Monday, May 14, 2007 |
Kotch, Weav Play Texas Hold 'Em: Angels 7, Rangers 2
From what I can tell, the big difference between last year and this year is that lefties are absolutely clobbering him, hitting an otherworldly .340/.415/.489 off him, where last year he limited them to .250/.299/.495. Even against righties, his 2007 numbers (.246/.290/.351) are appreciably above his 2006 line (.174/.239/.244).
(Update: The numbers above were as of the start of the day; following yesterday's game, his line against lefties has actually deteriorated to .356/.424/.525, though his ability to keep righties down improved to .211/.260/.296. Texas is a tough park for any flyball pitcher to survive in, let alone one whose preferred arm slot gives him an automatic disadvantage against lefties. It's easy to slam Kevin Goldstein's withering remark, "In the end, if he hits his ceiling, he’s basically his brother" made in early March, 2006; Jered seems to have more poise on the mound than his brother, but he still needs a pitch to neutralize lefties.)
Another difference between 2006 and 2007 is Weaver's BABIP (batting average of balls in play): this year, it's a remarkably high .364, good for third worst on the team (or second if you count the now-demoted Greg Jones, after Darren Oliver). Last year, Weaver was second best on the team with a .239 BABIP. His line drive percentage has gone up quite a bit, too, from 15.8% to 22.2%, which no doubt explains a large part of that discrepancy.
But as I said, Weaver seems to be doing a good job of decreasing those hard-hit balls. He only surrendered a single solo homer, and all other Texas hits were singles. Reminiscent of his days with Long Beach State, he even got five strikeouts looking, including one of the easily whiffable Sammy Sosa. (Chris Bootcheck got him again in this manner in the bottom of the eighth, and Sosa elected to argue balls and strikes with the umpire, earning himself an ejection.) It's now possible to be increasingly sanguine about Weaver's future chances in the game, provided he can drop his WHIP and associated peripherals some, something that should be relatively straightforward from here on out. Given that Weaver returned to the game still in his spring training mode, his early misfires were not unpredictable. He should be good at least through August.
The other troubled youngster on the squad who needs attention is, of course, Casey Kotchman, and what a way to come back and make a statement: a one-out grand slam. The rap on Kotchman lately is his tendency to tap out to second, and so taking advantage of the Rangers' offensively-minded park to go yard has to feel good. Maybe more importantly, Kotchman did something else he hasn't done in a while, collecting three walks on the day, finishing up 1-for-1. This Rangers series has been good to him, and he'll need to keep hitting to keep threats like Kendry Morales away from his starting job. Fortunately for Casey, it's looking more and more like that won't be a problem.
Reggie Willits was Reggie Willits, walking three times, getting a hit, and scoring a run. The first walk, a leadoff walk against Rangers starter Kevin Millwood, came after an eight-pitch at-bat. During that at-bat, Millwood re-injured his hamstring:
"I just kind of slipped or misstepped there against the first batter of the game, and it just got sore," Millwood said. "It's kind of the same thing as before, but feels like it's in a little bit of a different spot. In the second inning, I just couldn't get out over my front leg, and that's not an easy way to pitch."He's listed as day-to-day, but might have to go back on the DL if he can't work through it. As it was, the pitch he offered to Kotchman was a belt-high fastball over the plate; it was surprising Ron Washington left Millwood in through an inning and two-thirds.
Two more pitching performances worthy of note: Chris Bootcheck, who ably dispatched the Rangers in the eighth in order, and Darren Oliver, who can't seem to pitch an inning without giving up a run. If he still has an 8.00+ ERA by the end of the month, the clock starts ticking.
Labels: angels, rangers, recaps
"We" didn't expect that. I'm not exactly sure who did.
From what I can tell, the big difference between last year and this year
That's your first problem. Why must everything he does be viewed in comparison to what he did last year? What he did last year was off the charts. I don't think anyone expects him to do it again.
He's got a 3.62 ERA, striking out almost a batter per inning, and allowing roughly a home run every ten innings. That's pretty good in the AL. And it's pretty good for a second year pitcher. And it's REALLY good for a second year pitcher who's only made six starts this season, one of which was horrendous. Take out that one start, and his ERA this season is 2.35, and a homer every 15 innings.
If I looked at Dwight Gooden's stats and compared every year to 1985, I'd be an idiot. "Not as good as great" is not the same thing as "not good" or "mediocre".
Last year was great. Let's enjoy it. But he didn't sign a $20MM deal based on last year's accomplishments, so I'm not sure why anyone would hold his subsequent production up against that.
I think all we're trying to do is get you to realize that it's not hall of fame or bust. He can still be a very good pitcher even if he isn't lights out every single start. We're all happy when he does well, but no one's writing the inscription for his plaque just yet. At the same time, none of us are ready to bury him every time he struggles.
And even in a post where you praise him, you can't resist comparing his numbers to last year, which is a losing proposition. He's not competing against the Jered Weaver of 2006.
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