6-4-2 — an Angels/Dodgers double play blog

• NL East: The Mets trounced the Marlins 13-0, with John Maine carrying a no-hitter through 7.1 innings. Combined with a 4-2 Phillies loss to the Nationals, the Phils and Mets are all locked up again for the division.
• NL West, Wildcard: The Padres lost 4-3 to the Brewers on an 11th-inning RBI single by Vinny Rottino off Trevor Hoffman. The Rockies are presently up 5-1 over the Diamondbacks; if they make that hold, they would be a game back of San Diego for the Wild Card with an elimination number of one. It would also put the Pads a game back of the Diamondbacks for the division.

  Update: In Colorado, the Snakes have already pulled starter Ed Gonzalez after three innings, and gone to reliever Jailen Peguero, who retires the side in order in the fourth.

  Update 2: Peguero gives up an RBI single to Garret Atkins in the fifth. 6-1 Rockies.

  Update 3: A Kaz Matsui walk with two on and two out chases Peguero, and Troy Tulowitzki blasts an opposite field homer for a grand slam off Dustin Nippert. 11-1 Rocks.

  Update 4: Bob Timmermann points out that the Diamondbacks clinched the division after today's Padres loss. Apparently this is under the rubric of Rule 33 Scenario #1; even with a tie, the best the Pads can hope for is the Wild Card.

  Update 5: Manny Corpas gives up a walk in the bottom of the ninth but staves off elimination for another day, 11-1 final. To stay in it, the Rocks need help from the Brewers tomorrow. Ubaldo Jimenez (4-4, 4.52) will go tomorrow with the Rockies' season on the line, and the Snakes will counter with Doug Davis (13-12, 4.25 ERA).

  Update 6: Brett Tomko will get tomorrow's start since the Padres are guaranteed no worse than a one-game playoff on Monday should they lose. However, I do have to question that from the standpoint that theoretically the Pads might be facing a much tougher opponent (i.e. the Rockies, Mets, or Phillies): why not go for the jugular against the Brewers Sunday? Bud Black provides an answer:

  Black said he'll stick with his plan of starting Brett Tomko on Sunday, preferring to save ace Jake Peavy for a potential one-game playoff on Monday.

  “We don't want to waste Jake if we don't have to,” Black said. “And if we need him for a playoff game, we have him right there – full rested, not on three days' rest.”

  Update 7: Baseball Prospectus now ranks the Padres as having a 75% chance of winning the Wild Card, with the Rockies getting a shot at the postseason via the four-way-tie 12.8% of the time. The Phils and Mets both tie at 5.9% for the Wild Card; BP's simulation shows the Phils as division champs 82% of the time.

  Update 8: And I hope this is the last one: Tiebreaker scenarios:

  If there's a four-way tie among the Mets, Phillies, Rockies and Pads:

  • The Mets and Phillies would play in Philly on Monday to crown the East champ.

  • The loser would then enter a three-game mini-tournament for which the Rockies, based on head-to-head records during the regular season, would have the option of trying to win at home and then on the road or just once on the road to advance.

  • If the Rockies choose to stay home, their opponent would be determined by the wishes of the team with the second-best combined head-to-head record; it'd be the Phillies if they're involved, but the Padres if the Mets drop into the three-way. That team could choose to play at the Rockies on Tuesday, but it's more likely that it would opt for a single game and travel to play the winner of Tuesday's game on Wednesday.

  • If the Rockies opt for the one road game, Tuesday's game would feature New York at San Diego, or San Diego at Philly, with the winner hosting Colorado on Wednesday.

  If there's a three-way tie among the Padres, Mets and Phillies: This scenario is possible only if the Padres and Rockies both lose Sunday and the Phillies and Mets both win.

  • The Mets and Phillies would play in Philly on Monday to crown the East champ.

  • Monday's losing team would play Tuesday to decide the Wild Card. The Padres would either host the Phils, or travel to New York.

Labels: diamondbacks, marlins, mets, nationals, padres, phillies, postseason, rockies

// posted by Rob @ 6:41 PM link  //  3 comments