6-4-2 — an Angels/Dodgers double play blog

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2007 Record: 94-68, first place
2007 Attendance: 3.4 million, second in the AL
2007 Payroll: $109 million, fourth in baseball
Key Free Agents (2007): RHP Bartolo Colon
Key Free Agents (2008): RHPs John Lackey (club option) and Francisco Rodriguez, SS-R Orlando Cabrera, RF-R Vlad Guerrero (club option), LF-L Garret Anderson (club option), OF-R Juan Rivera, LHP Darren Oliver
Key Long-Term Commitments: CF-S Gary Matthews, $10.5M/year through 2011; RHP Kelvim Escobar, $9.25M/year through 2009; RHP Scot Shields, $4.9M/year through 2010; RHP Justin Speier, $4.75M/year through 2010
Key Ready-Now Youngsters: 3B-R Brandon Wood, MI-S Erick Aybar, 1B-S Kendry Morales, RHP Nick Adenhart, LHP Joe Saunders
Needs: 1. LF; 2. DH
What They Should Do: Strong Buy. The philosophical question the Angels must ask is whether they’re competing with the Mariners, Rangers, and Athletics — or the Yankees, Red Sox, and Indians. If it’s the former, the team is probably strong enough to win the division unimproved. There are a few options for the corner slots that would be somewhere between league average and replacement level: make Reggie Willits your right fielder, endure another year of Garret Anderson in left, and Vlad becomes your DH, or permute that by moving Chone Figgins back to the outfield, and handing third base over to Maicer Izturis or Brandon Wood. Still, the incumbents are relatively weak — maybe not George W. Bush in '07 weak, but at least Carter in '80 weak—and the marginal gain from bringing on superstar talent is therefore relatively high. Nor are the Angels any longer a team whose future is ahead of it; a lot of prospects have either graduated (Howie Kendrick, Casey Kotchman) or burned out (Jeff Mathis, and now perhaps Wood), and the total talent stock is probably peaking right about now. Coming off five straight years of three million-plus in attendance, the Angels are at a crossroads, where they can massively inflate their franchise valuation and become Red Sox West with a World Series title, while still having some bailout options as a lot of money is coming off the books in 2008 or 2009. Alex Rodriguez and Barry Bonds should be target numbers 1 and #1A.

What They Will Do: Strong Buy. It’s perhaps the best individual fit for both Rodriguez and Bonds. I’d give 50-50 odds that the Angels snag at least one of them, with a decent chance that they go after both.

Los Angeles Dodgers
2007 Record: 82-80, fourth place
2007 Attendance: 3.9 million, first in the NL
2007 Payroll: $108 million, sixth in MLB
Key Free Agents (2007): LF-L Luis Gonzalez, LHP David Wells, RHP Rudy Seanez, 1B/3B-R Shea Hillenbrand, C-R Mike Lieberthal, 2B-R Jeff Kent (club option), LHP Randy Wolf (club option)
Key Free Agents (2008): SS-S Rafael Furcal, RHP Derek Lowe, INF-R Nomar Garciaparra, LHPs Joe Beimel and Mark Hendrickson, RHPs Brad Penny and Esteban Loaiza (club options)
Key Long-Term Commitments: RHP Jason Schmidt, $12M/year through 2009; CF-L Juan Pierre, $9.1M/year through 2011
Key Ready-Now Youngsters: OF-R Matt Kemp, 1B-L James Loney, 3B-R Andy LaRoche, SS-R Chin-Lung Hu, LHP Clayton Kershaw, RHP Jonathan Meloan, INF-S Tony Abreu
Needs: 1. SP depth; 2. CF
What They Should Do: Hold. Play. The. Kids. The Dodgers simply need to deploy their existing assets correctly, rather than seek help from elsewhere. To get a bit more specific about it, next year’s lineup should look as follows:

SS Furcal
C  Martin
1B Loney
2B Kent
LF Kemp
RF Ethier
3B LaRoche
CF Pierre

That group would be significantly better than league average at two positions (catcher and second base), slightly better than average at three positions (shortstop, left field, and probably first base), about average in right field, and slightly below at center and third (though not for long in Andy LaRoche’s case, especially with Nomar Garciaparra serving as his caddy). Overall, it’s one of the better position player groups in the league. So then you take the money you’re saving yourself on Luis Gonzalez and spend it on a mid-level starting pitcher, to round out a rotation with Penny, Lowe, Schmidt, and Chad Billingsley. Coupled with the great one-two punch in the bullpen, that is also an above-average group. That’s it. You’re done. You’ve spent next to nothing--and you still have a potential pennant winner on your hands. It looks like about an 88-win core that can creep into the 90s if the veterans stay healthy.
What They Will Do: Strong Buy. There is no bigger disconnect in baseball between the Dodgers’ ability to develop talent and the front office’s lack of appreciation for that talent. Matt Kemp is someone that they should be thrilled to have in their lineup for the next six years. Andy LaRoche’s time is now. So is Chin-Lung Hu’s, and the Dodgers should consider trading Rafael Furcal to make way for him.

Instead, all rumors are that Ned Colletti’s compass is pointed in the opposite direction. What I envision happening is something like the following: Kemp or LaRoche are included in a deal for a premium starting pitcher. And then-–guess what-–you do have a hole at left or third, and you do need to work the free agent market to repair it. But it isn’t a hole that existed before; it’s one that you’ve created yourself. The behavior is literally almost pathological, a kind of Munchausen by Proxy Syndrome: Colletti seems determined to make the Dodgers sick so that he can make them well again. Playing the kids-–these talented kids from your farm system that embody everything that used to be called the Dodger Way-–well, that’s just too darn obvious.

If the Dodgers feel like they have to have a 94-win club instead of an 88-win club-–and there’s no reason they should feel that way after drawing almost four million fans last year-–there are still a couple ways they could accomplish this. For instance, beat Curt Schilling’s second-best offer by 30 percent, which probably means something like $18 million. By definition, you’re overpaying, but the magnitude of the mistake is much, much smaller than trading Kershaw and Kemp for one year of Johan Santana, or signing Alex Rodriguez and permanently burying either LaRoche or Hu. Or, beat Torii Hunter’s second-best offer by 10 percent, and see if you can’t get someone else to eat most of Juan Pierre’s contract. Of course, all of this speculation may be premature; the Dodgers haven’t done anything yet this winter but replace Grady Little with Joe Torre, which surely has to be considered an upgrade. But based on their past performance, they’re not a club to which I’m willing to give the benefit of the doubt.

Labels: angels, dodgers, predictions

// posted by Rob @ 1:20 PM link  //  0 comments