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Thursday, December 28, 2006

Hot LIPS And Pitchers In Good Luck

John Lackey, Ervin Santana, Kelvim Escobar, and Jason Schmidt were unusually lucky on home runs this year based on their line drive rates, according to David Gassko's LIPS (Luck Independent Pitching Stats); so was the A's Joe Blanton. Strangely, Gassko likes Randy Johnson as a comeback prospect in 2007, but I'm not so convinced; too many other things are likely to go wrong with the two-time back surgery patient.

Comments:
Some statistics are pure garbage.

John Lackey was not "lucky" in 2006 (14 HR in 217 IP) any more than he was "lucky" in 2005 (13 HR in 209 IP). Nobody is that lucky. What we're actually seeing is the development of an excellent pitcher who just doesn't give up a lot of homeruns, period.
 

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