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Wednesday, May 06, 2009

It's All Over: The Dodgers Have Won The Division

... or lost it, if you believe in proactive jinxery, but however that sort of thing wrings out, Dave Cameron is pretty sure the Dodgers have won the NL West with their insanely hot start:
Quite simply, there just aren’t any challengers to the Dodgers throne. At 20-8, they could play .500 ball the rest of the year and finish with 87 wins. The Giants would have to play .548 baseball (75-62) to finish with 88 wins and nip LA by a game. The Diamondbacks would have to play .570 baseball (77-58) to finish with 88 wins and squeak past the Dodgers. And that’s assuming that the LA falls apart and plays .500 baseball the rest of the year.

In reality, we should probably expect the Dodgers to play something like .550 baseball for the remainder of the season. They aren’t 20-8 good, but they’re an above average baseball team, and their +48 run differential is easily the best in baseball. If the Dodgers play .550 ball the rest of the way, they’ll win 94 games. I’m not sure anyone else in the rest of the division will win 84 games, much less 94.

Via BTF.

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Color me unconvinced. Randy Wolf hasn't pitched 200 innings since 2003. Jeff Weaver hasn't been a regularly effective ML starter since 2005. Kershaw won't pitch 200 innings if they have any interest in his longevity. Kuroda's already on the DL. I'd really like to know who's going to be in the Dodgers' rotation, aside from Billingsley, come August. By then, the bullpen is going to be burned out as well. Yes, the Dodgers have a fantastic lineup, and playing .500 ball the rest of the way might be sufficient, but who's to say they can even manage that with exactly one reliable starter? Colletti is going to have to pull of some deals similar to what he did last summer, only this time he's going to need arms, plural.
 
I was gonna say, I think I recall another NL West team that got out to an insanely hot start that stumbled down the stretch.
 

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