he'll be an injury risk? When was the last time he hurt himself in center?
The last time he played in center. And yes, I have a feeling they're related.
The last time he played in center. And yes, I have a feeling they're related.
Anon -- my hunch is that you're right about Dallas, and this is why the Angels have been less-than-big spenders this offseason.
I tend to agree with how you project things to play out. Rivera will probably also get some DH at bats during Opening Day, especially against Lefties.
Sciosica tried that sort of platoon with DaVanon last year and while Rivera hit better vs. RHPs, I have a hunch that Mike will still try it.
Sciosica tried that sort of platoon with DaVanon last year and while Rivera hit better vs. RHPs, I have a hunch that Mike will still try it.
BTW, Casper, if Kendrick starts the year at AAA -- hardly inconceivable -- I don't see a midseason callup as implausible, either.
Seems like a reasonable analysis, but if Alfonzo is the Angels DH come July, I predict a very weak offense in the last couple of months of the season. I think (I hope) Quinlan would get a shot before Alfonzo.
# posted by : 1/24/2006 09:30:00 AM
: 1/24/2006 09:30:00 AMNewer› ‹Older
 |
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.