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Monday, March 24, 2008

Things I'm Looking Forward To In 2008, Angels Edition

What We Will See With The Angels

Things I'd Like To See

Wishful Thinking, Or, Things I'd Do If I Were Arte/Mike

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I have three points to bring up, so the most glaring goes first: since when did Frankie pass Percival on the franchise saves list?

The other two are basically that I am confused about how the Weave has not been a staff ace when he is only in his third year (plus it proves how smart the Angels were in not giving him $10 million since he didn't make the majors immediately) and how Adenhart has not been impressive in the minors (he may have a low K rate but all of his other stats seem pretty impressive).
 
Re the first point, I made a mental note to fact-check that one that I subsequently forgot. Good catch.

Weaver's problems so far have been principally those of inadequate preparation; I'm not sure what you're confused about. (That he hasn't had enough time to prove himself? Okay, but that's kind of what I said above.) And as for Adenhart, K rates are usually what you want to look at to predict future success. If Adenhart turns into a 3-4 guy, that's a step down from the hype. Not that he isn't/won't be useful, but definitely not ace material.
 
As for The Weave thing, I'll grant you that you were saying BP said that he isn't a staff ace, but I still think it is ridiculous to make a judgement over whether he is, which appears to be implied by the way you mention them. And besides, the $4 million bonus was basically the top the Angels were offering and they never budged from it despite Boras' call for $10 million. If the Angels knew they were guaranteed to get an ace, they would have paid the $10 million up front. Instead, they must have had some reservations, since they were willing to let him walk.

As far as Adenhart goes, I think "frankly hasn't been that impressive in the minors hitherto" is just plain wrong. He may not have had a great K rate and he may not even project that high (and I think he probably does), but I think he has certainly been impressive in the minors.
 
The line you have posted for Maicer Izturis is actually the line for Jeff Mathis. Maicer has been kicking ass this spring, and his line is .372 avg, .438 obp .512 slg. Also note that in 48 ST plate appearances, he has only two Ks, compared to 5 BBs. If the kid can stay healthy, he's gold. A clutch hitter with a clue at the plate, and an eminently reliable glove.

That said, I think it's time for some of us to revisit our reflexive hostility to Erick Aybar. Look, he's rough around the edges with his baserunning and his occasionally over-flashy defense, which results in errors. But I think it's rather unfair for us to judge him solely by his 2006 season at Salt Lake and fewer than 250 ABs in the majors, where he largely played (at age 22/23) off the bench and out of position.

The guy hit .311 avg .357 obp .453 slg in the minors, swiped an average of 50 bags in his best seasons, and has shown much better defense and consistency this spring. There's no question he's a hacker, no question he needs to improve his baserunning, but he's a plus hitter at defense-first position, and depending on career path, I think the scenarios that have him becoming Jose Reyes and Rafael Furcal are equally plausible.

So maybe we should just grant him a break for a few months, and give a raw young player the benefit of the doubt. He has a solid .294 avg .351 obp .549 slg line this spring, he's striking out less, and he's leading the team in runs scored. I'm generally an Izturis man, but I'm giving Aybar a pass until he crashes the family car.
 
Given the fact that Adenhart blew up today against the Snakes' A squad on a windy day in Arizona, it's probably not the best time to make the point, but I think projecting pitching success from minor league K9 rates is dicey at best. John Lackey's minor league K9 was 7.01, and like Adenhart, it dipped when he hit Arkansas. The comp Adenhart frequently gets, David Cone...his K9 in the minors was 6.64. Both Cone and Lackey hit AA at age 22, both are frontline starters, and both had K9s lower than Nick Adenhart's 7.98 career average.

And at age 20, Adenhart was two years younger than the competition last season.
 
all these words and not one about Jon Garland or Brandon Wood? Put them in the things I'm looking forward to.

Moreso Garland, but hopefully Wood's cup of coffee is more of a full course breakfast this year.
 
Emotionally, I have no expectations of Garland. He's a one-year rotation filler.

As for Wood, I've given up on him. If he proves to be even major league average at this point, we'll call it a win. His hacktastic spring proves well enough in my view that he is nowhere near ready for the Show, if ever he will be. At this point, he's a horribly overrated player whose only substantial plus is his age. He's cut back on his whiffs, true, but his power has declined, too.
 

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