6-4-2 — an Angels/Dodgers double play blog

Ground Rules

The way to evaluate any trade is whether it makes the team better. The trouble is, defining "better".

A great deal of ink has already been spilt over the VORP values of the players involved. Both Jon and John have pulled together analyses of the trade, both actual and rumored. For the sake of clarity, I'm going to lay down the rules here:

1. The offensive metric of choice is VORP, Value Over Replacement Player. If you don't know what it means or how it works, you could look it up. Short version: VORP is denominated in runs, telling you how much better one player is than a hypothetical, freely available replacement. (The actual availability of such players has yet to be shown by VORP's proponents in my mind, but take it for what it's worth.)
2. We won't use the better metric, Win Shares, and hence, Win Shares Above Average, for now because of the expense of calculating it historically. Win Shares represents an improvement over VORP because VORP really only measures the player's offensive value (except for pitchers), but Win Shares also accounts for defensive value. Historical Win Shares are not readily available online before 2003.
3. One advantage VORP does have over Win Shares is that Baseball Prospectus has a system -- PECOTA -- that projects a players' value over the course of a 162-game season. This system does so over a range of probabilities, from 10th percentile (horrible, worst case, most unlikely) to 90th percentile (Frank McCourt-style optimism). We'll be using the difference between projected VORP and actual VORP as a simple yardstick to measure a player's worth.

Catcher

Player	YTD VORP	Proj. VORP
Charles Johnson	15.8	24.3
Paul LoDuca	22.2	33.7
Brent Mayne	1.1	1.9
David Ross	-2.4	38.0

Before I launch into this, it's appropriate to start with a word about the difficulties inherent in forecasting player performance. Here's the blurb from the 1996 projection from Paulie's PECOTA card:

He was converted to catcher this season, after primarily being a first baseman and DH, and between Piazza, Huckaby, and eventually Ryan Luzinski, he has no future in the organization.

That said: Johnson is an offensive downgrade, no question. He might even be a defensive downgrade. Catcher is going to be a hole, and you have to believe Johnson has little desire to come to LA after the fiasco of his last stint here.

But, Paulie's a second-half snorer. His collapses are well documented, but for the record, let's recall them:

Year	Pre-ASB OPS	Post-ASB OPS
2001	.999	.852
2002	.842	.609
2003	.812	.575

Let's get one thing straight now: this is a bad deal immediately for the Marlins. They have to be betting he'll hit better in a platoon situation than he will if he has to catch every day. It's not a bet I would be willing to make.

Emotionally, I miss Paulie already. He was a bright spot in so many of the recent Dodger teams, the one guy you could look forward to seeing at the plate -- and behind it. He did everything right, worked hard, and never had the cocky arrogance of the players Kevin Malone infamously brought into the club. The guy was having a return to his 2001 form. After the frustrations of last year, when the club's pitching neared perfection but couldn't hit worth a damn, after the team finally crawls into first place in the division and Paulie's resurgence is a big part of that -- DePodesta shipped him off.

The dispassionate trade analyzer might say "buy low, sell high". And a 32-year-old Paulie's value will never be higher. But that doesn't mean I won't miss seeing him in the lineup.

Update 5:44 pm: The news that Charles Johnson will stay in Colorado came as maybe not much of a surprise, considering how the Dodgers would have likely tossed him out at the end of the year anyway. But what that now means is that it's a crapshoot as to who is going to be the starting catcher effective tonight; my guess would be Mayne, but Ross hasn't been much better. Though PECOTA projects him to have a higher upside, he hasn't shown that ability outside of last year's at bats. If anything has gone wrong with this trade, it's right here.

First Base/Right Field

Player	YTD VORP	Proj. VORP
Shawn Green	17.5	74.3
Hee Seop Choi	27.7	36.1
Juan Encarnacion	0.7	34.6

This should tell you something about PECOTA: it doesn't understand injuries very well. Green's projected 74.3 VORP corresponds to a .313/.401/.598, 41 HR season. It's clear we won't get that from Shawn, but Hee Seop Choi's clearly on pace to meet his most optimistic projections. This move benefits the club immediately; Choi gives the club a nice answer until James Loney is ready, if he ever is.

Green, hard as it is to believe, represents a substantial upgrade over Juan Encarnacion. For Florida, this represents a taking out of the trash for the Dodgers. Juan's $8M, two-year contract isn't a big impediment to the club; one almost wonders whether he'll now get that shoulder surgery he should have had in last year's offseason.

Defensively... well, this should prove a wash all around, I suspect.

Left Field

Player	YTD VORP	Proj. VORP
Jayson Werth	11.1	24.3
Steve Finley	23.6	23.1

Finley is kicking PECOTA's expectations all over the place. What's bothersome about the idea of moving Werth is that his 11.1 VORP comes in 124 AB vs 451 AB for Finley's 23.1 VORP. Werth could be a starter for many years, but much depends on the fallout of the Arizona trade(s) -- or not. As with Penny (who I'll discuss in a moment), I'd just as soon draw the line here.

Update: as of 12:55 PDT, KFWB reports no deal for Steve Finley. Probably still too early to tell, but that gives me a lift.

Pitchers

Player	YTD VORP	Proj. VORP
Wilson Alvarez	39.1	20.3
Guillermo Mota	24.4	36.0
Brad Penny	33.3	49.5
Randy Johnson	59.5	42.4

First, I should mention that every one of these guys is on target to exceed their 90th percentile VORP projections.

I like the idea that the trades stop here, frankly. Penny is a good guy, there aren't any huge difference makers entering the NL West, and we can own him for a while. Between him and Choi, we have a pair of nice young players who'll be around for a while. Penny replaces Wilson Alvarez, who takes over the job that Mota had as setup man for Gagné. ESPN now reports Johnson won't go anywhere, and I'm not unhappy with that. Many of the same arguments that I made regarding the Angels pursuit of RJ still hold with the Dodgers.

The question is Johnson. We have an hour left, and he could change his mind. Update: ESPN says the answer is no. Again, I'm happy.

Chemistry

I'm a firm believer that chemistry comes from winning, not the other way; it's rare that you have a team where the players can't stand each other and win anyway. Chemistry isn't causative, but it's a pleasant thing if you can get it. Losing Paulie hurts, but we'll get over it.

Age

If the Dodgers don't acquire Johnson and Finley, they suddenly have answers to next year and the year beyond. I like that a lot.

DePo isn't afraid to make trades. The question is, will those trades work? I think the Dodgers have already come out on top of these deals; they work for us. Let's see if anything else comes up.