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Friday, April 03, 2009

Angels Suck Even More Than You Thought Possible, Says PECOTA

81-81 record, second place to ... the A's.

Yup, the season doesn't start any different this year, either.

The Dodgers are projected to 92 wins, 4 better than the second-place Diamondbacks.

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I call shenanigans. This team outperforms their pythag every year. 86 wins will win the division by 4.5.
We'll see, especially minus Frankie.
Feh on PECOTA. Didn't they have the Angels at 79 wins last year? Didn't they beat that by, oh, 21 games? Figure between 91 and 94 wins, then, assuming that two of the three starters are back by June.
Which means, if PECOTA does as well as it did last year, the Angels will be a 96 run team.

If the system keeps failing, then the system is no good. They had the Angels at 85 wins last year...a full 15 games off the mark. The average error for team W-L predictions in 2008 was 8.5 wins. That's pee your pants in public bad. From 2003 through 2008, its average miss was 6 wins. Meaning, peering through PECOTA's margin of error, one can hardly tell the difference between a 95 game winner and an 83 game winner.

Now, I think PECOTA is a relatively good prediction system for individual players who have had 3-5 years of recorded MLB playing time. But, because it's bad in predicting rookie performance, cannot anticipate injury, and does not accurately factor in the likelihood of young players ascending to the club mid-season and making an impact, it makes all sorts of bad guesses in aggregate.
96 runs? That would be a record for the worst offensive team ever.

(I knew what you meant.)
Alright, alright. You got me.

But 96 runs is not far off PECOTA's dire predictions. +/- 8.5 games!
love the blog. go dodgers. i just did a preview of the dodgers on my blog if you wanna check it out! www.baseballtalktv.com peace!
The Angels were projected with something like 86 wins before all the injuries to the starting pitching happened over the last month. Not to say PECOTA's prediction is lower than expected, but its not as if they're not trying to take everything into account.
I will make my predictions tomorrow at http://www.thesnodgrassmuff.com/

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