Friday, April 03, 2009
Angels Suck Even More Than You Thought Possible, Says PECOTA
Yup, the season doesn't start any different this year, either.
The Dodgers are projected to 92 wins, 4 better than the second-place Diamondbacks.
If the system keeps failing, then the system is no good. They had the Angels at 85 wins last year...a full 15 games off the mark. The average error for team W-L predictions in 2008 was 8.5 wins. That's pee your pants in public bad. From 2003 through 2008, its average miss was 6 wins. Meaning, peering through PECOTA's margin of error, one can hardly tell the difference between a 95 game winner and an 83 game winner.
Now, I think PECOTA is a relatively good prediction system for individual players who have had 3-5 years of recorded MLB playing time. But, because it's bad in predicting rookie performance, cannot anticipate injury, and does not accurately factor in the likelihood of young players ascending to the club mid-season and making an impact, it makes all sorts of bad guesses in aggregate.