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Monday, June 11, 2007

Joe Sheehan Repeats Himself

... but it's all good. Remember this golden oldie? Good, because you're about to get a second helping.
For all the talk about how well they run the bases and put pressure on the defense and such, the Angels’ offense is really a relatively simple machine. When they get the extra hits, they do well. When they don’t, they don’t score enough to win. If I told you nothing but the Angels’ rank in batting average in every season since 1999, you’d have all the information you needed to determine whether they had a good offense or not; the only exceptions were in 2003 and 2004, when even a good average was misleading.
Sheehan's on to something here (or else I wouldn't be quoting him). Let's take a look at the big three stats in the Mike Scioscia era:
Year   Avg  Rank   OBP   Rank  SLG  Rank
========================================
2000  .280  5th   .352   6th  .472  1st
2001  .261  11th  .327   9th  .405  12th
2002  .282  1st   .341   4th  .433  6th
2003  .268  7th   .330   8th  .413  9th
2004  .282  1st*  .341   6th  .429  10th
2005  .270  6th   .325   9th  .409  9th
2006  .274  9th** .334   10th .425  8th†
*Tied for first with Boston.
**Tied for 9th with Detroit.
†Tied for 8th with Minnesota.
If one thing really stands out here, it's that it does not pay to be in the bottom half of any of these statistics. The 2000 Angels, of course, couldn't pitch, with a composite team ERA of 5.02, good for ninth in the league. Despite getting into the postseason in 2004 and 2005 with mediocre-to-good team batting averages, their below-par OBP (in 2005) and SLG (both years) ultimately killed them in the postseason (and in 2004, they ran into a buzzsaw in Boston). If the aim is to just take the division, fine, admit as much; but if the aim is just a bit higher, well, that's different.

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