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Sunday, May 20, 2007

Lowe And Away: Angels 4, Dodgers 1

The first thing to strike you about this game is how, for once, Reggie Willits had absolutely nothing to do with the win. He didn't get on base one time, and in fact he tried to lead off the first with a bunt single. It was his first 0-fer game since the May 15 game against the Mariners. So eye-popping has his performance been, that you begin to take it for granted, but I'll take a pass on panicking just yet, thank you.

Instead, it was Orlando Cabrera, Vlad Guerrero (no surprise), Casey Kotchman (!), and Erick Aybar who all had two or more hits. Guerrero reached on a two-out double in the top of the first, and then, in another display of the sloppy fielding that has plagued the Dodgers in this series, Gary Matthews, Jr.'s routine grounder to third turned into a man on third, two out when Wilson Betemit bobbled it. Casey Kotchman immediately made the Dodgers pay for that, smacking a solid single to right that plated Vlad.

The Angels mostly obliged Derek Lowe in the next three innings. Erick Aybar's leadoff single in the second inning turned ridiculous when Aybar was caught stealing on a strike-'em-out, throw-'em-out double play to end the frame. The Angels didn't get a man on base in the next two innings.

The Halos finally broke through against Lowe in the fifth. Erick Aybar started off with a leadoff infield single, a tapper to Lowe that he could not get to first fast enough. Jose Molina followed up with another single, pushing Aybar to third, but then Tommy Murphy hit into a fielder's choice that erased Aybar at home with the contact play on.

Those hoping for great things from Reggie Willits were disappointed, as he struck out looking, almost getting Lowe off the hook. Fortunately, Cabrera kept the inning alive with a single to Wilson Betemit he couldn't handle, loading the bases for Vlad, who drove two home with an RBI single. That is, the Angels' death-by-a-thousand-cuts offense was once again on, and the Dodgers found themselves victims of it, perhaps more galling because this fusillade came with two outs.

Cabrera even advanced to third on a rare Rafael Furcal throwing error, and Matthews cashed him in, and yet Lowe, who had a relatively low pitch count, stayed in the game. He got out of the inning by getting Kotchman to pop out to Russ Martin, and thereafter held the Angels to only two baserunners. Erick Aybar reached on a swinging strikeout wild pitch in the sixth, and Kotchman hit a long, hard triple over the head of Andre Ethier near the top of the scoreboard in right in the third. But neither amounted to anything, and thus were the Halos limited to four runs, three earned, giving Lowe a quality start plus.

Escobar was dominant, three-hitting the Dodgers over eight, and posting a terrific comeback game to follow up his last, terrible, and brief outing. The Dodgers threatened only three times, scoring once. In the first, Furcal and Garciaparra got consecutive singles, but Jeff Kent grounded into a 5-4-3 double play marked by a very sharp bare-handed play by Izturis. In the fifth, Russ Martin singled, and advanced on a wild pitch during Ethier's at bat.

That at bat gives me pause to discuss Russ Martin's place in the lineup. Is there some reason Martin is held in such low esteem that Grady Little feels it necessary to post him all the way down in the six hole? Shouldn't he be batting at least fifth, or maybe even third? Martin is slugging almost a hundred points better than Nomar at the moment, and I just wonder how many games it will be before Grady Little realizes that Nomar isn't likely to do better than a .425 SLG for the whole season. Nomar was doing this for his July and August of last year, too, and so far for all of 2007. Martin's a catcher, true, and he's liable to fade in the second half, also true; his August 2006 line of .261/.350/.398 was hardly awe-inspiring, but much more of this and Nomar's going to find himself batting fifth or sixth.

Finally, the Dodgers did break through in the top of the ninth against a once again wobbly Scot Shields. Once more, he started his first batter with elevated pitches above the strike zone. He managed to get Furcal out on a called third strike and six pitches, without Furcal lifting the bat off his shoulder; but Pierre singled and Jeff Kent doubled to cash him in. Shields has had some bad outings lately, and he may not be all that valuable going forward. This was exactly the sort of game that he really had to do well in if he wanted to keep his eighth inning role intact, and once more, he left the mound with questions about his performance.

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Incidental notes:

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Comments:
Those final two sentences are just bogus. Just really goofy.

Scot came into this game with opposing batters hitting .154 against him. He's had an ERA of 1.69 in May. And you make it out as if he has something to prove or he's going to lose his set-up role? That he may have no future value? Come on, Rob, check your head for a second and tell me you regret writing that a little. Even after leaving today's game, he has a sweet 1.00 WHIP, and has appeared in 22 games.

Giving up three runs over eleven appearances and twelve innings does not make one a mop-up pitcher. Step away from the coffee cup, sir.
 
And yet you fail to recognize that he's been missing high, very high, over his last few appearances, which strikes me as consistent with his performance all year. Sure, his strikeouts are still in order, but he's given up four home runs already -- exactly half his 2006 total in less time. His 3.79 BB/9 is more than a walk over what it was last year. His bruised 3.38 ERA reflects that. He hasn't been the same Shields we're used to.

At no time did I suggest he has no future value, just that it isn't what it was. And really, that's fair.
 
And yet you fail to recognize that he's been missing high, very high, over his last few appearances, which strikes me as consistent with his performance all year.

He missed high on the first few pitches. He hasn't been missing high all season, or even all week. It's happened in select outings. He has a 2.38 ERA on the month. Yes, he's given up two HRs this month. He gave up 4 last August as well.

Sure, his strikeouts are still in order, but he's given up four home runs already -- exactly half his 2006 total in less time.

As I indicated, Scot usually gives up HRs in bunches. He gave up 5 HRs in four weeks time between July 29 and August 26 last season too, and had an ERA near 5 within that window.

But how you get from a mechanical flaw to the end of Scot Shields as we've known him is anyone's guess, not that you don't do it with nearly every player on the team. I'm certainly not the only one that reminds you of the central doomsaying tendency of this blog. If we could take all these black predictions for gold, K-Rod would be on the extended DL and Nap hitting .150 in AAA right now.

Do note:

he may not be all that valuable going forward

At no time did I suggest he has no future value, just that it isn't what it was.

At least read your own writing, Rob. "He may not be all that valuable" is pretty much saying "he may not have future value".

Though I fully admit to expecting to see the same treatment of Willits today given his 0-for. You opened with that dark cloud as your lede, but thankfully the blogfather showed restraint. A ray among the clouds!
 
Regarding Sheilds, maybe he was a bit off because he was out drinking and smoking cigs (this surprised me) at Goat Hill Tavern in Newport Beach until the wee hours of Sunday morning. Buddy of mine said he and Lackey were there and Sheilds was a chimney.
 
Goat Hill Tavern? Never been there, but I've definitely heard of the place.
 
At least read your own writing, Rob. "He may not be all that valuable" is pretty much saying "he may not have future value".

So you claim. I'll confess that I could have made clearer what I intended, but I still maintain that Scioscia's call was the most important view of what happened: he yanked Shields from what should have been a straightforward three-out non-save situation. That does not speak well of his performance.
 

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