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Friday, April 18, 2008

Rays Claim Dan Johnson Off Waivers, Long-Term Longoria

Tampa Bay has claimed A's first baseman Dan Johnson off waivers. The team DFA'd Calvin Medlock to make room for Johnson on the 40-man.

Also, the Rays announced a six-year deal that could be worth up to $44.5M, but has only $17.5M in guaranteed money. The trend of early signings of young players — before they even have really proved themselves — continues, and it strikes me as paranoid and unwise.

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Comments:
It strikes me as more wise to sign a player like Longoria for 6 years and $17.5-$19 million than to sign Matthews for 5 years and $50 million. The major problem in each case is injury, with the secondary problem being performance. In either case Longoria's contract is better. In addition the Rays now don't have to worry about a single one of his arbitration years (a huge thing for a small market team) plus they have the option to have him for the next three years after that at about $25 million. So, if Longoria performs up to his capability, that part will be a steal ($8-$9 million a year in 2014) AND they are locking up his entire prime? I am shocked the player would agree to this. Credit him for realizing that he may be sacrificing some bucks in three years but he is already guaranteed to make more money than he needs. This seems to be a recent trend (The Weave accepting less than initially requested from the Angels so that he could make sure and get the money and then prove he is worth more).
 
It strikes me as more wise to sign a player like Longoria for 6 years and $17.5-$19 million than to sign Matthews for 5 years and $50 million.
No doubt, but part of the calculation that goes into such deals is the recognition that the Angels have the pelf to squander. (Not saying I would have made that move, but it is one mitigating fact.)
 
Josh is 100% correct. If Longoria is as good as the Rays think he will be, they will own the first three years of what would otherwise be his free agency of 2014-2016, at prices which are favorable for a young talent *today*.

Imagine what seven years of salary inflation will do to a rate which is common today. In the meantime, Longoria is guaranteed $17.5M, regardless of how well he plays ($14.5M for the six years under team control, plus the $3M buyout of the three option years). The Rays can better predict payroll costs with each of these deals they write. It also makes Longoria an easier player to trade if necessary, since he is locked up for so many years.

The Rays are playing the futures market and locking down a player they feel will be not only a great player, but someone who can be the face of the franchise for years to come.
 
Wouldn't that be the all three years of his arbitration eligibility, though?
 
6 seasons of team control (2008-2013), then three years of team options (2014-2016) for what would be the first three years of free agency.

I think that is the key to the deal, since it keeps Longoria from bolting from the team as soon as eligible for free agency, and keeps him a Ray (potentially) through age 30.
 

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