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Wednesday, May 31, 2006 |
Two Games
Pigeonhole Principle: Braves 9, Dodgers 3
So far as I can tell, the Dodgers are, or depending on your point of view, will shortly be victims of the Pigeonhole Principle, well known to mathematicians; to wit,if n pigeons are put into m pigeonholes, and if n > m, then at least one pigeonhole must contain more than one pigeon.That is to say, the Dodgers have five rotation slots that need filling and only three reliable pitchers, Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, and... okay, make that two reliable pitchers, with Jae Seo having a track record of inconsistency, Aaron Sele being both old and consistently falling apart in the second half, and Odalis Perez pitching like he was either in pain or drunk half the time (and most of the time this year). And then there's Brett Tomko, who's hovered at just under league average for most of his career. Those sneering at the Angels picking up Jeff Weaver might want to consider that though Weaver has sucked so far, he's also spent more time above league average than below it, a claim Tomko cannot make.
Sure, Chad Billingsley has a shot at beating out somebody in the current rotation once it becomes clear that the Dodgers can no longer tolerate getting whipped every time it's Seo's, Sele's, or Tomko's turn up, but that's still only one hole. My continued concerns for this team's rotation appear to be perfectly well founded.
That aside, I mention in passing the fine game by Andre Ethier, who provided the team with a triple and a single (the Dodgers, of course, could not cash him in), and Nomar, who had a solo homer, providing a third of the team's offense all by himself. It's hard to complain about a loss like this considering the Dodgers took a series from a team expected to contend every year, and on the road as well; it's a good series win.
Coming up tonight, a transcontinental flight and a home series starting tomorrow against the Phillies, another team above .500. The Dodgers may get a taste of the hiding they gave the Braves on Monday, as Derek Lowe goes up against Gavin Floyd... on the other hand, Floyd sports a 6.62 ERA, the Phils are just coming off a 3-2 loss to the Nationals, and they have to make the same long flight to LA. (What is wrong with the schedulers?)
Ervin Santana, It's Salt Lake On Line One: Twins 7, Angels 1
A syllogism:- Ervin Santana has an 8.11 ERA, 0-1 record in day games, and a 7.09 ERA, 1-2 record in away games.
- Jered Weaver has pitched one brilliant game, and will get every opportunity to continue doing so until he fails.
- Jeff Weaver is showing signs of turning his game around, and is owed the majority of $8M.
- Bartolo Colón will make a return to the big club within a couple of weeks, and is owed even more money than Jeff Weaver.
- Ervin Santana has but rarely pitched in relief.
- Therefore, Santana has earned a ticket back to Salt Lake.
Comments:
Apart from a bad 1st inning, Santana didn't pitch all that badly. No walks; in fact, his problem was too many pitches in the strike zone (and in the middle of the strike zone) in the 1st inning.
More often than not, he comes away with a win or a no-decision with a performance like tonight's.
The Angels' problem was that they didn't hit a ball out of the infield until Vlad's flyout to end the 6th.
That, and the six errors (the official scorekeeper only counted three, but they committed at least five, and in my scorecard, there were six).
During the game, it was announced that Kelvim Escobar just signed a 3-year contract extension (financial terms not posted on the Jumbotron), so it looks like he'll be in the rotation for a while, although the bullpen could sure use the help. If Kelvim were to help there, Santana would remain in the rotation. Now that he's got his money, what does he care whether he's used as a starter or reliever?
More often than not, he comes away with a win or a no-decision with a performance like tonight's.
The Angels' problem was that they didn't hit a ball out of the infield until Vlad's flyout to end the 6th.
That, and the six errors (the official scorekeeper only counted three, but they committed at least five, and in my scorecard, there were six).
During the game, it was announced that Kelvim Escobar just signed a 3-year contract extension (financial terms not posted on the Jumbotron), so it looks like he'll be in the rotation for a while, although the bullpen could sure use the help. If Kelvim were to help there, Santana would remain in the rotation. Now that he's got his money, what does he care whether he's used as a starter or reliever?
# posted by 
: 5/31/2006 11:15:00 PM
: 5/31/2006 11:15:00 PM
Matthew -- what difference does it make for the Angels? Santana has an option year left. Putting Escobar in the bullpen makes him an expensive piece; I'd rather have more innings of him in the rotation, assuming he stays healthy, especially considering he leads the rotation in ERA at the moment.
Prediction based on nothing changing prior to Colon's return: Colon returns June10, Santana to the 'pen, Donnelly to the DL.
# posted by : 5/31/2006 11:34:00 PM
: 5/31/2006 11:34:00 PM
Rob - let's wait and see what Weaver the Younger does in his next outing before he takes Santana's spot.
re my comment about Escobar: he's made it clear that he wants to be a starter & considers himself as such, and that he wanted to be paid as such. My remark was meant to suggest only that if it turns out that he's needed in the 'pen, he should go there, and with an extension in hand he could hardly complain that a move to the 'pen would cost him FA dollars. That's all.
re my comment about Escobar: he's made it clear that he wants to be a starter & considers himself as such, and that he wanted to be paid as such. My remark was meant to suggest only that if it turns out that he's needed in the 'pen, he should go there, and with an extension in hand he could hardly complain that a move to the 'pen would cost him FA dollars. That's all.
# posted by : 6/01/2006 12:06:00 AM
: 6/01/2006 12:06:00 AM
And count me among those who are skeptical about Colon's status for the rest of 2006. If his shoulder didn't heal with 3+ months of rest & rehab this winter, why should we think it will be healed with 3+ weeks of rest & rehab during the season?
# posted by : 6/01/2006 12:25:00 AM
: 6/01/2006 12:25:00 AM
The WBC was in March. The season ended in October. By my count, he had all of November, December, and January to heal, plus parts of October and February. That would be three months plus. Unless you're implying that it healed completely and he just happened to get the same injury in the same shoulder in the WBC, it pretty clearly never fully healed.
Hasn't Big Brother pitched much worse this year? And the Angels have much less invested in Big Brother's future success, so they are more likely to let Santana work through his problems than they are to let Big Brother to? Especially since Santana wasn't really to blame for last night's loss (I would say the offense for doing nothing and then Romero for removing any possibility of a comeback the way he pitched in the 9th were the culprits).
Sure, Jeff's been bad this year, but, see above. He has a track record of mediocrity, which is to say, there's every reason to believe he'll return to that. It would be a step up from where he is now.
Seitz: That's the math I was using in calculating 3+ months of rest & rehab.
# posted by : 6/01/2006 10:51:00 AM
: 6/01/2006 10:51:00 AMNewer› ‹Older
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