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Thursday, October 05, 2006

Postseason: Division Series, Day 2 (And Predictions)

Neglect And Introduction

I've been a little neglectful of this site lately, and a lot of that has to do with following the ongoing scandal of Mark Foley and who knew what (pretty much the entirety of the House Republican leadership, for no less than two years). The GOP has busied itself passing bills that end the ancient right of habeas corpus — and don't start on me, apologists, until you can explain how paragraph 948a(1)(A)(ii) defining an "unlawful enemy combatant" doesn't somehow include every Democrat in the Senate, or every attorney suing the government over habeas violations, or anybody else the President doesn't like.

So, yeah, I've been really mad... and at the same time, happy to see these guys knee-deep in a scandal that's got legs, and other appendages.

Twins And A's

Anyway. It seems like for the last two days, every single team I've wanted to win has lost. First, there were the two Twins collapses, Tuesday's 3-2 rollover and then Wednesday's sloppy 5-2 loss featuring a Torii Hunter screwup in the outfield that turned a routine line drive into an inside-the-park home run for Mark Kotsay. (Call it a data point for those hoping to find him in the Angels' outfield next year.) Despite outclassing the A's in regular season VORP by the pitching staff, in both games, the starting rotation coughed up the lead. Of course, a lot of the reason for that superiority, Francisco Liriano, is watching these games on the sidelines.

I'm going to buck the trend here and presume the A's will finally go 1-9 on games in which they can advance when Oakland sweeps Minnesota; the Twins have that deer-in-the-headlights look that means they were surprised just to get this far, and don't know how to play good, fundamental baseball.

St. Louis v. San Diego

Who would have predicted a Jake Peavy meltdown that ended in a 5-2 Padres loss? Well, how about anyone who saw him lose his composure against Dodgers' third base coach Mariano Duncan? It's not that the Pad people are a bad team, but the Pads don't strike me as likely to advance, having lost another Game 1; maybe it's the absence of a hitter in the Albert Pujols caliber, but as we all know, just having one Hall of Fame bat in your lineup isn't sufficient, as the 2003 Giants found out.

Despite having the third-best pitching staff in the majors, the Padres' mediocre offense is still failing to get hits when the game is on the line and men are on base. Maybe it was last year's widely expected sweep that impels me to propose the Cardinals win in four.

Yankees v. Tigers

Nate Robertson? A trifle, a mere plaything, if you're the Yankees. Of course, the fact that Robertson gave up 8.88 H/9 in the regular season is an indicator this team may not last very long. For despite having the best regular season VORP in the majors, the Tigers' pitching staff has largely gotten there by dancing around the hits, though they don't give up many walks. Because of this, I'm going to project that the Yankees win in four, advancing to play the A's and take the ALCS in six.

Dodgers v. Mets

A pair of braindamaged baserunning blunders cost the team two outs and even more runs in a 6-5 loss that was much closer than it should have been. First, Kent decided he needed to tag up on a ball against the wall, reported to be 20 feet over Shawn Green's head; and then, both Kent and Drew ran home when neither had a chance of reaching safely. (As one wag said and I almost thought of doing, that was a 9-4-2 double play, and shouldn't the mast change as a result?)

The real catastrophe came when Grady Little decided to haul in Brad Penny, who gave up the winning runs in relief. Given his recent performance, we have to believe his season and postseason is done, but maybe the bigger problem is that Little, like Bobby Cox, refuses to manage the postseason differently than the regular season. In the regular season, you can afford to believe your ace starter when he tells you there's still gas in the tank (despite it being obvious to everyone watching that he doesn't) and leave him up there. While, as Jon says, the game doesn't mark the end of the series, it does put on display the kind of idiocy that only a team about to get swept by the Mets can exhibit.

ALCS

Whatever the A's have, I don't think it's enough to match the firepower of the Yankees, and so Yankees in six, and that may be generous to the A's. Rich Harden clearly isn't back 100%, and facing that lineup, the A's will need every tool in the shed.

NLCS

Without too much feeling, I'm going to predict the obvious and say Mets over Cards in five as St. Louis's threadbare rotation is no match for the New York offense, better balanced and more consistent than the one-two punch of Prince Albert and Scott Rolen.

World Series

Yanks over Mets in five in another dull Subway Series where the Yankees will use superior firepower to take advantage of the weakened rotation of the Mets. It's about like watching Nazi Germany fight Soviet Russia; neither side is all that likeable, and so you hope for a bloody stalemate.

Comments:
Mark Foley. Tom Reynolds. :)
 
Hee!

I live directly behind an elementary school, and a lot of parents park on my street to pick up their kids. I'm thinking of putting a banner on my lawn that reads something like, "No Pedarasts -- Vote For Jim Brandt".
 
I expect that the Repugnants will blame the victims. It's the pages fault. Those sluty little teenage boys flirted back, ya see!

Notice how the victim was recently outed by Drudge and Pajama Media. It is just about to start. Blame the Victim!

The Republicans are the moral leaders of this country... the party of Values.. they can't be at fault.
 
To be honest, I don't think it actually much matters, although I think we'll hear a lot about how it does. Say the guy is in fact 18. This brings up two questions:

1) Why did Foley resign so quickly? (A: because he was guilty.)
2) Why wouldn't it matter to the GOP base? (Who these days largely consists of homophobes anyway.)

They can spin this one all day. This is one scandal that resonates, and for good reason. Somewhere out there, there's a 16-year-old Foley's actually slept with.
 
By the way, Ernest, when was that picture taken? 2003/4? They took the murals down this year or last, IIRC.
 
Wrong-o, Mary Lou. Try again:

a person who, before, on, or after the date of the enactment of the Military Commissions Act of 2006, has been determined to be an unlawful enemy combatant by a Combatant Status Review Tribunal or another competent tribunal established under the authority of the President or the Secretary of Defense.

Liar, liar, liar.
 
And, as for this --

But I can tell when someone is trying to snowball me, such as when they say things like X-party are just a bunch of bad guys trying to ruin the country.

Yeah, I would agree with you, except that the party of morals and accountability decided that it wasn't necessary for anyone in a position of authority to launch an investigation earlier, and even encouraged him to run for office again.
 
Latest Drudge Report is that the entire thing was a prank gone awry... no seriously:

http://drudgereport.com/page.htm
 
2006 Mets = 2002 Angels?

SI's Tom Verducci:

"More proof that the losses of Pedro Martinez and Orlando Hernandez have been overrated: The Mets won Game 1 with what's been their style all season and what worked for the 2002 Angels: decent enough starting pitching not to let the game get away, then turning it into a bullpen game while a relentless offense keeps hammering away."

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/tom_verducci/10/05/tigers.yankees/index.html
 
I just hate having to see Denny Hastert everywhere. My got, he's fatter and looks more of an alcoholic than Ted Kennedy.
 
That annon was me. Capital Dodger.
 
I think the Democrats are closer to winning THEIR playoff series against the Republicans and it is a more compelling matchup, what with this critical late-inning error by Foley.
 
50 years from now the Republican Party will be roiling from some quixotic national scandal... we'll see the party leaders exclaim in unison, in order to protect their ass.. "It's all Bill Clinton's fault!"
 
No way do the Mets equal the Angels. For one thing, the Mets are the long favorites to take the NL; the Angels in 2002 were the underdogs. The Yanks must be grateful that the Angels aren't in the postseason this year...
 
Rob

I don't recall the exact year the pic was taken, but 2003 sticks out. I do remember it was taken just after a game during fireworks night. It's one of the most favorite things I've done there. Walking around the outfield was a dream come true.

btw, never underestimate the vacuousness of the fox news follower!
 

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