Proceeds from the ads below will be donated to the
Bob Wuesthoff scholarship fund.
Thursday, April 19, 2007 |
Dan Fox: Method To Mike's Madness?
Dan Fox at Baseball Prospectus thinks there's method to Mike's madness of letting Erick Aybar steal, thus making the final out of two games. Aybar, apparently, joins only a handful of players who got thrown out trying to steal a base to end a game twice in the same season. Aybar has never been a good base stealer, even in the minors, a fact I pointed out after the Cleveland game. But lo, new data comes to our attention regarding the April 5 game against the A's:
In fact, Scioscia had some additional information that informed his decision, as reported on MLB.com:But something even more fundamental informs the decisions made by both Bob Geren and Eric Wedge: in both cases Aybar replaced a slower baserunner. That is, Scioscia telegraphed his intention of stealing a base to the other bench. The Angels lost the game at that exact moment.With that combination--the time we had for the pitcher [coming to the plate] and throwing time [for the catcher]--I thought we had a better than 75 percent chance of making it. Erick got a decent jump. It took a perfect throw to get him, and they got it. If it was a 50-50 proposition, obviously we're not going to do it.Based on this added information, Scioscia had indeed calculated the odds beforehand, and found the risk acceptable. What he didn't know was that on the other bench A's manager Bob Geren was also thinking:We were talking on the bench, saying, 'Do you think they'll take a shot right here?' And we all agreed, 'Yeah, they might.' That's what makes them good.As reported on MLB.com, the bench then signaled Kendall to relay to Street to use a slide step and call for a fastball. Both were done, and Kendall fired a strike to second to nab Aybar. The result is an excellent example of the game within a game that baseball fans come out to the park to see.
Labels: angels
Comments:
Well, if you pinch run, you will always replace a slower runner with a faster runner, that's the point of it after all. But not every pinch runner actually tries to steal. Often, you just want to increase the chance of scoring on a double from first or single from third. Therefore, pinch running with Aybar can hardly count as "telegraphing your intention to steal".
That's just good, fun baseball from both sides, and in this case, it happened to work out for the A's.
On the other hand, having Willits try to steal late in the game on Tuesday night when the Angels were down by three--that was a bad decision, even though he ended up being safe, and he ended up scoring.
On the other hand, having Willits try to steal late in the game on Tuesday night when the Angels were down by three--that was a bad decision, even though he ended up being safe, and he ended up scoring.
I gotta agree with Bjoern. At least in the Cleveland game, it was an obvious pinch run situation, and it's not like you're going to bring in someone who isn't fast to pinch run. I don't think they were telegraphing anything.
He could have (and should have) used Willits, who has been a much better base stealer in his minor league career. If anything, by using a crappy base stealer as a pinch runner, I would have figured they'd be less likely to steal.
He could have (and should have) used Willits, who has been a much better base stealer in his minor league career. If anything, by using a crappy base stealer as a pinch runner, I would have figured they'd be less likely to steal.
Newer› ‹Older
 |
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.