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Tuesday, March 27, 2007 |
Baseball Crank's EWSL Picks Angels To Win Division
The Baseball Crank projects the Angels to win the AL West as an 86-76 team using Established Win Shares Level. His comment on the Halos:
Injuries are a huge issue with the Angels right now. Colon is still rehabbing, and Weaver won't be ready for Opening Day, giving Saunders, at least, room in the rotation, and possibly Dustin Moseley. Figgins could be out several weeks. Dallas McPherson is sidelined for a year.I share his pessimism about Anderson, but his comment about Kotchman goes unsupported; is Kotchman's mono due to recur? Or is he expected to get a grounder take a bad hop to his jaw? So far, Casey's injuries have been of the freak variety, and there's been no indication that they'll recur; his terrific spring (.327/.357/.538) speaks for itself. As for Izturis, I've compared him unfavorably with Cabrera before, but I find myself agreeing with others who say he's about OCab's equal offensively while burning far fewer dollars.I could have used a subjective adjustment to bump up Kotchman, but then he has an injury history himself, and EWSL is also rating Rivera and Izturis high based on their prior playing time, and the Angels have a lot of flexibility to slide people between OF, 3B, 1B and DH. If Kotchman can't establish himself, Kendry Morales will eat his lunch. Also expect Brandon Wood to enter the picture, probably as a result of Cabrera getting dealt.
I'm pretty pessimistic that a 35-year-old Garret Anderson will produce and last in left; the sooner they get Rivera out there, the better. End of the day, the Angels are division favorites on the strength of their starting pitching - if the starters can get healthy, they will be formidible, if not they don't have the offensive firepower to overcome that loss.
Labels: angels
Comments:
Anderson gets a lot of razzing on this site, and I've done a little myself in the past, but I don't really think the organization is just singing a sweet song on Garret's health issues. I think he was playing injured...very injured...the last two seasons, and he does look much better out there at present. He seems quicker, livelier and is covering more ground. The guy is having a terrific spring...only two Ks in 40 plate appearances? My word.
# posted by 
: 3/27/2007 05:51:00 PM
: 3/27/2007 05:51:00 PM
I view it as Scylla and Charybdis: if the one don't get him, the other one will. Age or injuries, take your pick.
based on his Spring (comments and play), i'm a lot more optimistic about GA than i was a month ago -he still is only 34
After Jermaine Dye's bounce back these past two seasons, I am less pessimistic about GA...
# posted by : 3/28/2007 01:09:00 AM
: 3/28/2007 01:09:00 AM
I don't know Rob, I think you're riding the rhetorical rail to a predetermined pessimistic outcome.
As Randall Jarrell argued, nothing thwarts narrative movement more than the cocktail of humor and logical analysis. You end up spinning a pretty phrase, but move no closer to the truth.
As Randall Jarrell argued, nothing thwarts narrative movement more than the cocktail of humor and logical analysis. You end up spinning a pretty phrase, but move no closer to the truth.
# posted by : 3/28/2007 10:30:00 AM
: 3/28/2007 10:30:00 AM
I think the Kotchman statement goes unsupported because its common knowlege, he's one of the most injury prone players in the game. He was thought of as injury prone in the minors and that has held true in the majors.
Here are is number of games played in each full year of his career:
2002: 81
2003: 64
2004: 115
2005: 141
2006: 32
Which one looks like the outlier here? Other than one season with a whopping 141 games played, his career high is 115. You can attibute his injuries to 'flukes' but there not so fluky if they keep on happening. I forget who made it, but I like the comparison to Nick Johnson.
Here are is number of games played in each full year of his career:
2002: 81
2003: 64
2004: 115
2005: 141
2006: 32
Which one looks like the outlier here? Other than one season with a whopping 141 games played, his career high is 115. You can attibute his injuries to 'flukes' but there not so fluky if they keep on happening. I forget who made it, but I like the comparison to Nick Johnson.
# posted by : 3/28/2007 02:43:00 PM
: 3/28/2007 02:43:00 PM
He was thought of as injury prone in the minors and that has held true in the majors.
And what kinds of injuries were those? Outside of a torn hamstring in Fall, 2002, they were getting hit by a pitch in both the face and wrist. That's hardly the basis for a "injury-prone" tag.
And what kinds of injuries were those? Outside of a torn hamstring in Fall, 2002, they were getting hit by a pitch in both the face and wrist. That's hardly the basis for a "injury-prone" tag.
Kotch does have the freak injury bug, but doesn't it seem like it's always something? He really outdid himself with mono last year. This year he could really be on to something big.
One is injury-prone when one has suffers repeated injuries, particularly to the same area of the body, resulting from use.
It would be correct to say that Kotchman has been "accident-prone," in that a series of unintended events have caused him to suffer injuries; but there is nothing about any of them to suggest that he is injury-prone, and there is a huge difference.
It would be correct to say that Kotchman has been "accident-prone," in that a series of unintended events have caused him to suffer injuries; but there is nothing about any of them to suggest that he is injury-prone, and there is a huge difference.
# posted by : 3/28/2007 06:09:00 PM
: 3/28/2007 06:09:00 PMNewer› ‹Older
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