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Monday, August 20, 2007

Fish, Barrel, And Gun, Part 3 In A Series: On Juan Pierre's OBP

I don't generally take the MLB.com site reporting beyond their daily game recaps terribly seriously, and Jayson Addcox's latest is a decent enough example of why:
What is it about the on-base percentage that a player like Juan Pierre -- who leads the Dodgers in at-bats, runs scored, hits, stolen bases, triples and games played -- gets knocked for not having his higher than .350?

...

For Pierre, the criticism and constant reminders about his OBP is nothing new. In seven years in the Majors, he has put together a great resume including, a .350 OBP, but according to Pierre, it's brought up every year and it's always the same thing.

"When I'm hitting good, my on-base percentage is high and that's just the way it is," Pierre said. "The Dodgers knew that before I came here. It is what it is. I just go out there and play the game, and I don't get caught up in all of this."

The issue with Pierre is that he doesn't walk. Plain and simple, his OBP suffers because he averages one walk every 21 at-bats. On the season, he has just 24 walks in 510 at-bats, which is the lowest in the Majors. On the flip side, Pierre doesn't strike out often, either. He has struck out just 32 times this season, which is once every 15.9 at-bats, making him the hardest batter to strike out in the Senior Circuit.

The problem is really twofold:
  1. His career OBP is hardly germaine. Pierre has had only three full years above .350 OBP, logging three straight seasons with .320-.330 figures.
  2. Pierre's speed is a declining asset. This translates into fewer infield singles, thus depressing his batting average and therefore his OBP.
This represents the worst kind of disingenuousness. Even ignoring his noodle arm in center, his offensive faults might be tolerable in a young, cheap player, but are hardly acceptable in a player signed to be a leadoff man, the only real job he's suited for. The Pierre signing was a poor use of money at the time, one that looks only to get worse over time.

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Comments:
The use of career stats for players is usually disingenuous, not just in this case. Players' skills change over time, and I've always found it more useful to look at two- or three-year averages/aggregates when trying to assess, say, a player's current-year performance.
 
I don't know how to post as Suffering Bruin so I'm using the real name.

I made a half-hearted attempt at defending Pierre not long after feeling the glow of being in the same conference room as Frank McCourt. But Rob is right and I'm afraid terribly so... this is a signing that has a better chance to haunt than help.
 
Keith -- are you seriously arguing that, after nearly three straight years of .330-or-lower OBP's that Pierre isn't setting a new career plateau at that level? Because that looks like exactly what's happening.
 
Actually, Rob, I think Keith's point (I'm sure he will correct me if I'm wrong) is that Pierre's recent trend of .330-ish OBP is a better reflection of his current abilities and a more accurate predictor of future performance, rather than his overall career numbers.
 

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