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Friday, November 23, 2007

Why The Angels Are Glad They Landed Jon Garland

Just look at the stuff washing up on the shore:
Already, big names like Curt Schilling and Tom Glavine have signed, and Andy Pettitte, the best arm available on the free-agent market, has decreed that he'll either re-sign with the Yankees or retire. What's left? Middling stuff, for the most part. There's Carlos Silva (control artist, reliable innings guy, can be hit hard, likely to be overpaid), Kyle Lohse (promising injury history, capable of league-average innings, likely to be overpaid), Livan Hernandez (peerless durability, declining skills), and Randy Wolf (promising track record, coming off surgery, unknown quantity going forward, likely to sign low-base contract), among others. In other words, if you're looking to add an ace to your staff, then you're out of luck. On the other hand, if you need only to shore up the back end of the rotation, then you've got options.

If there's an ideal calculated risk available, then it's probably Bartolo Colon. Last season, Colon battled elbow problems for much of the year, and that limited him to 99.1 innings and a career-worst ERA of 6.34. On the other hand, after returning to the rotation in September, Colon posted a 3.95 ERA over the remainder of the season. Also, let's not forget that Colon has devastating stuff and won the AL Cy Young Award in 2005. Certainly, Colon's no sure thing — his health issues, poor conditioning and recent performance tell you that much — but he's also probably the best free-agent gamble left standing. Whether that's praise for Colon or an indictment of the current free-agent class is left to question.

I'll take Garland over the 2008 version of Colon every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

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