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Friday, November 10, 2006 |
Angels ZIPS Projections
Dan Szymborski has released his 2007 Angels ZIPS projections, which predicts:
- Vlad is going to continue his decline, though he will still be the best hitter on the team.
- Dallas McPherson would still amass frightening strikeout totals, but would otherwise end up with good looking rate stats. ZIPS also projects him with 380 AB.
- Mike Napoli will be what he was at the end of the 2006 season, not the beginning, though it does predict 20 dingers. Even so, those 20 dingers come with a .222/.328/.432 line.
- Garret Anderson's decline will continue, and he will be very close to terrible.
- Juan Rivera should be the team's starting left fielder barring an acquisition.
- What is Brandon Wood doing here?
- The pitching staff, particularly the starters but also including K-Rod, should be nails, though Scot Shields should be due for a pretty harsh downward ride. Generally, the non-Frankie part of the bullpen is going to be trouble.
- Joe Saunders, the lone exception to the above, will get kicked in the nads by the league.
- Don't expect anything from Colon, either.
- Santana will make a significant step forward.
- Jered Weaver will continue his impressive early run.
Comments:
Someone actually needed to use a modeling program to come up with these predictions? Before you say we can "draw several things" out of these projections, you could maybe post how well ZIPS has done in the past to predict the behavior of these players. Instead it would be better to say something like "ZIPS projections predict these things." (One of my pet peeves is mislabeling statistics, and you seem to be implying that these are coming true or, at the least, very likely to come true. In fact, this is really just an educated guess based on past statistics.)
Interesting that Napoli outperformed parts of his projection:
Actual: .228/.360/.455, 16 HR
2006 ZIPS: .210/.311/.403, 22 HR
He ended up with better rate stats, but worse counting stats. Part of that is because ZIPS thought he'd get 447 AB, but he only collected 268 in the real world.
Actual: .228/.360/.455, 16 HR
2006 ZIPS: .210/.311/.403, 22 HR
He ended up with better rate stats, but worse counting stats. Part of that is because ZIPS thought he'd get 447 AB, but he only collected 268 in the real world.
We're supposed to take seriously statistical projections based on a player's injured year?! Hello. People heal.
# posted by 
: 11/10/2006 04:09:00 PM
: 11/10/2006 04:09:00 PMNewer› ‹Older
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