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Monday, May 21, 2012

Keynes Meets The Angels

I missed this Colin Wyers piece at Baseball Prospectus when it came out last week, but it's worth reading if only for this:
It is easy for people in positions like mine to invoke the Politician’s Fallacy in times like this:

1. We must do something.

2. This is something.

3. Therefore, we must do this.

And of course, it is in fact possible to react rashly, to mistakenly take to action when inaction is the most prudent course. On the other hand, it is much easier to counsel inaction when one has no power to enact any action at all and suffers no consequences from what happens if inaction occurs. In this case, rather than being actively detrimental, in the worst case this seems rather innocuous. That doesn’t mean it’s the right call, necessarily, but it does make it a very understandable sort of decision.

This, of course, is how we end up with stimulus and a lot of other fraud. Meanwhile, in Anaheim, Hatcher is gone, the Angels just lost a series to the lowly Padres, and Albert Pujols looks no closer to being a valuable member of the team than he did when Mickey Hatcher was seated in the hitting coach's spot.



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