Monday, October 12, 2009
Jim Tracy Is A Moron: Phillies 5, Rockies 4
It should have been enough to get Joe Beimel to the mound, but Tracy left Street — who had already lost Game 3 of the series — in to self-immolate. And as in Game 3, Street was having trouble locating, throwing only 18 of 29 pitches in the zone. Tracy is paid to know this stuff and act on it; why doesn't he?
Thank God he's not managing the Dodgers anymore. Is there a managerial equivalent of the Grabowski Principle?
Since the Phils will now meet the Dodgers on Friday, the only hope I have is that Joe Torre remembers he has a lefty closer he can throw at Howard if a similar situation erupts in the ninth.
Your point may still stand; I just think this is one of the weaker pieces of supporting evidence to buoy it.
So, yes, Howard thumps righty pitchers. But Huston stumps lefty hitters.
I think most managers go with that match-up, based on the numbers, based on the history. But, given that Tracy's moronship hangs in the balance, I'd like to hear who wouldn't have.
Beimel: .258 avg .286 obp .484 slg .770 ops
Street: .167 avg .225 obp .265 slg .490 ops
I was buying your argument until I saw that. Splits only matter if the personalities follow the tendencies. Given six opportunities to save the game in 2009, Beimel blew five of them, and there's 280 points of difference between the OPS-against of players A and B.
Street blew it, but there's no way I put in Beimel to face Howard given those numbers and that history. Lefties knocked Beimel around last season, and Tracy clearly knew it.
It's the easiest thing in the world to argue in the negative, ignoring counter-evidence at whim, especially when you can throw things out the window like blowing five of the six save opportunities he was afforded.
How about this: make a positive statistical case that *Beimel* (not some replacement LOOGY) was the better pitcher. I don't think it can be done without a ton of omission and magical thinking.