Proceeds from the ads below will be donated to the
Bob Wuesthoff scholarship fund.
Monday, March 24, 2008 |
Things I'm Looking Forward To In 2008, Angels Edition
What We Will See With The Angels
- A full season of Howie Kendrick and Casey Kotchman. The Angels have previously babied or ignored both, to the team's general detriment. Kendrick stands to improve if all he does is stay healthy. Kotchman stands a decent chance of being something better than the team's answer to Mark Grace. It will take at-bats.
- Jered Weaver starting the season completely healthy. With both John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar likely out until May (and Escobar requiring the six-innings-and-done treatment most starts anyway), it's critical that the Angels have somebody ready to go to head the rotation. Weaver wasn't the most reliable starter for the Angels in 2007; he took two months' rest in the 2006 offseason and started his weightlifting too late for spring training. The ensuing tendinitis delayed his joining the rotation, may have contributed to a significant decline from his outstanding 2006 numbers, and caused some grumbling from the front office.
Baseball Prospectus pointedly carped that Weaver wasn't the ace the Angels thought they were getting when they gave him a $4M bonus in the 2004 draft. Maybe he hasn't had the right circumstances to prove it yet.
- Torii Hunter. I'm not a big fan of the contract, and frankly think it will be an albatross by 2010, but Torii Hunter is, from all accounts, a genuinely stand-up guy. The Angels haven't had a face-of-the-franchise player comfortable with that role since Tim Salmon, and I really think Hunter could ably fill in there. Unlike GMJ, he's got the bat to provide at least a little protection for Vlad. (It doesn't hurt that he's also from my wife's native Arkansas, too.)
- Vlad spending significant time at DH. This should have been done last year. His defense is decreasingly useful (and is often counterproductive), his balky knees are shredded from the years on that godawful Montreal turf, and so it's just time. Vlad's already having knee problems before the season starts up, so his objections to playing DH won't amount to much if Mike Scioscia is smart.
Things I'd Like To See
- Darren O'Day. Scot Shields' replacement? Flash in the pan? Phenom-of-the-week? Maybe, but he's just slaughtered the competition, today's wind-blown home run notwithstanding. The unknown and undrafted sidearmer (and would-be medical student) has just torn through minor league competition as he did in his junior and senior years at U. Florida. Good news: he made his biggest professional K/9 mark (9.72) with Rancho in the (often) high-elevation and (always) hitter-friendly Cal League. Trouble is, he was 24 when he accumulated that record, so he needs to show he can hack it at the majors in a hurry. The good thing is, he seems to be doing just that so far.
- Nick Adenhart. He's got more maturing to do, and frankly hasn't been that impressive in the minors hitherto, but his spring record seems to indicate a brighter future. A midseason callup may be the right thing, but with both Lackey and Escobar out, events may force the Angels' hand.
Wishful Thinking, Or, Things I'd Do If I Were Arte/Mike
- Find a trade partner for Gary Matthews, Jr. He's expensive, and the Angels are going to have to eat some if not all of his contract, but he has no place being on this team with Juan Rivera playing second fiddle. An early-season injury may postpone this, but the Angels have nothing but time: his contract goes on for another four years.
- Conversely, get a quality arm or two for Juan Rivera and/or Reggie Willits. Juan Rivera is probably the most valuable player on the Angels who doesn't have a starting position. Willits is just intrinsically valuable for his un-Angelic habit of working the count. Trouble is, injuries appear to have demolished the value of both players. (In Rivera's case, it's his broken leg; with Willits, a malfunctioning gallbladder was removed in January that was bothering him through the second half last year.) With Willits having options left, the Angels' path is clear, but Rivera, not so much.
- Long-term Frankie. Frankie blew four saves last year from June 24 through September 7, but he also had 12 converted saves, and two blown saves that became wins for the Angels. He's still
goton pace to earn more saves than anybody in franchise history, and looks like he could be doing that for at least another five years, always-predicted elbow problems notwithstanding. Pay the man. - Stop their overreliance on
Scot Shieldsand Francisco Rodriguez. With Shields starting the season on the DL, it looks like this is just about a given for him. As for Frankie, the best way out of that is with improved offense, something Torii Hunter should help with. - Lose the man-crush on Erick Aybar. I know there have been some extremely positive reports on Aybar this spring, but his past is loaded with negatives: stupidity on the basepaths, an inability to steal bases despite extreme quickness, a swing full of holes, and zero pop. The team's reliance on him at short is tempered only by Maicer Izturis' .333/.444/.400 line in spring training, while Aybar's hitting .280/.338/.540. Perhaps more tellingly in terms of the Angels' plans for him, Aybar has 50 AB while Izturis has only 40.
- Turn Kendry Morales into something useful. I don't know if that means converting him to an outfielder (with his speed, about all we could hope for is a God-don't-hit-it-to-leftfielder), or trading him for something. He's got value, but the Angels have just about decided he's not going to play for them thanks to blocking him at every possible position. A trade seems the most likely thing.
Labels: angels
Comments:
I have three points to bring up, so the most glaring goes first: since when did Frankie pass Percival on the franchise saves list?
The other two are basically that I am confused about how the Weave has not been a staff ace when he is only in his third year (plus it proves how smart the Angels were in not giving him $10 million since he didn't make the majors immediately) and how Adenhart has not been impressive in the minors (he may have a low K rate but all of his other stats seem pretty impressive).
The other two are basically that I am confused about how the Weave has not been a staff ace when he is only in his third year (plus it proves how smart the Angels were in not giving him $10 million since he didn't make the majors immediately) and how Adenhart has not been impressive in the minors (he may have a low K rate but all of his other stats seem pretty impressive).
Re the first point, I made a mental note to fact-check that one that I subsequently forgot. Good catch.
Weaver's problems so far have been principally those of inadequate preparation; I'm not sure what you're confused about. (That he hasn't had enough time to prove himself? Okay, but that's kind of what I said above.) And as for Adenhart, K rates are usually what you want to look at to predict future success. If Adenhart turns into a 3-4 guy, that's a step down from the hype. Not that he isn't/won't be useful, but definitely not ace material.
Weaver's problems so far have been principally those of inadequate preparation; I'm not sure what you're confused about. (That he hasn't had enough time to prove himself? Okay, but that's kind of what I said above.) And as for Adenhart, K rates are usually what you want to look at to predict future success. If Adenhart turns into a 3-4 guy, that's a step down from the hype. Not that he isn't/won't be useful, but definitely not ace material.
As for The Weave thing, I'll grant you that you were saying BP said that he isn't a staff ace, but I still think it is ridiculous to make a judgement over whether he is, which appears to be implied by the way you mention them. And besides, the $4 million bonus was basically the top the Angels were offering and they never budged from it despite Boras' call for $10 million. If the Angels knew they were guaranteed to get an ace, they would have paid the $10 million up front. Instead, they must have had some reservations, since they were willing to let him walk.
As far as Adenhart goes, I think "frankly hasn't been that impressive in the minors hitherto" is just plain wrong. He may not have had a great K rate and he may not even project that high (and I think he probably does), but I think he has certainly been impressive in the minors.
As far as Adenhart goes, I think "frankly hasn't been that impressive in the minors hitherto" is just plain wrong. He may not have had a great K rate and he may not even project that high (and I think he probably does), but I think he has certainly been impressive in the minors.
The line you have posted for Maicer Izturis is actually the line for Jeff Mathis. Maicer has been kicking ass this spring, and his line is .372 avg, .438 obp .512 slg. Also note that in 48 ST plate appearances, he has only two Ks, compared to 5 BBs. If the kid can stay healthy, he's gold. A clutch hitter with a clue at the plate, and an eminently reliable glove.
That said, I think it's time for some of us to revisit our reflexive hostility to Erick Aybar. Look, he's rough around the edges with his baserunning and his occasionally over-flashy defense, which results in errors. But I think it's rather unfair for us to judge him solely by his 2006 season at Salt Lake and fewer than 250 ABs in the majors, where he largely played (at age 22/23) off the bench and out of position.
The guy hit .311 avg .357 obp .453 slg in the minors, swiped an average of 50 bags in his best seasons, and has shown much better defense and consistency this spring. There's no question he's a hacker, no question he needs to improve his baserunning, but he's a plus hitter at defense-first position, and depending on career path, I think the scenarios that have him becoming Jose Reyes and Rafael Furcal are equally plausible.
So maybe we should just grant him a break for a few months, and give a raw young player the benefit of the doubt. He has a solid .294 avg .351 obp .549 slg line this spring, he's striking out less, and he's leading the team in runs scored. I'm generally an Izturis man, but I'm giving Aybar a pass until he crashes the family car.
That said, I think it's time for some of us to revisit our reflexive hostility to Erick Aybar. Look, he's rough around the edges with his baserunning and his occasionally over-flashy defense, which results in errors. But I think it's rather unfair for us to judge him solely by his 2006 season at Salt Lake and fewer than 250 ABs in the majors, where he largely played (at age 22/23) off the bench and out of position.
The guy hit .311 avg .357 obp .453 slg in the minors, swiped an average of 50 bags in his best seasons, and has shown much better defense and consistency this spring. There's no question he's a hacker, no question he needs to improve his baserunning, but he's a plus hitter at defense-first position, and depending on career path, I think the scenarios that have him becoming Jose Reyes and Rafael Furcal are equally plausible.
So maybe we should just grant him a break for a few months, and give a raw young player the benefit of the doubt. He has a solid .294 avg .351 obp .549 slg line this spring, he's striking out less, and he's leading the team in runs scored. I'm generally an Izturis man, but I'm giving Aybar a pass until he crashes the family car.
Given the fact that Adenhart blew up today against the Snakes' A squad on a windy day in Arizona, it's probably not the best time to make the point, but I think projecting pitching success from minor league K9 rates is dicey at best. John Lackey's minor league K9 was 7.01, and like Adenhart, it dipped when he hit Arkansas. The comp Adenhart frequently gets, David Cone...his K9 in the minors was 6.64. Both Cone and Lackey hit AA at age 22, both are frontline starters, and both had K9s lower than Nick Adenhart's 7.98 career average.
And at age 20, Adenhart was two years younger than the competition last season.
And at age 20, Adenhart was two years younger than the competition last season.
all these words and not one about Jon Garland or Brandon Wood? Put them in the things I'm looking forward to.
Moreso Garland, but hopefully Wood's cup of coffee is more of a full course breakfast this year.
Moreso Garland, but hopefully Wood's cup of coffee is more of a full course breakfast this year.
Emotionally, I have no expectations of Garland. He's a one-year rotation filler.
As for Wood, I've given up on him. If he proves to be even major league average at this point, we'll call it a win. His hacktastic spring proves well enough in my view that he is nowhere near ready for the Show, if ever he will be. At this point, he's a horribly overrated player whose only substantial plus is his age. He's cut back on his whiffs, true, but his power has declined, too.
As for Wood, I've given up on him. If he proves to be even major league average at this point, we'll call it a win. His hacktastic spring proves well enough in my view that he is nowhere near ready for the Show, if ever he will be. At this point, he's a horribly overrated player whose only substantial plus is his age. He's cut back on his whiffs, true, but his power has declined, too.
Newer› ‹Older
 |
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.