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Monday, July 09, 2007 |
Real Or Unreal: Two ESPN Guys Take On Great Seasons By Martin, Lackey, Saito
Two ESPN writers, Will Harris and Adam Madison, take on the respective seasons of Russell Martin, John Lackey, and Takashi Saito. Madison takes the "unreal" (i.e., not a true career level) stance on all these players, and comes up with this whopper:
I would still hesitate to call Lackey a true ace, and I am quite skeptical that Lackey has improved enough to lower his ERA by 65 points and his WHIP by 11 points. Lackey was always a good-but-not-great pitcher whose best quality was health, and while this should definitely be a career year, he's likely pitching a little over his head. It's also worth noting that while he allowed 14 home runs in 217 2/3 innings last season, he already has allowed 11 home runs in 120 2/3 innings this season; that's still quite a low home run rate, but not close to last season's (or 2005, for that matter) despite his ERA being considerably lower.So, without any kind of backing, he tosses aside more-or-less steady progress (especially in crucial peripherals like WHIP and K/9) and claims Lackey's success is just due his health? There's certainly an argument about him tiring in the second half; he allows a .251/.313 /.386 against in the first half, but that spikes to .275/.337/.404 in the second half. Yet, it's a testimony to Lackey's competitiveness that those increases don't hurt him appreciably, as he has a 3.88 ERA in the first half and a 3.89 ERA in the second.
At least Madison can back up his comments about Saito with Saito's much higher 3.89 career ERA in Japan — but even that overlooks the fact that he was used all but exclusively as a starter there. In his two seasons used exclusively in relief, he posted a 2.13 ERA with 47 saves. (I will grant, however, that his 7.63 K/9 in Japan was nowhere near his insane 12.05 career rate he's posted in the U.S. That's headed down a bit this year, as he's striking out "only" 11.53 per nine, but that's still Eric Gagne territory.)
Labels: analysis, angels, dodgers
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