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Thursday, June 03, 2010

Has It Really Been Since Sunday? And Other Silly Questions

Radio silence since Sunday, ayup, in which span —

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What's the odds of seeing the first baseman hit a walk-off grand slam home run in two consecutive extra inning 5-1 games? I just did: Kendry Morales on 5/29 in the 10th inning (LAA 5, Sea 1) and Adrian Gonzalez on 6/2 in the 11th inning (SD 5, NYM 1). Gonzo did not break a leg celebrating. Lifetime I have seen seven (7) walk-off grand slams: Davey Lopes, David Eckstein, Steve Finley, Nomar Garciaparra, Torii Hunter, Kendry Morales and Adrian Gonzalez. Before last Saturday my odds of seeing a walk-off grand slam were 291.4 to 1 (5 in 1457 games). Now my odds of seeing a WO GS are 208.4 to 1 (7 in 1459 games). Rounding down to 208 to 1 the odds are 43,264 to 1 against seeing a WO GS in two consecutive games.

If a WO GS occurs in the next game I go to my odds of seeing a WO GS reduce to 170 to 1 (8 in 1460 games). My odds of seeing a consecutive three-peat WO GS are 4,923,000 to 1 (170 x 170 x 170). My odds and Las Vegas odds no doubt differ. The only betting I do is buying the tickets to get in to see the game!

Note: These calculations do NOT limit the WO GS occurrences to 5-1 final scores and first basemen only.

The fan sitting two rows behind us in the Petco Park upper deck informed us that ump Jim Joyce had ruined Armando Gallaraga's perfect day with two outs in the ninth inning. I replied "Ouch!" Can't the official scorer record it as "E umpire" so that Gallaraga can at least get a no-hitter? I bet they are talking about Joyce and Gallaraga in the Umpire's Bar in Scottsadale, Arizona!
 

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