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Monday, April 28, 2008 |
Joe Sheehan On Casey Kotchman, Mariners
Talking about reality checks, rain or otherwise, gives Joe Sheehan pause to discuss Casey Kotchman:
Kotchman lost so much development time to injuries and illness that he fell below and then off the radar while advancing ever so slowly through the Angels’ system. He’s 25 now, but with the reps of a 23-year-old. Last year, finally healthy and finally permitted to play, Kotchman showed a glimpse of what he could do, with 37 doubles in 443 AB and more walks (53) than strikeouts (43). This year, he’s turned up the contact rate and power, striking out just five times in 89 at-bats, and posting an isolated power of .247. He’s in the top five in the AL in EqA and RARP, and he pairs that offense with an above-average glove. The power he’s shown so far is a little out of his range, the product of a fluky split in his homers and doubles totals, but the batting average and OBP aren’t. Look for Kotchman to hit .320/.410/.500 this season and continue being the Angels’ best player."A little out of his range"? Good lord, his number one comp through age 24 is David Ortiz. Not saying that that's the path he's headed down (God help the A's if it is, though), but plate patience of the sort he's displayed in the minors is just extremely rare.
Also, re the Mariners (all emphasis mine):
The AL version of the Diamondbacks a year ago, the Mariners didn’t come into 2008 with the kind of offensive upside the Snakes have, which is the biggest difference between the two teams. The M's have a .254 EqA and 117 runs scored, about a run a game less than what the D’backs are doing (note: the teams’ home parks make for disparate run environments). The age of the team’s position players makes it hard to project a big bounce—players such as Ichiro Suzuki and Kenji Johjima will move towards their career averages, but there’s no upside in the lineup at all. This is a below-average offense.The bullpen isn’t reprising its 2007 work, which was to be expected. Set aside J.J. Putz’s injury; Mariners relievers' run prevention last year was disproportionate to their underlying performances. They could pitch exactly as well as they did last year — and they haven’t — and still allow more runs. Adding Erik Bedard and Carlos Silva made the rotation better, but all that did was cover the ground the pen would be giving back. This was a .500 team last year, looked like a .500 team over the winter and into the spring, and is a .500 team now. Their 12-14 record is real, and they’re not going to be the division contender so many people expected them to be.
Comments:
I said it last year about Kotchman and I'll keep saying it. For a guy who's projected to top out at maybe 25 homers, he hit some LONG home runs last year. I mean like 15 rows deep in Anaheim. He wasn't scraping the wall. With all of those doubles, and the way he really put a charge into his homers last year, I think he could be a regular 25-30 guy, with maybe a couple 35 seasons in there.
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