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Wednesday, June 27, 2007 |
Rick Wilton Responds On Jason Schmidt's Injury
Rick Wilton wrote me back regarding my inclusion of his post yesterday about Jason Schmidt:
By the title is your blog entry from Tuesday, June 26, it sounds like my analysis is Jason Schmidt was confusing.As it says in the last sentence of the analysis that you post in the blog entry "his ability to pitch effectively in 2008 is a longshot." The key term is pitch effectively. Schmidt is likely to start the year on the DL and be ready sometime during April-May. My analysis wasn't meant to say Schmidt won't pitching 2008. He should, just not nearly as well as he has in the past. I based my projection on several factors.
Are they making progress regarding recovery from labrum surgery? Absolutely. But it is still a delicate surgery of a crucial component of a pitcher's anatomy.
- A review of the seven years worth of labrum injury data that I have in my database strongly suggests pitchers who had surgery to repair a "tear" of the labrum rarely return to form the first year back from the surgery. Pitchers who have a "frayed" labrum repaired, which usually is a lot less damage than a tear, returned to a higher success level the first year after the surgery. While there are exceptions to the rule, a large majority struggle that first year. The "percentage play" says Schmidt will have an off season in 2008.
- An orthopedic surgeon who advises me on a semi regular basis has done has done his fair share of labrum surgeries on college and high school pitchers. He was the first to help me separate the difference between a frayed and torn labrum.
Hopefully this makes my position a little bit clearer. If not, drop me an e-mail.
Regards,
Rick Wilton
Publisher
The baseball injury report
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