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Friday, December 19, 2008

Broxton: Still The Same Guy

Here's an interesting Fangraphs story by David Golebiewski about Jonathan Broxton. I've had some concerns about his readiness for ninth inning duties; Golebiewski:
Broxton was used in plenty of critical situations in ‘08 (his LI was 1.7), but he didn’t perform as well as he had the previous two seasons. While he stranded runners at an 82.2% clip in ‘06 and 75.1% in ‘07, his LOB% fell to 67.7% in 2008. Broxton’s WPA was -0.14. With a low strand rate and a high BABIP (.328), however, he figures to improve going forward. Using Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) from The Hardball Times, we find that Broxton’s ‘08 performance (2.91) fit right in with his 2006 (3.33) and 2007 (2.75) showings.
Still troubling, though: "he didn’t fare especially well in high-leverage moments in 2008", which to me gets to the core of the argument against him as a closer, but at some point he needs to step up. Given his youth, it's reasonable to think he will. (Hat tip to thinkblue88 in today's DT thread (618).)

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